US Presidential Election 2008 (Early Days): Candidates, Positions, Policies and Consequences

Election 2008: Early Days, the Magic Sorting Primaries and Key IssuesPolicies, Politics, Positions and Partisans

By Dave Livingston. Dave is a management consultant with almost 30 years of experience with analyzing complex business problems and developing solutions and new businesses. He blogs on public affairs at his blog Parts to Wholes: the Socionomic Systems Nexus ( http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/ ) where he attempts to apply that toolkit to current affairs and public policy. He also brings a background in economics, politics, current affairs and international relations to the table.

Introduction

The US Presidential Elections of 2008 were some of the most important in decades, at least as important as the1968 and 1980 elections. Arguably as important as the 1932 election that brought FDR and the New Deal intoplace; especially when you consider the reach and seriousness of the major policy challenges that existed and westill face. Just think about it – two major wars, the most serious economic crisis since the New Deal and majordomestic policy challenges that were left to the tender mercies of the culture wars and largely ignored while theydeteriorated and new challenges mounted. Those include Energy, the Environment, Education and Healthcare just to name the big blockbusters. To top it off we’re well into the biggest structural re-alignments of the worldsystem in 200 years and you have quite a schedule of problems to deal. Any ONE of which would haveconstituted THE major problem of several previous administrations, all of which arrived in their current sorry stateas the result of not to benign neglect by both politicians and the electorate over three decades.We are now at the point where none of them can be neglected and they must all be addressed. As they say it’scertainly fun to live in interesting times! Isn’t it?We trace out the arc of the Election 2008 story here from early 2008 to the middle of the year but do it in a veryunusual way. There’s some of the usual discussion of the candidates, their strengths, weaknesses, proposals andpositions. But all of that discussion is set in a context of framing the big policy issues and using a set of strategicideals to evaluate the candidates. We also talk about the mechanics of the political process and campaigning aswell as the social psychology of selling themselves to the voters. And we evaluate those same voters – becausethis election was and will be as much about them and what they’re wanting and needing as it is about anythingelse.Over the course of the Election one of the driving themes that emerged was the need for CHANGE – it could nolonger be business as usual. For things to change however not only needed good leadership and sound policy itrequired, and requires, an electorate willing to accept the painful costs of change. It was not at all during theelection that the voters were willing to face the prices required to pay the Pipers who’d made their party. Nor wasit clear that the candidates were able or willing to, so to speak, tell truth to the power. Fortunately as thecampaigning evolved we moved away from simple-minded slogans and extremist positions, legacy of the culturewars to some extent, and to more substantive and realistic positions.But where we’re at today was and is shaped by where we were, what we went thru and the choices we made. Ina very real sense the story of the 2008 election is still with us, not just in the results, but in the issues considered,the way they were considered and how people reacted. Our considered judgment is that we’ve still got a long,long, long way to go before the electorate is willing to face the truth. Here we try to tell the early part of that storyand its beginnings.The early days are interesting in their own right of course and the stories as the “magic sorting primaries” helpedus choose our candidates, issues and positions makes a valuable refresher on what we all said then and decidedfor now. This multi-part evolution uses a whole bunch of machinery for analyzing politics, campaigning and issueanalysis that are still directly and powerfully relevant. It’s also a part of previous publications we’ve shared .

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Table of Contents

Let's Play President: Evaluating the Candidates 3Choice, Options & Evaluations 5Politics & Policy: Take the Next Step 6Times Are A'Changin: Will the 60's (Now) Be Good For Us? 7And Then there Were...Two: Vision? Leadership? Politics! 9Super Tuesday: Barrack & Billary "Tied", John-Boy in Front? 9Poetic Campaigns and Prosaic Policy: Realities of Change 12Billary Goes Back to Washington (I): a Cartoon Collection 13Billary Goes Back to Washington (II): It's All About Character 15John-Boy Wrestles the Swamp Monster: McCain & the Right 16Deeper Current and Structural Change? 17Fights, Disses and Issues: Onward to Camelot? 18Turning Tides and Choices 19Get What We Want or Need? 20Gettin Down to the Nxx-cuttin: Issues, Choice, Consequences and BS Quotients 21Security, Economy, Energy Oh My! 22She's Back.... 23Gimme that Ol Time Religion? 24Now We've Got a Horse Race: Debating the Debates & 60lb Pack Tests 29

Campaign, Candidates & Consequences: the Emerging Race for the Middle 30Policy Challenges: From Coasting Along to Coping? 32

Whew, That's Over: Let the Games Begin...Again! 33

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January 8, 2008

Let's Play President: Evaluating the Candidates

Well the Iowa tsunami behind us, the second wave coming today/tonight and the campaign shaking out into a realtest it looks like things are going to be wide open. Thank goodness. I'm afraid a Billary vs. Rudeness contestdidn't appeal to me very much while an Obama vs. McCain has a lot of merit. Before explaining why let me put thequestion to you.How do you think the candidates should be evaluated?Here's some thoughts and reflections in response. But first, the video at rightwill take you to one of the best Charlie Rose programs with David Brooks, PaulBegala and Adam Nagourney each giving their perspectives. Brooks lays outthe big picture while Paul talks more about strategy and campaign managementand Nagourney provides a reporters ground-level view of tactics. There's alsoan interesting finale on Obama's grassroots appeal. Well worth watching.

Now we're going to find out what Hillary and the rest are really made of.Before saying anything more about Billary let me re-ask what do wewant from a candidate?The pundit's answer is that we want the slew of "right" policies so we get all these menus. That's all welland good, necessary even. But the reality nobody has the time to sort thru all these or the interest. Theaccusation is often made that citizens spend more time researching a new car than a candidate or theirissues. Not only true, but understandable and actually sensible. I control my car choices and it's a majorimmediate impact on my life. I'm one of millions of voters who can't really influence the outcome.So what do voters look for? Several look for someone to express their fears or hopes or tell them theworld will be a better place. Most, at the end of the day, IMHO, are looking to find a candidate who bestexpresses and captures what they themselves feel about how things are going and better provides a pathforward. A vision if you will. This makes sense in a lot of ways - it's a rule-of-thumb filter that isaffordable and workable, though without a little research it's often not as well grounded as it could orshould be. For example Fred Thompson is a deeply experienced and insightful man who carefullyconsiders his positions and conclusions, which are very nuanced in a wise way. Yet I wouldn't havereached that conclusion w/o watching him on Rose.So the primary screening tool for most, and myself and most of us if we're honest about it, is someonewho creates vision of where we want to go and something about how to get there.The second major screen is that we want someone we think can tough it out. Someone authentic, who'spositions are grounded in who and what they are and represent a serious commitment to their ownvalues. And who has the character to stand their ground.So at the end of the day there are three major categories of candidate evaluation IMHO:1. Vision and Leadership2. Character and Authenticity