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Spotlight

Latin American

September 2001

Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika, Spotlight 9/2001, Latin America

DOMESTIC ECONOMY GDP change Inflation Budget balancein % (real) in % (year-end) in % of GDP2000 2001f 2002f 2000 2001f 2002f 2000 2001f 2002fArgentina -0.5 -1.4 1.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.6 -3.5 -2.7 -0.4Bolivia 2.4 2.0 4.0 3.4 4.0 4.2 -4.5 -4.4 -4.0Brazil 4.5 1.8 3.0 6.0 6.0 4.3 -4.6 -6.0 -4.0Chile 5.4 3.4 4.7 4.5 3.2 3.0 -1.6 -2.1 -1.3Colombia 2.8 2.3 2.5 8.8 9.5 9.0 -3.6 -3.0 -2.8Costa Rica 1.7 1.0 3.0 10.2 10.5 10.0 -3.7 -3.5 -3.2Dominican Republic 7.8 2.5 4.5 9.0 6.5 6.0 -2.1 -0.5 -1.5Ecuador 2.3 4.0 4.2 91.0 20.0 8.0 1.5 -1.0 -0.8El Salvador 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.3 3.5 2.7 -3.0 -4.0 -4.0Guatemala 3.3 1.5 2.3 5.1 8.0 9.0 -2.2 -2.5 -2.7Honduras 4.8 3.0 3.6 10.1 9.5 9.0 -4.5 -5.5 -5.0Jamaica 0.8 1.5 2.2 6.0 6.7 6.2 -5.3 -3.7 -4.5Mexico 6.9 1.1 4.2 9.0 4.9 5.2 -1.1 -0.8 -0.5Nicaragua 4.3 2.5 3.5 9.9 8.0 7.9 -15.2 -15.0 -14.0Panama 2.7 2.0 2.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5Paraguay -0.4 0.0 2.0 8.6 10.5 12.5 -5.7 -3.5 -2.6Peru 3.1 0.0 3.0 3.7 3.0 3.2 -3.0 -2.2 -2.1Trinidad & Tobago 4.0 3.9 4.5 5.6 6.0 5.0 1.6 0.0 -0.3Uruguay -1.3 -0.5 2.0 5.1 9.0 8.0 -4.2 -3.5 -2.5Venezuela 3.2 2.5 2.5 13.4 13.0 22.0 3.9 -3.0 -4.0Latin America (17 countries) 4.1 1.2 3.1 7.0 5.4 5.5EXTERNAL SECTOR Current account balance Import cover Gross foreign debtFOREIGN DEBT in % of GDP in months* in % of exports*2000 2001f 2002f 2000 2001f 2002f 2000 2001f 2002fArgentina -3.3 -2.4 -2.5 8.1 6.4 6.9 382 369 370Bolivia -5.6 -4.5 -4.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 427 354 300Brazil -4.2 -5.2 -4.6 4.1 3.9 3.9 347 324 298Chile -1.4 -2.2 -2.9 7.0 6.3 6.1 155 161 153Colombia 0.0 -3.4 -3.7 6.0 5.5 4.7 218 242 245Costa Rica -5.6 -6.4 -6.7 1.8 1.5 1.2 58 67 66Dominican Republic -5.2 -2.8 -1.7 0.6 0.8 1.2 55 57 56Ecuador 8.8 -5.1 -5.8 1.8 1.3 1.4 238 278 287El Salvador -3.2 -4.9 -7.1 3.8 3.7 3.0 111 124 127Guatemala -4.9 -4.0 -4.3 3.7 3.4 2.6 131 132 129Honduras -3.4 -5.5 -4.1 4.5 4.0 3.8 207 207 184Jamaica -3.8 -6.7 -7.8 2.6 2.8 2.4 119 134 135Mexico -3.1 -3.2 -3.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 88 86 81Nicaragua -25.5 -24.9 -24.6 2.7 2.4 2.0 734 777 729Panama -9.4 -5.9 -4.5 0.8 1.1 1.2 77 80 78Paraguay -1.8 -3.2 -3.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 105 111 117Peru -2.8 -2.4 -1.6 8.3 8.2 7.8 275 283 273Trinidad & Tobago 7.7 1.6 -0.4 3.8 4.3 4.9 54 58 62Uruguay -3.1 -3.3 -2.7 5.9 6.4 6.5 205 219 207Venezuela 11.1 3.8 2.1 6.4 4.3 3.6 90 109 117Latin America (17 countries) -2.5 -3.1 -3.1 3.9 3.5 3.4 176 177 170* goods and services f=forecast

LALALALALATIN AMERICA ATIN AMERICA ATIN AMERICA ATIN AMERICA ATIN AMERICA AT A GLANCET A GLANCET A GLANCET A GLANCET A GLANCE

Dresdner Bank Lateinamerika, Spotlight 9/2001, Latin America

Latin America at a glance

LATIN AMERICA: No change to fundamentals_____________________4FOCUS: End of currency board system in Argentina?_______________6

Country analyses

ARGENTINA: What impact will the IMF deal have?_________________8BOLIVIA: A new generation____________________________________14BRAZIL: Crisis management___________________________________16CHILE: Economic trend reversal?________________________________22COLOMBIA: Economy lacking in dynamism______________________28EL SALVADOR: Assistance with reconstruction____________________34JAMAICA: In the debt trap_____________________________________36MEXICO: Congress must deliver________________________________38NICARAGUA: Liquidity bottlenecks_____________________________44PANAMA: Debt buyback_______________________________________46PARAGUAY: Touch and go_____________________________________48PERU: Moment of truth________________________________________50VENEZUELA: "Soft" exchange controls___________________________56

Financial market indicators Latin Amercia

Stock market indices__________________________________________62Bond yield spreads___________________________________________63

Global economy - figures and forecasts

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