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NIPCC
vs.
IPCC
Addressing the Disparitybetween Climate Modelsand Observations:Testing the Hypothesis of AGW
Heartland Institute ICCC-6Washington, DC June 30, 2011
(Prof.) S. Fred Singer University of Virginia/ SEPP <singer@sepp.org 
>
 
ree aor esus:
“Gallia omnia est divisa in partes tres” 
 
1. Controversy about “Consistency” of Temp Trendsfrom Observations and GH Models
2. Overcoming the Chaotic Uncertainty of ClimateModels vs. Structural Uncertainties
3. News about Climategate, Hockeystick -- and whatwe can say about the reality of the temperature dataof the 20
th
century.
 
1. Disparity between Modeledand Observed Temperature Trends
Attribution
of observed warming trends to GH-gasincreases is based largely on claimed agreementbetween observed (tropical) tropospheric trends andmodeled ones [Santer et al., IJC 2008, Fig 6]. Weshow that the
claimed consistency is spurious.
IPCC-AR4 claims AGW (i.e., GHG warming) based on arapidly rising global mean surface (GMS) temperaturesince 1979. We can show that this is simply ameaningless “curve-fitting” exercise, depending onsuitable choices of forcings and model parameters.
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