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Avoiding US
-
China Military Rivalry
 
By Michael Swaine
A new Cold War between the US and China isn’t inevitable. But better inter
-military communication will be needed to stop one.
Despite the mostly friendly nature of President Hu Jintao’s state visit to Washington last month,
the potential still exists for the US-China relationship to become much more adversarial,especially in the military-security arena.A combination of deepening strategic distrust (found most notably within the militaries of the
two countries), China’s steady acquisition of maritime power projection capabilities, the
persistence of bilateral tensions associated with territorial
issues along China’s maritime periphery, and a growing sense in China of the United States’ economic decline could prod both
countries to view Asia as a zero-
sum game and look for ways to counter each other’s military
actions. If this is to be prevented, the two countries will need to start considering more long-range, strategic communication.Since the 1990s, China has increased its military spending by an average of more than 10 percentper year as it seeks to modernize its defence forces. Beijing now has close to 50 modern dieselsubmarines, and is developing a new class of nuclear submarine. China also has new short-,intermediate-, and long-range ballistic missiles
 — 
both conventional and nuclear
 — 
while itsmedium-range missiles can already reach many parts of Asia, including Japan and several US
airbases. As a result, China’s growing capabilities and its ability to reach beyond its borders are
causing concern not just within the Asia-Pacific region, but in the West as well.C
hina’s neighbours— 
notably Japan and Southeast Asian nations
 — 
are worrying about how they
might counter China’s growing ability to regularly deploy forces in the region, and are concerned
that China will directly confront other countries over territorial and resource issues in the SouthChina Sea and East China Sea.In response, Japan is shifting the deployment of its military southward, while Southeast Asiannations are acquiring greater offshore capabilities. They are also looking to the United States
 — 
asth
e region’s dominant military power—to provide a counterbalance to China’s growing power.
 
 
And Washington isn’t sitting idle. It is deploying more forces to Guam, reaching a better 
understanding with Japan about the use of force during crises, increasing surveillance and
 patrolling along China’s coast, selling more arms to Taiwan to deter Beijing from using coercivemeans, and engaging in classified efforts to counter China’s missile threat to US warships.
 But as the two militaries grow more suspicious of one another, they are driving the competitiveand adversarial dimensions of the overall bilateral relationship. The concern is that perceptionson both sides
 — 
Washington an increasingly see a more assertive and aggressive China, andBeijing a United States in a prolonged period of decline
 — 
will fuel the feeling of strategicrivalry. The assumption that military competition will ultimately lead to a Cold-War typesituation is the biggest threat to stability.But there are things Washington and Beijing can do to avoid this outcome.First, the two countries must engage in a strategic dialogue at the track-two
 — 
or semi-official
 — 
level with military and civilian figures outside government. By holding open-ended talks that gobeyond the official level, these participants can address the medium- and long-term implicationsof the current military trajectories and the specific territorial, economic, and political issues
driving the countries apart. While leaders won’t officially be involved in the discussions, track 
-two participants should maintain close contact with them to keep them informed of developments and seek their input.Second, both sides must sustain and strengthen military-to-military links, as US DefenceSecretary Robert Gates signalled during his recent visit to China. These ties must be insulatedfrom the overall ups and downs of the bilateral relationship, to avoid feeding mistrust andcurtailing understanding between the militaries.Third, Washington and Beijing need to assess the military dynamic over Taiw
an. China’s
military continues to deploy forces along the coast, while the United States continues to sell armsto the island. As time goes on, China will be less likely to tolerate US military aid to Taiwan.Washington should therefore reconsider its current strategy and contemplate broaching aconversation with China about mutual constraint.Fourth, both militaries should expand ways of cooperating on other security issues. China isalready participating in international piracy controls in the Gulf of Aden. Further cooperation inareas such as disaster and humanitarian relief, counterterrorism, or other non-traditional threatswould help boost the overall relationship.All of these steps will involve strengthening the incentives and abilities of both militaries tocooperate, while avoiding the use of worst-
case assumptions about the other. It won’t be easy— 
both militaries will need to make a sustained commitment to communicate frequently, at both thepersonal and operational levels, and with as much candour as possible. This in turn will require astrong commitment to such military contact on the part of senior civilian leaders on both sides.Unless this happens, however, progress on strategic issues will be limited, hostility could grow,and both sides could become more resolute about defending their respective military objectives.
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