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National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Interagency Fire CenterPredictive ServicesIssued: December 1, 2010
Next Issue: January 6, 2011
Wildland Fire Outlook – December 2010 through March 2011
The December, and January through March 2011 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below.The primary factors influencing these outlooks are:
•
 
La Niña:
Persistent warmer and drier than normal weather is expected this winter over thesouthern tier of states contributing to increased fire potential.
•
 
Drought:
Persisting and developing drought across the south-central and southeast U.S. willlead to above normal significant fire potential during winter.
•
 
Fuel Dryness:
Increasing dryness across the southern tier of the U.S. this winter will expandabove normal significant fire potential westward into southern New Mexico and southeastArizona by March.
Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization of additionalresources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
 
 Past Weather and Drought
 
November was warmer than normal across much of the country except for cooler than normalweather over the Southeast coastal states. Rainfall over the last 30 and 90 days are shown below.Drought is forecast to persist or develop across much of the southern half of the nation as shownbelow. Alaska was warmer and wetter than normal, with unusually heavy rain for this time of the year.
 www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/monitoring/drought/ 
 
www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.htmlhttp://www.hprcc.unl.edu/maps/current/ 
 
 Weather and Climate Outlooks
A strong La Niña is expected to continue into the spring of 2011. The National Weather ServiceClimate Prediction Center’s monthly and seasonal outlooks are based heavily on the typical La Niñaimpacts. Other factors include soil moisture conditions, the latest numerical weather model output(out to 14 days) and long-term climate trends.
A = Above
normal,
B = Below
normal
, N = Normal
,
EC = Equal Chances
of Above/Below/Normal.www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/page2.gif
 
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