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The International Research Center for Energy and Economic Development (ICEED)'s Documents
“Unsold Solar: A Post-Mortem of Papua New Guinea’s Teacher’s Solar Lighting Project,” by Anthony L. D’Agostino and Benjamin K. Sovacool
Papua New Guinea’s electrification rate positions the country among the lowest in the world. Given its overall low population density, household income levels, and geophysical barriers, energy access is unlikely to be greatly expanded through grid extension in the near future. Renewable energy technologies present an alternative solution and have been promoted through various donor-driven efforts in recent years. One such example is the World Bank-assisted Teachers Solar Lighting Project, scheduled for implementation from 2005-2010, which aimed to sell 2,500 solar home lighting kits to out-posted schoolteachers while also supporting the growth of local, renewable energy industries. The project was terminated before its target end-date and only one solar kit was sold. To understand this apparent failure, we review the project by drawing from in-country fieldwork conducted in March 2010 and semi-structured research interviews held with representatives from the implementing agencies, relevant public and private sector bodies, and school-teachers targeted for participation. In addition to the traditional techno-economic barriers that impeded diffusion of renewable energy, we posit that social and cultural factors were also significant barriers. Features like the country’s wantok system, Papua New Guinea’s recent entrance into the cash economy, low financial literacy levels, and real concerns about equipment theft and vandalism provide additional explanatory power over the revealed disinterest in household solar power. (By Anthony L. D’Agostino and Benjamin K. Sovacool, “Unsold Solar: A Post-Mortem of Papua New Guinea’s Teacher’s Solar Lighting Project,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 36, no. 1, copyright 2012).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:1,531Uploaded:01 / 22 / 2012ShareAdd to collection“The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the European Stock Market (1998-2008): A Sector Analysis,” by Mohamed El Hédi Arouri
This article extends the understanding of oil–stock market relationships over the last turbulent decade. Unlike previous empirical investigations, which have focused largely on broad market indices (national and/or regional indices), we examine short-term linkages in the aggregate as well as sector by sector levels in Europe using different econometric techniques. Our findings suggest that the reactions of stock returns to oil price changes differ greatly depending on the activity sector. (This article appeared in the Journal of Energy and Development as Mohamed El Hédi Arouri, “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the European Stock Market (1998-2008): A Sector Analysis,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 2, pp. 165-180, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:519Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimations Based on GARCH-Type Models: Evidence from Energy Commodities,” by Samir Mabrouk
In this article, we compute the one day ahead VaR and ES based on same GARCH-type models including RiskMetrics, GARCH, FIGARCH, FIAPARCH, and HYGARCH models assuming three alternative distribution innovations; normal, Student-t, and skewed Student-t distributions. Our empirical study is focused on four major energy assets time series: WTI, Europe Brent, New York Harbor conventional gasoline regular, and Los Angeles Gas covering in daily frequency the period (1989-2008). The out-of-sample forecasting volatility was conducted for three time horizons; one, five, and fifteen days-ahead. Results reveal that the FIAPARCH model with skewed Student-t distribution outperforms the other models since it provides the best forecasts for one day ahead VaR and ES for both short and long trading positions. This model is appropriated for considering tail fatness, asymmetry, and long-range memory in energy assets volatilities. (This article appeared in The Journal of Energy and Development as Samir Mabrouk, “Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Estimations Based on GARCH-Type Models: Evidence from Energy Commodities,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 2, pp. 279-314, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:523Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Inflationary Impacts of Energy Price Adjustments in Iran: An Input-Output Approach,” by Mehdi Sadeghi and Mohammad Javad Sharifzadeh
The considerable misalignment between domestic energy prices and their border counterparts has caused several economic questions about the current energy pricing system in Iran. The opportunity cost of domestic energy consumption is more than 10 percent of the Iranian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Thus the government planned to increase the prices of gasoline, gas oil and fuel oil to their border prices during the 4th Development Plan (2005-2010) but the parliament rejected this proposal. The main goal of this study is measuring the inflationary effects of increasing energy prices using Input-Output tables. Contrary to most of the former studies that used wages as an exogenous variable, we will model it as an endogenous variable. The conclusions drawn from this study demonstrate that increasing prices of petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity simultaneously will lead the economy to experience substantial inflation rates. It also showed that doubling only the prices of natural gas and electricity creates more tolerable inflationary consequences. Remembering that about one-third of the opportunity costs of domestic energy consumption are due to these energy carriers, reforming natural gas and electricity prices should be a priority. In addition, the government must take a comprehensive approach that includes non-pricing policies along with policies concerning prices. (This article was published in the Journal of Energy and Development as Mehdi Sadeghi and Mohammad Javad Sharifzadeh, “Inflationary Impacts of Energy Price Adjustments in Iran: An Input-Output Approach,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 2, pp. 181-194, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:288Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Air Pollution and Household Income Distribution in India: Pre- and Post-Reform (1983-1984 to 2006-2007),” by Kakali Mukhopadhyay
The environmental problems in India are growing rapidly. The increasing economic development and a growing population are putting a strain on the environment, infrastructure, and the country’s natural resources. The present study estimates the emissions relating to fossil fuel combustion in India and also identifies the factors responsible for changes in emission during the pre-reform and reform periods (1983-1984 to 2006-2007). Results show that changes in final demand are the major factor which accentuated the increase in the emission level. The study further differentiates the contribution of households by different income groups in respect to fossil fuel-based pollution in India and its responsible factors. The study finally concludes that higher and middle income groups are generating more pollution due to excessive and inefficient ways of consuming commercial energy, while the lower income group is a minor contributor. (This article was published in the Journal of Energy and Development as Kakali Mukhopadhyay, “Air Pollution and Household Income Distribution in India: Pre- and Post-Reform (1983-1984 to 2006-2007),” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 2, pp. 315-339, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:437Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Analysis of Energy Intensity and Its Determinants in 16 OECD Countries,” by Musiliu O. Oseni
Understanding the mechanisms of change in energy consumption has been a centre of attention since the first oil price shocks in the early 1970s. A popular method of investigating these mechanisms has been an adoption of decomposition technique to analyse the relative impacts arising from fundamental improvements in energy use and the structural changes in an economy. This study investigates the determinants of energy intensity in 16 OECD (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries from 1975-2007. The Fisher ideal index was adopted to decompose changes in energy intensity into improvements in the use of energy and changes in the structures of economies. The results show that structural changes have reduced energy-use in most of the countries while efficiency is more pronounced in some others. Overall, the results suggest that about one-quarter of the decline (i.e., improvements) in energy intensity over this period was due to fundamental improvements in energy use while the remaining three-quarters can be explained by changes in economic structures. Furthermore, dynamic panel regression results suggest that both price and income are important drivers of changes in energy intensity. The long-run price and income elasticities of aggregate intensity, efficiency and activity are -0.57 and -0.50, -0.01 and -0.23, and -0.56 and -0.48 respectively. These show that the long-run impacts of both price and income changes drives aggregate intensity more through shifts in economic activities than through fundamental improvements in energy use. Further exploration of the results suggests that price policy will be more effective in influencing energy intensity than income policy. (This article appeared asMusiliu O. Oseni, “Analysis of Energy Intensity and Its Determinants in 16 OECD Countries,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 1, pp. 101-140, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:367Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Energy as the Foundation of Modern Life,” by Jude Clemente
Analysis of the dangers posed by the use of fossil fuels and the emission of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), generally focuses on the potential for climate change impacts. It is important in the context of assessing the societal risk of CO2 emissions, however, to also examine the reasons why CO2 is emitted in the first place. CO2 is not released in a socioeconomic vacuum. CO2 is emitted because it is the inevitable by-product of combusting fossil fuels, the foundation of the world’s energy economy. Thus, it is important to strike a balance in the equation – both an assessment of the dangers posed to the atmosphere by CO2 emissions and the powerful benefits created by the energy usage that results in CO2 emissions. In short, breaking the global pattern of systematic poverty depends upon available and affordable energy in general and on access to electricity in particular. Going forward, the developing nations will need full access to the very same diverse range of fuels that has empowered the industrialized world to raise the living standards for, and extend the lives of, billions of people. Mainstream generation technologies will continue to be the least expensive and most scalable sources of power in virtually every country in the world for decades to come. Fortunately, the International Energy Agency has made clear that obstacles to incremental conventional energy production lie above ground, not below it. (Jude Clemente, “Energy as the Foundation of Modern Life,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 1, pp. 33-48, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:243Uploaded:11 / 27 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“The Great Recession and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Recession: A Markov-Switching and TAR-VEC Analysis,” by Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin Aykaç Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas
In this paper, we apply the Markov-switching autoregression model (MS-AR) and the models to analyze the effects of the U.S. current account deficits and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) on the increase in oil prices, and the effects of increases of oil price, the rise of the U.S. current account deficits, and the growth rate of the U.S. GDP on the GDPs of Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, Italy, and South Africa. We follow this with an econometric analysis investigating the effects of the U.S. current account, U.S. GDP, and as an exogenous variable of oil prices on the gross domestic product of Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and South Africa through the use of the threshold vector error correction (TVEC) model. (Melike E. Bildirici, Elçin Aykaç Alp, and Tahsin Bakiritas, “The Great Recession and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Recession: A Markov-Switching and TAR-VEC Analysis,” The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, number 2, pp. 215-277, copyright 2011).
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:638Uploaded:11 / 26 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Overview and Prospects for Energy Resources in Afghanistan and Measures to Improve Sustainable Development,” by Nadeem Malik
Afghanistan’s energy sector and its economy are at a crossroads. Energy is a very important input in the sustainable development of Afghanistan. If energy cannot be supplied prudently it could endanger the Government’s development efforts and be a drain on economic growth. Capital investment in energy is rising rapidly attesting to the efforts of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) and the donor community. At the same time, the energy efficiency is not increasing. If left unchecked, much of the investment that is being made could prove to be wasted. The availability of secure energy within Afghanistan was significantly disrupted by the conflicts of the past two decades. Post-conflict efforts by the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan (IROA) and international donors to date have focused on expanding the availability of energy resources throughout the country. Particular emphasis has been on expanding and rehabilitating the electricity sector in the major economic hubs of the country and providing basic service in rural areas. Efforts also have been taken to improve the supply of natural gas, increase the availability of hydro-electric generation, renovate and expand electricity and natural gas transmission and distribution systems, develop renewable energy resources in rural and remote areas and improve the capability of energy sector institutions. The release of new estimates showing that Afghanistan may possess substantial reserves of oil and gas may shake up Central Asia’s increasingly competitive energy contest and alter the region’s geopolitical balance. This paper discusses the challenges facing the development of Afghanistan’s fossil fuels, in particular natural gas and coal, which require large capital investment and significant private sector participation to reach fruition. The major objective of the paper is to describe the existing energy resources and suggest measures to improve the development of these assets. (This article was published in The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 1, pp. 141-164, copyright 2011)
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:493Uploaded:11 / 26 / 2011ShareAdd to collection“Energy Demand in Rural Ethiopia from a Household Perspective: A Panel Data Analysis,” by Dawit Diriba Guta
This paper analyzes household energy demand using micro-household level panel data from rural Ethiopia to contribute to the literature coherent evidence. Biomass fuels dominate in the household energy mix in rural villages of Ethiopia. To investigate this issue, the study used the linear approximation almost ideal demand system (LAAIDS) model with normalized prices to compute expenditure elasticity. We found that demand is elastic for advanced fuel expenditures and inelastic for inferior fuel expenditures. Moreover, for households in the survey, advanced fuels are luxury goods as expenditure elasticity (η_it>1) but traditional fuels are necessity goods (0≤η_it≤1) over the period 2000-2004. In rural areas, however, a household’s fuel choice is constrained by lack of access to commercial fuels and appliances, affordability, consumer preferences and multitude of other factors. Therefore, rural households have less incentive for fuel switching due to aforementioned factors and existence of fuel wood that can be gathered without any financial payment. (This article was published by Dawit Diriba Guta, “Energy Demand in Rural Ethiopia from a Household Perspective: A Panel Data Analysis,” in The Journal of Energy and Development, volume 35, no. 2, pp. 195-213.)
Category:Business & EconomicsReads:794Uploaded:11 / 26 / 2011ShareAdd to collection
