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National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Interagency Fire CenterPredictive ServicesIssued: January 1, 2012
Next Issue: February 1, 2012
Wildland Fire Outlook – January 2012 through April 2012
The January 2012 through April 2012 significant fire potential outlooks are shown below. The primaryfactors influencing these outlooks are:
•
 
La Niña:
La Niña conditions will continue over the tropical Pacific and typical weatherpatterns will return to the US after intraseasonal circulations disrupted the classic La Niñapatterns over North America in December.
Drought:
Significantly above normal precipitation fell in December over parts of the frontrange of the southern Rockies, the central Plains and the Ohio Valley. Parts of central andwest Texas, southwest New Mexico and southern Arizona also received above normalprecipitation. Much of the West, the central and southern Rockies, the northern Plains andFlorida received less than 50 percent of normal precipitation for the month.
•
 
Fuel Dryness:
Fuel conditions continue to improve across most of the U.S. As winterprogresses and La Niña returns the northern tier of the country will see fuel conditions that arenot conducive to significant fires. The far southern portions of the country, however, will beginto experience drier and warmer periods as La Niña sets in. Even though these will not be asstrong as last year, expect fuels conditions to dry significantly and support significant firesacross the Southwest and the far Southeast.
Note: Significant fire potential is defined as the likelihood that a wildland fire event will require mobilization ofadditional resources from outside the area in which the fire situation originates.
 
Past Weather and Drought
 
Intraseasonal circulations over the tropical Pacific disrupted typical La Niña patterns over NorthAmerica in December, bringing precipitation to much of the Southwest and the central and southernPlains while keeping much of the Great Basin, the Northwest and the northern and central Rockiesvery dry. Anomalous high pressure across the Northwest allowed troughs to swing across thesouthern US. Several snow and rain events across Arizona, the southern and central Plains and theOhio Valley brought precipitation of 150 to 300 percent of normal to those regions. The New Mexico-Colorado-Kansas-Texas Panhandle region received over 400 percent of normal precipitation.Meanwhile, most of the West, including the southern and central Rockies and the trans-Pecos regionof Texas, received less than 25 percent of normal precipitation. Much of Minnesota and Florida werealso below normal. Long term drought remained over most of the south central and southwesternstates as well as Georgia. Short term drought worsened over Minnesota, the eastern Dakotas andnorthern Iowa. December temperatures were split from the Northwest to the central Gulf states – twoto six degrees cooler in the West, two to six degrees warmer in the East with as much as much as 10degrees below normal in the southern Rockies and 10 degrees above in Minnesota and the Dakotas.
U.S. Drought Monitor (top) and Drought Outlook (bottom)
(from National Drought Mitigation Center and the Climate Prediction Center)
 Departure from Normal Temperature (top) and Percent of NormalPrecipitation (bottom)
 
(from High Plains Regional Climate Center)
 
 
Weather and Climate Outlooks
As intraseasonal disturbances (i.e., Madden-Julian oscillations) weaken, typical La Niña patterns areexpected to return to the U.S. January temperatures are expected to be below normal for much of theWest, including most of Alaska, and the Northern Rockies while above normal temperatures areexpected for most of the eastern half of the US. January precipitation is expected to be above normalfor the Northwest and the Northern Rockies. Above normal conditions are also expected for the GreatLakes region, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and the upper and mid-Mississippi Valley. Belownormal precipitation is expected across most of the southern third of the country from California to themid-Atlantic coast. In Alaska, the west and central interior are expected to see above normalprecipitation while the southern coast will see below normal conditions. Temperatures for February toApril are expected to be below normal along the West coast, the Northwest, the Northern Rockies, thenorthern Plains and southern Alaska. Above normal temperatures are expected for the south centraland most of the eastern US. Precipitation is expected to be above normal for the Northwest andnorthern Rockies, the Midwest and upper and mid-Mississippi Valley. Below normal precipitation isexpected across much of the southern third of the country as well as the southern Alaska coast.
Feb – Apr 2012
Top row: One-month (January) outlook for temperature (left) and precipitation (right). Bottom row: Three month (February-April) outlook for temperatures (left) and precipitation (right).
(from Climate Prediction Center/NOAA)
 
Jan 2012
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