From Nomination to Election: Evolution vs. Devolution, Policy vs. Perjorative and Consequences

Re-evaluating and Re-valuing the 2008 Elections:The Candidates, Issues, Outcomes and Implications

By Dave Livingston. Dave is a management consultant with almost 30 years of experience with analyzing complex business problems and developing solutions and new businesses. He blogs on public affairs at his blog Parts, Systems, Structures and Outcomes ( http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/ ) where he attempts to apply that toolkit to current affairs and public policy.

Introduction

This set of essays covers the US Presidential Election from Nomination to Election but takestwo unusual perspectives. First, it is policy-based. What we mean by that is that we lay out anidealized policy framework in each of the major categories of Foreign Policy, Economic Policyand Domestic Policy. That framework is then used repeatedly to track the substance of thecandidates statements and positions as they are presented and evolve throughout thecampaign.Second, it is also psychology-based; and that is perhaps the most important factor to consider.Most people don’t have the time or resources to dig deeply into policy. It is then up to thecandidates to present a compelling vision of where they wanted to take the country, explain thespecifics in enough detail to be convincing and communicate it well enough to be compelling.Over the course of the campaign, as we see it evolving, both candidates came in for someharsh judgments on both sets of evaluation criteria. But there was also a clear evolution aswell. As the campaign proceeded Barry was increasingly clear and substantive while John-boywas increasingly appealing less and less to substance and more and more to emotion.Which introduces what is almost a third major dimension of evaluation. To persuade voters, orto provide leadership in any situation in fact you must speak to both the rational mind and theemotional mind. If you like you present to the forebrain, the modern mind that’s recentlyevolved, and but you sell to the hindbrain, the lizard-brain, which is the oldest and mostemotional part of our psychological makeup. It is also where our deepest emotional reflexes,values and beliefs reside and, ultimately, where decisions are made. It is, in other words,where candidates win or loose.The other major evolution of the campaign was that as John-boy grew increasingly lesssubstantive his desire to win led him to sell more and more to those emotions, using some ofthe most pejorative arguments and labels. In fact the McCain who we long admired becameincreasingly hidden by and subservient to the candidate who wanted to win. Apparently atalmost any cost.In the course of the final months of the campaign the groundwork was laid for our current crisisof institutional confidence and the metastasis of lizard-brain appeals – in other words theseeds of the Tea Parties were sown in 2008. And now we’re reaping the harvest. Though not

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without a lot of “farmers” who are gathering the harvest in pursuit of partisan politicaladvantage.

Table of Contents

Essays

1. Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal 32. Moral Clarity? Good Intentions, Muddy Proposals, Directional Obscurities 53. Foreign Affairs, Security & Iraq: Poseur in Chief? 64. Barry Abroad, John-boy Alone: Where's the Beef 85. Voice, Leadership, Messages, Realities: Living in a Tough World 106. Welcome to Saddleback: the Candidates, Pastor Rick and Some Real Answers 127. The Stories the Candidates Aren't Telling Us: Politics as Usual 148. Stories They Need to Tell: a Policy Challenge Review 169. Politics and Policy: Convention to Consequences 1810. 911 Memorial: Fix the Problem Don't Repeat the Crash 1911. Politics and Policy II: Next Convention, Any Consequences? 2112. Crisis, Debates and Leadership? Yeah, Right. 2413. Populist Panderings, the Candidates and Real Solutions 2614. Rope-a-Dope at Hofstra: Handicapping the Debate and Results 28

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Campaigns, Candidates, Consequences: Some Assessments 31

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June 15, 2008

Crossing the Cusp Points: Politics, Policy and a Proposal

http://llinlithgow.com/PtW/2008/06/crossing_the_cusp_points_polit.html We seem to be in a bit of a lull while the candidates catch their breaths, maybe rest a tad, re-structure theirorganizations and re-positions themselves for the general election. That calm is probably very deceptive andunderneath the surface the duck's feet are paddling furiously indeed. However there are two giant changescoming, willy-nilly, whether we want them to or not. And they should represent cusp points in the tone, tenor anddirection of the campaign.The first is a shift from matters of style andmaneuver to including more matters of substanceand policy. Now that's not to be too "Pollyanish"about it all - as we've said we've already gotten quitea bit of improvement in this election in ways thatreally matter to us. And at the same time it's still anelection where style and sound-bytes will matter, asthey always do. The extent to which we shift willdepend, in part, on the voters. Are we going to askthe hard questions or be satisfied with the easy andgood-sounding answers?There's some evidence the number and seriousnessof our challenges is indeed forcing some shift. Ofcourse in the long-run there are two key things tobear in mind. These issues are substantive, they'rehear to stay and we'll have to face them one way oranother. And, no matter who wins, the real world has rhythms, patterns and directions of its' own - no matter whatthe rhetoric US Foreign Policy is not likely to shift all that much other than in cosmetics. The graphics is ourproposed template for these matters of substance from renewing key general principles to structural re-engineering of the governance mechanisms to key policy clusters. Consider it a proposed architecture for thedebates on policy as well as a representation of our best analysis of realities and resolutions.The second big shift coming is generational. About every 20+ years there is a major shift in political leadership asone generation succeeds another. In 1960 JFK succeeded DDE as the baton was passed to the youngsters of the"Greatest Generation" from their elders. When Slick Willy took over from Bush41 it was another generational shiftfrom the "Greatest" to the Boomers - and a massive attitudinal shift as well. Stop and think about what you think itwas - a worthy topic of exploration. I'd suggest it was a shift from struggle, duty, obligation and "no free lunch" tothe beneficiaries of that effort who were more concerned about "actualization", self/me and less focused on thehard work needed to get there. And that's not to pick on either posture, at least entirely. The attitudes are as mucha product of the environment as the reverse and are more or less appropriate for them. We did, IMHO, loose sightof what brought us to that pleasant state of being able to focus on our navels and have spent the last severalyears being reminded.Whoever wins this election it is a generational shift again - like we said...these issues will be with us for decades.It's not given to us to avoid them, only how we deal with them. John-boy stands for the last, and in some ways,the best of the Boomer generation. A genuine war hero, a man of integrity and substance and a demonstratedmaverick who has followed his own thinking and the evidence on most matters of substance. Barry, aside fromboth his eloquence and his ability to put the challenges of the time in new and insightful way, is less well known.But appears to also be a man grounded in his own self. to know what he believes and why and to have both agood idea of where he wants to take us and what it'll take to get there. He's certainly shown a solid predilectionbehind the scenes for picking good people, seeking out the best advice and advisers, running a well thought outorganization and inventing new ways of doing things. All to the good.