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National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Interagency Fire CenterPredictive ServicesIssued: July 1, 2010
Next Issue: August 2, 2010
Wildland Fire Outlook – July through October 2010
The July, and August through October, 2010 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. Theprimary factors influencing these outlooks are:
•
 
Grassland Fuels:
Abundant new fine fuel growth across the northern Great Basin, Northwestand Northern Rockies is expected to lead to active grassland fires during periods of hot, dryand windy conditions.
•
 
Drought:
Drought conditions continue to persist over portions of Alaska and the leeward sideof the Hawaiian Islands elevating fire potential.
•
 
Southwest Monsoon:
Moisture associated with the monsoon is expected to gradually movenorthwestward from New Mexico throughout the month of July, and temper fire potentialacross much of the Southwest by mid-July.
 
•
 
Tropical Activity:
Predicted wet conditions combined with an expected active tropicalseason in the Atlantic will likely lead to lower fire potential across portions of the southeasternstates.
 
Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additionalresources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
 
Past Weather and Drought
 
June was colder than normal over the Northwest and Northern Rockies and warmer than normal inthe East. Precipitation over the last 30 and 90 days are shown below. Drought is forecast to persistacross portions of Alaska, the Northern Rockies, western Wyoming, the western Great Basin,northern California, and the leeward side of the Hawaiian Islands. Alaska temperatures were nearnormal for June although the month began with much above normal temperatures. Precipitation wasnear normal throughout the central interior and slightly drier than normal in the north.
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/monitoring/drought/ 
 
www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.htmlhttp://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ 
 
Weather and Climate Outlooks
El Niño Southern Oscillation conditions are currently neutral. La Niña conditions are likely to developby late summer into early fall. The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s monthly andseasonal outlooks reflect a combination of neutral/La Niña impacts, soil moisture conditions, the latestnumerical weather model output (out to 14 days) and long-term climate trends.
A = Above
normal,
B = Below
normal
, N = Normal
,
EC = Equal Chances
of Above/Below/Normal.www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
 
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