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.THE
ATLANTIC
HOWTOFIGHTDRUGWAR
TheUnitedStatesislosingitswaragainstcocaine.Sincethiswarisfoughtinthemarketplace,percentagesandstatisticsareneededtodescribethedimen-
THE
sionsofthedefeat.Thefederalanti-drugbudgetgrewbymorethan300percentfrom1980to1988,butthecocainesupplymultipliedtenfoldinthesameperiod.Asaresult,cocainepriceshaveplungedtobarely20percentofwhattheywerein1980.Inthatyeartherewereabout220,000acresundercocacultivationinPeru,Bolivia,andColombia;by1984thenumberhadincreasedto380,000,andby1988,accordingtoveryconservativeestimates,toatleast520,000.ThesupplyofcocainetotheUnitedStatesgrewcorre-
BYGUSTAVO
A.
GORRITI
spondingly:about40to48metrictonsofcocaine
JULY1989
enteredtheU.S.marketin1980,anywherefrom70to120tonsin1984,andpossiblyasmuchas350to400tonsin1988.Plummetingpricesreflectedthesupplyglut:in1980thewholesalepriceattheportofentrywas$50,000to$55,000akilogram,by1984ithaddroppedtoabout$35,000,andin1988wholesalepricesinFloridahitanall-timelowof$10,000to$12,000.Notonlydidtheoverflowofcocainepushpricesdownbutstiffcompetitionamongdrugsuppliersresultedinafastincreaseintheaveragepurity
of
cocainesoldonthestreet.In1980itwas12per-cent,in1984itwas35percent,andin1988itrosefrom60to80percent.ThestrategicobjectiveoftheAmericanwaragainstcocainehasbeentomakethesupplysoscantandtraffickingsohazardousthatcocainewouldbecomeunaffordableformostpotentialusers.Thisstrategyhasobviouslyfailedcompletely.Yetlosinggroundinthedrugwarhasonlystrengthenedthewilltoescalateit,followingmore
of
thesamestrategy.EvenClausewitz'sconcept
of
the"fog
of
war"appliesdifferentlytothedrugwar.Inconventionalwarstheconfusionisusuallytactical:fogshroudsthebattlefield,butthestrategichorizontendstoremainclear.Inunconventionalconflicts,likerevolu-tionarywars,thebattlefieldisclearlyvisible,butthestrategicpictureismuchmoredifficulttofathom.Inthedrugwarfogcoversbothtacticsandstrategy.Wedon'tknowifthereisawarornot,althoughwecanseeitscasualtiesplainenough.Andbehindthebraverhetoricofbattlecanbeheardthewhis-perofPogo'saphorism:"Wehavemettheenemy,andheisus."
-----------e
COLLECTOR'SEDITION
 
THEATLANTIC.-----------Forsomeyearsachicken-or-eggdiscussionhasbeengoingonbetween
On
AmericansandAmericans:DidAmericandemandtriggertheexplosioncocaplantinginLatinAmerica,ordidthesuppliers,thoseMephistos,usedeadlymarketingtechniquestocreateacaptivedemand?HavingwitnessedthegrowthofsupplyasareportercoveringthedrugeinPeru,IhavenodoubtthatAmericandemandboreuponLatinAmericawiththeforceofaneconomictidalwave.ItchangedPeru,Bolivia
·nd
Colombiainaradicalway.(Nearlytwentyyearsago,whenthede-andforcocainebegantoexplodeintheUnitedStates,Peruhadonly45,000acresundercocacultivation.Bythestartofthisdecadethenumberhodgrowntoatleast150,000acres,andby1988
10
270,000acres,accordingtothesurprisinglylowestimatesoftheU.S.government,or500,000acres,accordingtothemorerealisticestimatesofthePeruviangovernment.)Thewindowofopportu-nityopenedsuddenlyinthesecountries,especiallyinareasthathadbeenrecentlysettledandhadtherightecologicalconditionsforthepreferredstrainsofthecocaplant-theUpperHuallagaValley,inPeru;theChapare,inBolivia;andtheGuaviare,inColombia.Thetraffickers,especiallytheMedellinmafia,simplycateredtothedemand,andthenbecameintertwinedwithit.Inthecontextofthedrugwartheyhavebecomemythologizedasevilbothpureandomnipotent,whichisnonsense.Theymaybeevil,buttheyarenotpureandtheycertainlyarenotomnipotent.Theyareprimitivebutefficientcapital-ists,astuteandrapacious,cateringtoahungrymarket-the25millionAmeri-canswhouseorabusedrugs,andwhopay$50billioneachyeartogetthem.Thatcomesto$2,000peruserperyear.ThesumthatAmericansspendondrugsannuallyisalmostequaltothegrossnationalproductsofBolivia,Peru,andColombiatogether.Colombia,whichhasarelativelyrobusteconomy,hadapercapitaincomein1985ofonly$1,586.Perulastyearbarelyachievedanationalpercapitaincomeof$900.The$50billionthatAmericansspendondrugsisalmostthreetimesPeru'sGNP,andPeruproduces60percentormoreoftheworld'scocaleavesthatareconvertedintococaine.ComparisonswithBolivia,whichisevenpoorer,seempointless.Outofthe$50billion,about$20billionisspentoncocaineintheUnitedStates.Onlyafractionofthatmakesitswaytothesourcecountries,butitisenoughtomakecocainethesinglemostimportantexportintheAndeanarea.InBoliviathecocaineexportedin1982wasworth$1billion-morethanthevalueofalllegalexportsputtogether.InPeru,wherethevalueofcocaineexportsisestimatedtobearound$1.5billionayear,legalexportsareworthabout$2.5billion.ThevalueofdrugtransactionsinColombiaishardertoassess,becausethecountryisnotanimportantcoca-leafproducerCOLLECTOR'SEDITION
G)-----------
 
.THE
ATLANTICbut,rather,themerchandisingcenterofthecocainebusiness.SomeestimateshaveputthevalueofdrugbusinessinColombiaatabout$4billionayear.Other,morecautiousestimateshoveratabout$2billionayear.Regardless,thetremendouseconomicimpactofthecocainetradeonColombia'seconomyisevident.In1987Colombia'smainlegalexport,coffee,broughtin$1.67billion,andalllegalexportstogetherbroughtin$5.25billion.ForPeruandBolivia,whichproduceabout90percentof611thecocaleavesthatwilleventuallybeconvertedintoco-caine,andformostotherLatinAmericanandCarib-beannationsaswell,demandforthedrughasin-ducednothinglessthananeconomicrevolution.Perhapsasmanyas1.5millionpeopleareem-ployedincocaineproduction,asfarmers,hiredhands,harvesters,pasteprocessors,middlemen,buyers,pilots,accountants,andgunmen.Manymore,fromhotelownerstobankers,dependontheindustryforasubstantialpartoftheirbusiness.TheColombiancocainebaronsstandattheapexofapyramidwhosebaseisthehundredsofthou-sandsofcocafarmers.EthanNadelmann,apoliti-calscientistatPrincetonUniversity,estimatedina1986modeloftheLatinAmericancocainetradethatforevery300cocaineexporters,therewere222,000cocafarmers,74,000pasteprocessors,7,400pastetransporters,and1,333refiners.Thenumberofpeopleatthetopofthepyramidhasremainedstationary,butthebasehasexpandedcon-siderably,owingpartlytothebankruptlegaleconomiesofPeruandBoliviaandthefallingstandardsoflivingthathavehelpedpushnewgroupsofpeopleintothecocaeconomy.Theeconomicrevolutionsparkedbycocainehasnot,however,broughtsocialacceptanceofthedrug.MostSouthAmericanslookatthedrugtradewithcontemptanddismay.Theydon'tallowthemselvestoconsidercocainetraffickingasameansofcapitalaccumulationforthecapital-starvedsubcon-tinent.NoteveninMedellinisstraightforwardprofitingfromcocaine,withitsattendantcorruption,awidelyapprovedwayoflife.Elsewherethenegativesideeffectsofthecocaeconomyhavebeenalltooapparentsincetheearlyyearsoftheboom,andcontemptfordrugtraffickersmixeswithfearthatcrudegangsterswillseizecontrolofthesociety.
A
LOWRENTSTRATEGY
Fromthebeginning,theU.S.Government'santi-cocainestrategyignoredthecentralityofthedrugtradeintheLatineconomy.Thestrategyhadthreeprongs:cocaeradication,cropsubstitution,andlawenforcement.InPeruandBoliviatheemphasiswasoneradication,inColombiaonlawenforce-ment.Overall,thestrategyapproachedcocacultivationasessentiallyacriminalproblem,tobedealtwithbycapturingandincarceratingitsperpetratorsand
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OLLECTOR'SEDITION
of 00

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