calculated the slow changes in the Earth's orbit through
equations using the gravitational pull of other planets and
stars. He determined that the change of Earth\u2019s orbit causes
seasons, that can also be accentuated or modified by the
eccentricity (degree of roundness) of the orbital path around
the Sun, and the precession effect, the position of the solstices
in the annual orbit.
Over a 95,000 year cycle, the Earth's orbit around the sun
changes from a thin ellipse to a circle and back again. Also,
on a 42,000 year cycle, the angle of axis with respect to the
plane of the Earth\u2019s revolution around the Sun changes.
Milankovi\u0107 developed the mathematical formulas upon which
these orbital variations are based. He hypothesized that, when
some parts of the cyclic variations are combined and occur at
the same time, they are responsible for major changes to the
Earth's climate (even ice ages). Milankovi\u0107 estimated climatic
fluctuations over the last 450,000 years and described cold
and warm periods.
Geological studies found evidence that glaciers advanced
and retreated several times in the last million years. The last
retreat, occurred about 12,000 years ago, and right now,
northern winter occurs in the part of the Earth's orbit where
the north end of the axis points away from the Sun. However,
since the axis moves around a cone, 13,000 years from now,
in this part of the orbit, it will point towards the Sun, putting it
in mid-summer just when the Earth is closest to the Sun.
Explanation of the demise of the dinosaurs by the climate
change that destroyed their food supplies came not from major
sudden disasters, but from slow changes in the orbit of the
Earth itself. The story begins about 150 years ago when
scientists found evidence of former giant glaciers or ice
sheets, nearly a mile thick and extended across millions of
square miles of land that today are covered with grass and
forest. Careful study showed that the ice sheets had grown and
shrunk across the continents not once, but many times. The
glaciers appeared and disappeared during repeated cycles of
hot and cold weather, each cycle lasting about 100,000 years.
Many people tried to figure out why the "Ice Ages" happened,
but only Milutin Milankovi\u0107 found the exact explanation
through changes in the orbit of the Earth causing the average
temperatures on Earth changes dependent on the Earth's
distance from the Sun.
Milankovi\u0107 studied the three main orbital changes, the
shape of Earth's orbit, tilt of Earth's axis, and the wobble of
Earth's axis. Each of these changes are cyclical, and during the
cycle of any one of these three changes, the Earth tends to
grow warmer, and then cooler. The three orbital changes are
actually all happening at the same time, but the length of the
cycle of each change is different. Most of the time, the heating
and cooling segment of each cycle cancel each other out,
giving Earth a lukewarm climate. But sometimes orbital
changes combine together to make the Earth's climate either
very warm or very cold.
The most important orbital change studied by Milankovi\u0107 is
the change in the shape of the Earth's orbit from nearly
circular to slightly elongate and back again. The time it takes
to go through a complete cycle from circular to elongate and
back to circular is about 100,000 years. The second orbital
change Milankovi\u0107 studied is the tilt of Earth's axis relative to
its orbit around the Sun. (the tilt of Earth's axis is the main
cause of the seasons) is not constant, but varies slightly over a
cycle that lasts about 41,000 years. The third orbital change
that Milankovi\u0107 studied is precession, the cyclical wobble of
Earth's axis in a circle. Milankovi\u0107's cycles are the collective
effect of changes in the Earth's movements (eccentricity, axial
tilt, and precession) upon its climate.
The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession
approximately every 26,000 years, Figure 4. In addition, the
Earth's tilt relative to the Sun changes between 21.5 degrees to
24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000 year cycle.
Fig. 4: Milankovi\u0107's Cycles of the Earth Axis
One complete cycle for Earth takes about 26,000 years. In
the upper part of the Figure 4 labelled "Now," Earth's axis is
tilted so that summer occurs in the northern hemisphere on the
left side of the Sun and winter on the right. In the lower part
labelled "In 13,000 years," the axis has moved to where
summer in the northern hemisphere occurs on the right side of
the Sun and winter on the left.
The magnitude of the above phenomena also known as
"Milankovi\u0107 effect" depends on the difference between largest
and smallest distances from the Sun. That, in its turn, depends
on the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit, which varies with a
100,000-year cycle, on which a 413,000-year cycle is
superposed. Deep-sea sediments show that in the last million
years, but not before, the variation is dominated by a
periodicity around 100,000 years.
Milankovi\u0107\u2019s astronomical theory suggests that the primary
driver of ice ages is the total summer radiation received in
northern latitude zones where major ice sheets have formed in
the past, near 65 degrees north (65N), and the past ice ages
correlate well to 65N summer insolation. Astronomical
calculations show that 65N summer insolation should increase
gradually over the next 25,000 years, and that no 65N summer
insolation declines sufficient to cause an ice age, are expected
in the next 50,000 - 100,000 years.
Unfortunately, this coincides with an increasing global
warming caused by emissions of greenhouse gases from
electricity generation and other uses of fossil fuels, as well as
by deforestation and other human activities, that cause a rapid
increase in the global temperature, followed by many unusual
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