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I. General Overview
The National Bureau of Statistic reported that inflation had risen over a percentage point to 27.6%in August, compared to 26.5% in July. Theincrease was attributed primarily to fuel priceincreases of up to 3.6% between July and August,as well as almost a full percentage point increasein food prices (from 12.2% in September to 13.1%in August). However, analysts believe that energyand food price increases will subside as the globalcommodity and energy price increases areexpected to moderate.Inflation reached a 15-year high of 31.5% in May2008, when production was slowed due to thepost-election violence (PEV) and at the same timeglobal price increases soared to record highs. Ithas been projected that the Kenyan economy willcontinue to recover towards 10-12% overall inflation and 5% inflation excluding food and fuel.Achieving these rates is critical for Kenya to remain competitive in regional markets, as they arecloser to the rates of Kenya’s main trading partners.However, economists also highlight that in additionto recovery from the effects of the PEV, there mustbe increased and sustained investment to improvethe efficiency in Kenya’s productive sectors.Meanwhile, the Missionary International NewsService reported that the increases in food andelectricity prices are leading to increases in schoolfees between Ksh1,000-5,000 (USD 15-75) in someschools. Parents are reporteldy struggling to makethese payments as their salaries are already
UNITED NATIONS HUMANITARIAN UPDATE vol. 3428 August – 3 September 2008Office of the United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator in Kenya
 
HIGHLIGHTS
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The Kenyan Red Cross reported that there are 25,296 IDPs in 48 IDP camps; the KRCS,WFP and an interagency assessment noted that there were at least 99,198 IDPs in 160transit sites; the Government reported that 234,098
 
IDPs had returned to pre-displacement areas by 28 August.
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Drought conditions have led to severe water shortages and have contributed to foodinsecurity in Mandera West district which is at risk of an acute food and livelihood crisis.
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Critical situations are emerging along Kenya’s borders: refugee camps along the Somaliborder have passed capacity and clashes have increased and intensified betweenpastoralists in Turkana district, along the Southern Sudanese border.
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Kenya’s inflation rate increased to 27.6% in August, from 18.2% in January.
The information contained in this report has been compiled by OCHA from information received from thefield, from national and international humanitarian partners and from other official sources. It does not represent a position from the United Nations. This report is posted on: http://ochaonline.un.org/kenya
 
Source: IMF Data Mapper, September 2008.Pastoralists in Turkana district digging shallow wells for their herd. March 2008. For more on pastoralists, see p. 3
 
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overstretched to meet the high cost of commodities. While Kenya struggles to recover from theeconomic downturn, local media reported that Members of Parliament (MPs) criticized a reportleaked from the National Bureau of Statistics on constituency poverty rates, alleging that thefindings were too favourable in some constituencies. However, others were quick to note thatthese allegations were signs of political manoeuvring as MPs vie for increased allocations under the constituency development funds, which are allocated according to need and then used by MPsat their discretion.Another report, released by the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) on thecharacter and scope of the human rights violations which were perpetrated during the PEV, alsoresulted in major backlash. Amidst widespread public debate as to whether the PEV wasorchestrated and premeditated or spontaneous, the KNCHR report concluded that there wasorganisation and method to the violence and that the Government’s response, including that of thesecurity forces, was insufficient. A list of alleged perpetrators was included in an Annex, which hasnot yet been circulated; however, local media was flooded with debate and speculationsurrounding the high-powered individuals allegedly named in the report.
II. Humanitarian SituationDrought in Mandera West District
Action Against Hunger (ACF) has reported serious water shortages in Mandera West district,based on a rapid drought assessment (23-27 August). The water shortages are primarily affectingpastoralists in the area while the general foodsecurity situation is also declining.According to the assessment, poor short rains in2007 and insufficient long rains in 2008 have ledto depleted dams and water pans in some areas,such as Derkale and Tarma. In other areasaccess to water has been limited by increasedpressure on water sources due to an influx of pastoralists from neighbouring countries andregions, and some incidents of well water poisoning. Furthermore, poor rainfall andinfestations by army worms have led to a declinein pasture and browse, forcing some pastoraliststo travel at least 40 kilometers between water points and suitable pasture areas. Livestockdiseases, which spread more rapidly whenlivestock rely on a small number of water sources and have to travel long distances, areaffecting goats and camel resulting in poor livestock markets and a reduction in milkproduction; in many pastoralist households,meat and milk from sheep and goats constitute40% of household food intake.
 
Furthermore, ACF reports that there were noharvests during the long rains as armywormsdecimated crops. Meanwhile, poor health,exacerbated by a lack of access to health services, is also increasing vulnerabilities and erodingcoping mechanisms. A nutrition survey conducted in March-April also concluded that there werevery high rates of malnutrition in the district: global acute malnutrition was at 23.20% (very critical)and severe acute malnutrition was at 1.30%.Due to the multiple and compounding factors present in Mandera West district, theKenya FoodSecurity Steering Group’s Long Rains Assessment (LRA), completed in August, concluded thatmany areas in the district are at risk of an acute food and livelihoods crisis (see map and IPC
Source: KFSSG, Long Rains Assessment 2008
 
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classification for the district in the full LRA report at ochaonline.un.org/Kenya). It was alsoforecasted that the deteriorating situation could result in increased conflict due to competition for increasingly scarce resources. According to the LRA, immediate interventions required toameliorate the situation include the following: increased water trucking, purchase of water boozers,de-silting of water pans and drilling of boreholes; livestock vaccination; provision of certifieddrought tolerant seeds, revival of irrigation schemes; and provision water treatment chemicals.
Food Security
The LRA cited many contributorsto declining food securitythroughout the country, includingerratic and insufficient rains;increased commodity and inputprices; poor health; conflict;livestock diseases; and reducedcrop production.According to the EARS satellitedata, Kenya will continue to facereduced maize yields during thelong-rains harvest, 7% below thefive-year average, primarily due todrought. In the Rift Valleyprovince, particularly low yieldswere identified in Laikipia andNarok.
(For the full report and full resolution maps see; http://ears.nl/index.php)
Insecurity in Pastoralist Regions
Following reports of clashes in Uganda between the Ugandan People’s Defence Force andpastoralists on 15 August, more clashes between Southern Sudanese and Kenyan pastoralists inTurkana district were reported between 30-31 August, local media noted that between six and 19pastoralists were killed in the heavily armed clashes. On 1 August, two pastoralists were alsoreportedly killed by heavily armed raiders in Turkana Central district. Local media have reportedthat over 224 pastoralists have been killed in armed conflicts since January 2008.Several compounding factors havecontributed to the high incidence of conflictamongst pastoralist communities. Therehas been increased competition for resources as cyclical droughts reducepasture areas, particularly during the dryseason migration, and erode communities’resilience and coping mechanisms.Furthermore, livestock diseases, includingpeste des petits ruminants (PPR) havedecimated small ruminant herds, includingthree million sheep and goats that havedied in Turkana district since 2006.Livestock raids have consequentlyincreased in efforts replenish animals lost tothe disease.Years of conflict in pastoralist regions along Kenya’s borders with Uganda, Southern Sudan,Ethiopia and Somalia, have resulted in a proliferation of small arms and light weapons (SALWs).
(Livestock migrating todry-season grazing)(Livestockmigrating todry-seasongrazing)
 
(Seasonal Livestock movement Trends )
 
-20%-10%010%20%Crop difference yields relative to Crop difference yieldsthe 5 year average. relative to 2007.Source: EARS, 3 September 2008.
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