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James Montier
Global Strategist+44 207 762 5872 james.montier@sgcib.com
February 2009
1
Volatility: not unprecedented nor unpredictable
2
Not a Black Swan
Black Swans
Unpredictable
Massive Impact
Ex-post rationalizationPredictable Surprise
At least some wereaware ofthe problem
The problem gets worse overtime
Eventually explodes into crisisFive impediments to recognising predictable surprises:(i)Over-optimism(ii)The illusion of control(iii)Self-serving bias(iv)Myopia(v)Change blindness
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CIMA 2009 Montier Presentation
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