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Beneath the Surface: July 2009 Colorado Blogger Survey
A 2010 GOP Youth Movement?
Penry, Frazier, Stapleton, and Gessler May Be Counting On It
In four of the five races tested in the July 2009 Colorado blogger survey, age presented a significantfactor in participants' choices. Participants under age 40 had a marked preference for Josh Penry forGovernor, Ryan Frazier for U.S. Senate, Walker Stapleton for State Treasurer, and Scott Gessler forSecretary of State. Gubernatorial candidate Scott McInnis, Treasurer candidate J.J. Ament, andunannounced Secretary of State hopeful Nancy Doty outperformed their rivals among olderparticipants. In the U.S. Senate race, younger participants were significantly more likely to choose oneof the candidates who already has announced than their older counterparts.Does this indicate a significant youth movement within the Republican Party heading into 2010? Itwill be worth watching as the long election cycle unfolds.
Governor's Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Among 182 participants ages 18-39,
Penry beat McInnis 55-32
, with Maes picking up 13 percent
•
Among 122 participants ages 40-49, Penry beat McInnis 51-40, with Maes picking up 9 percent
•
Among 184 participants ages 50 and up,
McInnis beat Penry 58-30
, with Maes getting 12 percent
U.S. Senate Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Ryan Frazier won all three age groups
– garnering 42 percent of support from participants ages18-39, 39 percent from ages 40-49, but only 28 percent from ages 50 and up
•
Younger participants are more satisfied with the current slate of Frazier, Buck, and Tidwell
•
Two-thirds of participants ages 18-39 chose one of the
declared
candidates
•
Forty-seven percent of participants ages 50 and up chose one of the
undeclared
candidates
State Treasurer's Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Walker Stapleton beat J.J. Ament 49-36 among the 18-39 age group
•
 J.J. Ament beat Walker Stapleton 49-33 among the 50 and up age group
•
Support for the two candidates was even among the 40-49 age group
Secretary of State's Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Declared candidate Scott Gessler topped Nancy Doty 66-34 among the 18-39 age group
•
Gessler topped Doty 59-41 among the 40-49 age group
•
Doty topped Gessler 66-34 among the 50 and up age group
“Natural Tickets” of McInnis-Beauprez? Penry-Frazier? Maes-Tidwell?
Typically candidates in party primaries prudently choose not to endorse candidates in other contestedraces. But the notion of “natural tickets” emerges when profiles are taken of those who have givenearly preferences of stated support in both the Governor's and U.S. Senate races for 2010.
•
Supporters of Scott McInnis are much more likely to also be supporters of Bob Beauprez
•
Supporters of Josh Penry are much more likely to also be supporters of Ryan Frazier
•
Supporters of Dan Maes are much more likely to also be supporters of Cleve Tidwell
 
If You Like Primaries, You Probably Like Penry, Frazier, and Stapleton
Those Who Disagree Opt for McInnis, Beauprez, Ament, and Gardner 
Survey participants agreeing that primary contests are beneficial for the Republican Partyoutnumbered those who disagreed by 341 to 134. Consistently higher numbers of those who agreedremained undecided in the respective races. But among the pro-primary crowd, those with statedpreferences went more heavily for Josh Penry for Governor, Ryan Frazier for U.S. Senate, WalkerStapleton for State Treasurer, and Tom Lucero for 4
th
Congressional (though Lucero still trailedGardner in both categories). Anti-primary people opted for McInnis, Beauprez, Ament, and Gardner.In the races for Governor, U.S. Senate, and Treasurer, youthful support matched optimism in theprimary election process. Since primary elections are underway in all three races, will this have anybearing on the conduct by the respective candidates? It will be worth watching.
Governor's Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Among 274 participants who agreed primary contests are beneficial, Penry beat McInnis 47-38
•
Among 118 participants who disagreed, McInnis beat Penry 55-37
U.S. Senate Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Among 270 participants who agreed primary contests are beneficial, Frazier topped his nextclosest opponent (Beauprez) 37-17
•
Among 109 participants who disagreed, non-candidate Beauprez edged Frazier 31-28
State Treasurer's Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Among 153 participants who agreed primary contests are beneficial, Stapleton beat Ament 50-33
•
Among 72 participants who disagreed, Ament beat Stapleton 60-32
4
th
Congressional Race (among participants indicating a preference, “None of the Above” excluded)
•
Among 204 participants who agreed primary contests are beneficial, Gardner topped Lucero 51-38
•
Among 99 participants who disagreed, Gardner topped Lucero 72-24
McInnis Tops Among Supporters' Confidence at General Election Success
Participants were asked not only whom they support but also whom they believe to be the strongest2010 Republican candidate for both the Governor's and U.S. Senate races. Unsurprisingly, in all cases,large majorities chose the same name for both questions. However, Scott McInnis outperformed thefield with 95 percent confidence, followed in order by Ryan Frazier (85 percent), Josh Penry (82percent), Bob Beauprez (79 percent), Ken Buck (75 percent), and Cleve Tidwell (71 percent).
Governor's Race
•
95 percent of Scott McInnis supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
82 percent of Josh Penry supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
68 percent of Dan Maes supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
U.S. Senate Race
•
85 percent of Ryan Frazier supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
79 percent of Bob Beauprez supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
75 percent of Ken Buck supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
71 percent of Cleve Tidwell supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
•
70 percent of Dan Caplis supporters also believe he is the strongest GOP candidate
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