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National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Interagency Fire CenterPredictive ServicesIssued: November 1, 2010
Next Issue: December 1, 2010
Wildland Fire Outlook – November 2010 through February 2011
The November, and December 2010 through February 2011 significant fire potential outlooks areshown below. The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:
•
 
La Niña:
Persistent warmer and drier than normal weather is expected this fall and winterover the southern tier of states contributing to increased fire potential.
•
 
Drought:
Areas of long-term dryness that stretch from northeast Texas to the Appalachianswill lead to above normal fire potential during the fall and early winter.
•
 
Fuel Dryness:
Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expandabove normal fire potential westward across the southern Great Plains and into eastern NewMexico.
Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additionalresources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
 
Past Weather and Drought
 
October was warmer than normal across much of the central and western U.S., with cooler thannormal conditions across the Southeast and Northeast. Rainfall over the last 30 and 90 days areshown below. Drought is forecast to persist or develop across the southern tier of the country asshown below. Alaska was drier than normal and slightly warmer than normal for the month ofOctober; however, a storm system brought snow cover to the remainder of previously snow free areasof south-central Alaska at the end of October.
www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/monitoring/drought/ 
 
www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.htmlhttp://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ 
 
 Weather and Climate Outlooks
La Niña has continued to strengthen and is expected to continue through the winter. The NationalWeather Service Climate Prediction Center’s monthly and seasonal outlooks are based primarily onthe typical La Niña impacts. Other factors include soil moisture conditions, the latest numericalweather model output (out to 14 days) and long-term climate trends.
A = Above
normal,
B = Below
normal
, N = Normal
,
EC = Equal Chances
of Above/Below/Normal.www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
 
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