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Perspectives on the ME:Demography, Socionomics, Governance and Outlook
Introduction
The Middle East has always been important to the US and the rest of the developed world, mostly for itsoil, but has never received the attention and resources it deserved or required. With 911 (and 311, theMadrid Bombings, et.al.), the invasion of Afghanistan and the invasion of Iraq that’s changed but notnecessarily in ways we’d like. Whatever you may think about those actions the fact of the matter is thatthe world economy and the stability and prosperity of our respective societies is utterly dependent onpeace, stability and progress in the Middle East. With the current inventory of on-going crisis that makesfinding a workable path forward toward a more stable and prosperous ME becomes an urgent andimportant problem for the US and for the World. This series of blog postings lays out the issues,provides several frameworks for understanding the players and their linkages and how they impact andare impacted by the issues, suggests key factors like cultural and social structure to consider andprovides strategic recommendations for coping with these important, dangerous and difficult challenges.If nothing else we hope it provides both food for thought and constructive strawmen for movingforward, however slightly.
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Table of Contents
1. Some Different Perspectives 22. Diversity, Complexity & Confusions 43. Progress, Reform, Stability, Devolution 54. ME Faultlines(Readings): Values, Culture & Conflict5. SoW IV(the Ugly): Israel, the ME and Good vs. Bad Government 86. The Iran Dilemma: They Like Us, Not; We Like Them, Not...usw. 97. Gaza and the ME: Flames for the Fuses 118. The Next Decade's Crisis: ME, Bubbling Cauldrons & Fracture Lines 159. Witches Brew Recipes: ME Details (Iraq to Iran) 1810. ME Update: Exemplar, Laboratory and Conundrums 2111. Middle East Challenges: Game-changes, ME, Iran, Iraq & Afghanistan 2512. Boots On The Ground: Realities, Strategies, Policy & Politics 2913. More of the Afghan Debates: Searching for Legitimacy 32
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Some Different Perspectives
March 1, 2008http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/03/wrfest_1mar08middle_east_some.html Next up is some variant readings from around the world on theoutlook and status for the ME. Interestingly but hopefully notsurprisingly they care as much or more about our electionsthan we do. In fact, just as a sidebar, an online poll at theSingapore Straits Times found 55%+ of the respondents weremore concerned with the US elections than the ones across theStrait in Malaysia. Unfortunately the reverse, or obverse ain'ttrue. That is we don't pay much attention to what they thinkabout things. I started out to put some context around thereadings after the break - to wit, why we really....really shouldcare about the ME - but ended up with so much that they'llbecome separate posts.Briefly though1) the ME is the major source of oil for the world economy andwill be more important in the future,2) the ME has been under growing socio-demographicpressures from rising populations and a lack of developmentwhich is escalating exponentially, and3) US policy continues to be self-interested, quasi-benign neglect but uninformed, un-sophisticated and too short-term to serve our own interests. Put that all together and you have the ingredients for a major implosion whichcould be catastrophic if not addressed. Which makes resolving these challenges favorably is probably THE majorshort- to intermediate-term US foreign policy requirement.It always amuses me that toward the end of their last terms US Presidents seem to want to leave a legacy ofresolving the ME into some nice, neat, stable and peaceful package. So they try and slam dunk something. That'sbeen going on since Jimmy the Peanut with Clinton and Bush II taking big passese at. This is too intractable,severe and complex a problem for amateur hour however, which is what we keep insisting on its' being. Thinkworst American Idol moments only this time it's American Idiots. The catch is that it isn't just a peace and stabilityproblem it's also a major national security problem, which is closely coupled to the need for a rational, forward-looking and innovative strategic energy policy AND a major economic problem.That's true because we keep importing oil and exporting depreciating decliningdollars, which are not independent trends, and re-cycling those dollars intosovereign wealth fund investments is also becoming a painful challenge.Aside from amusement our bumbling around needs to be fixed and soon. Myfavorite take which captures a lot of the confusion, self-deception, politicalnarrow-mindedness, lack of grasp of reality and inability to face the world as itis is captured in Syriana. Which IMHO was a great movie though not for theusual reasons. If you actually pay attention what you see is America pursuingan "Oil at Any Cost" policy, struggling to keep the lid on the status quo, andlacking a willingness to find alternatives, i.e. a coherent national energy policy.In other words you and me folks ! You also see where political correctness,misrepresentation of who's doing what to whom and plain old wishful thinkingget us into trouble.For example the mythology about the Iranian moderates moving the country toa more progressive outlook. Or the willingness to sacrifice key personnel to
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