National Report Located Here
For Southern and Central California
S
EASONAL
O
UTLOOK
Issued: January 2nd, 2012 Valid for: February 2012 –April 2012
Weather Discussion
After a relatively cool and wet autumn, the weatherpattern quickly changed to a much drier one duringDecember 2011. Several locations reported record, ornear-record low December rainfall, especially overcentral California where winter snowfall has been largelyabsent in the Sierras. Most of the Sierra Nevada’s sawlittle if any precipitation, leading to the one of the latestseasonal closures of high elevation roadways in recentmemory. The severe precipitation deficit in Decemberleft snowpack at a paltry 10% of average by the end of the month. This low precipitation amount stands in starkcontrast to December 2010 when an “atmospheric river”of moisture brought steady precipitation for much of themonth
(Figures 1 and 2).
Last winter, the Eastern Pacific was in a moderate tostrong La Niña condition. This season, the current ENSOindex shows the La Niña conditions are in the weakcategory. Long range models indicate the La Niña mayslowly strengthen this spring before dissipating during thesummer.While the weak La Niña may partially explain the lack of rainfall this year, other atmospheric factors may beresponsible for the unseasonably dry weather. Lastwinter, the circulation across the northern hemispherewas largely influenced by a negative or cold phase, ArcticOscillation and Northern Atlantic Oscillation. Thisresulted in a large area of low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska which was able to spawn several impressive stormsin late 2010. This season, the low in the Pacific has beenreplaced by strong high pressure which has kept the stormtrack well to the north of the district. This shift may bethe result of a strongly positive oscillation in the Arcticand Northern Atlantic Oscillation
(Figure 3).
This oscillation generally lasts for a few weeks and it isreasonable to expect this oscillation to de-amplify orswitch to a negative oscillation in coming weeks.However, the underlying La Niña condition will likelycontinue through the rest of the “rainy season.” Weak LaNiña’s tend to result in below average precipitation forthe region, especially over Southern California.Therefore below average precipitation can be expectedthrough the rest of the winter and into the early springmonths.
Summary:
•
Temperatures near to slightly above normal.
•
Precipitation below normal,especially over Southern California.
•
Near normal large fire potential through March, then above normal potential over several areas by the beginning of April.
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