• Embed Doc
  • Readcast
  • Collections
  • CommentGo Back
Download
 
 July 2008 Vol. 6 No. 7
Oil Bubble on Brink of Major Bust 
Te oil bubble is about to bust.Financial Intelligence Report has long argued that the present bubble in oilis not driven by skyrocketing demand and shrinking supply, as many pundits would have you believe, but by speculators driving up the price o oil to linetheir own pockets.Our view is gaining more and more currency among the experts. FIR rst warned o this market manipulation nearly three years ago ollowing HurricaneKatrina, when the run-up in crude oil prices hit $70 a barrel at the time.Back in 2004, when FIR was just launching, we alerted investors that oil then selling at $29 per barrel — was about to spike. We predicted that oil wouldhit $60 to $70 per barrel within 18 months. It did just that. At the time, we did not link the oil price spike to speculators. We noted thatreal ination — not reported by the U.S. government — was accelerating. Suchhidden ination was weakening the dollar. As the dollar collapsed, we posited,oil, which is traded in dollars, would skyrocket. Bingo, it did!But the price jumps we have seen over the past 15 months, where oil hasdoubled rom that $70 a barrel to almost $140 a barrel, has little to do withination and much more to do with a mania o speculation. A back-o-the-envelope calculation shows us that, as the dollar has collapsedby 40 percent over the past seven years, oil prices could reasonably double.But oil has increased by almost 400 percent in the past ew years — and itis up almost 700 percent over the past decade. Ination can account or just araction o that price increase.Now, with prices nudging $140 a barrel recently, the commodities marketregulators, such as the Commodities Futures rading Commission (CFC),have done nothing to stop these market manipulators.Tere have been many cases o manipulation in the commodities marketsin the annals o time. Perhaps the Hunt brothers’ manipulation o the silvermarkets in the 1970s and early 1980s is the most inamous example.Troughout the 1970s, the Hunts gradually acquired control o over one-third o the entire world’s supply o silver. In their attempts to manipulate theprice o silver utures contracts and bullion, silver rom September 1979 to
Key Points
 
How speculation — not realdemand — has pushed up oil
 
 Why OPEC and the Saudisare right on supply 
Te role o the dollar in highoil prices
Axel Merk on the comingination inerno
Hans Parisis reveals the South American giant every smartinvestor should consider
PLUS:
Our portolio review andactions to take now 
Exclusive to Current Subscribers
Note to FIR readers:
Last month’s edition o Financial Intelligence Report wasa double issue combining May and June. However, subscribers will not miss asingle edition or which they have paid.
Current subscribers haveinstant access to any andevery past edition o 
Te
FinancialIntelligence Report.
Simply go here:
 
 www.newsmax.com/frreports
Tis month’spassword is: oil
(Please remember to uselower-case letters.)
 
Page
2
Financial Intelligence Report
July 2008
 January 1980 went to $50 an ounce rom $11, and theHunt Brothers were sitting on a pile o riches.But it didn’t last long. Te price o silver crashed— alling 50 percent in a single day — and the HuntBrothers couldn’t meet the margin calls on the uturescontracts they had taken out, causing a nancial panic.Like the Hunt Brothers’ manipulation o silver, thisarticial ination o the price o oil can’t go on orever.Tere are several actors that could nally push oilprices down in the coming months.But we do not see any dramatic oil-price collapseuntil ater this November, when the U.S. electionsare held. We hear rom our European sources that thecommodities market is not only being manipulated by U.S. hedge unds but by nations and individuals who want the Republicans out o the White House — andBarack Obama to be president. Nothing assures thatbetter than $4 plus a gallon gas and an angry electoratecome November.It’s important to rememberthis is not the rst time oilprices have spiked, helpingto cause a dramatic politicalchange in the U.S.For example, crude oilposted similarly spectacularincreases a number o times inthe past three decades. Back inthe spring o 1980, as gasolinelines lengthened, the priceo crude oil was 150 percentabove the price o just a yearearlier. Ronald Reagan beatincumbent Jimmy Carter in alandslide that same year.Basic economics dictatesthat price is determined by supply and demand — ultimately.“Despite all o the dire predictions about the price o oil, the truth is that it will go down,” William Gamble,author o 
Freedom: America’s Competitive Advantage inthe Global Market,
tells FIR 
.
 “All markets do. What we are witnessing now isthe last stages o a buying renzy that are part o acommodities bubble. I or no other reason, the price o oil will go down because the higher it rises, the greaterthe possibility o recession. A high price o oil meansthat one o the largest inputs or any economic activity is priced out o reach.” Already, demand here in the U.S. is declining. EvenEurope, which was cushioned by the oil price spikesbecause o a strong euro, is witnessing oil price woes astruckers strike in several countries.
Hedge Funds Artiicially Pump Up Oil
Historically, the utures markets allowed oil renersto hedge against unexpected price swings. Just 10 yearsago, the commodities market was dominated by actualbuyers. oday, even Mom and Pop investors havecommodity accounts and are playing the commodity utures market like a casino. And the real heavyweights are the institutionalinvestors — not just hedge unds, but banks and evenstaid pension unds — who are wading into that commodity market to invest rather than tohedge their own risk.Hedge und guru MichaelMasters told a U.S. Senatepanel the other week thatinstitutional investors “are oneo, i not the primary, actorsaecting commodities pricestoday.” As a result o this shit,speculators continue to buy in anticipation o selling at ahigher price.News articles that talk about the coming boom inautomobile use in China andIndia only uel the renzy or more oil contracts — even though many o theinvestors in these contracts are in or the extremely short term. In no way can these investors ever cash inon expected consumer demand in China and India overthe next ve to 10 years.Other economists agree.“Speculation is behind the run-up in price,” saysHarvard University economist Jerey Frankel.Te ederal government bears part o theresponsibility or this state o aairs. Te rapid
Responding to pressure from Washington,Saudi Arabia has promised to ramp upproduction. Global demand is hitting 86million barrels a day, of which the kingdomproduces a huge chunk — soon reaching 10million barrels.
 
July 2008
Financial Intelligence Report
 
Page
3
reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve Boardhas encouraged commodity stockpiling by some,making it less attractive to sell commodities and “putthe proceeds into bonds and other debt instruments,Frankel says.In other words, as prices spiral up and up, investorskeep piling in moreand more — thetextbook denitiono a bubble. Yet theundamental reasonsor buying oil aren’tthere. Fact is, thereis no shortage o oilright now.In act, evenas prices haveskyrocketed,demand isbeginning to pullback.Noted investorRichard Rainwateradmitted recently that he dumpedhis oil stocks when he saw a recent poll on popularinvestment Web site Te Motley Fool. Seventy-sevenpercent o those surveyed online said they were cuttingback on oil use. With demand alling, Rainwater sees oilalling big time, too.Since 2003, in act, the number o open uturesand options contracts on West exas IntermediateCrude rose by 880 percent while the global demand orphysical, real petroleum rose by just 8 percent.“So the utures and options market has become moreimportant than the physical supplies in driving theprice,” comments im Evans, an energy utures analystat Citigroup’s Futures Perspectives.“We are seeing investment ows into the oil marketthat don’t have anything to do with the demand andsupply o oil,” says Evans.Even hedge unds admit that investor speculation isbehind the run-up in oil, although they point the ngerat exchange-traded unds. According to congressionaltestimony rom hedge und manager Masters,speculation by institutional investors in commoditiesutures has largely been responsible or the dramaticincrease in oil prices over the past our months. And political guru Dick Morris also has notedthat the speculators are running amok. He cites onestatistic that shows that the volume o investment incommodities utures soared to $260 billion in March2008 rom $13 billion at the end o 2003.Masters pointsout that commodity index unds arethe biggest culpritbehind rising oildemand. Teseunds are requiredto hold a certainpercentage o physical oil toback their unds.Investors haveocked to theserelatively new undsto take advantageo rising oil prices, which has, in turn,created an upwardspiral in the price o oil. And that has caused overall demand to signicantly rise above the present supply o oil.
No Supply Shortage o Oil
 At rst, Saudi King Abdullah rejected PresidentBush’s request — during his June trip to the MiddleEast — or an increase in oil production. Te Saudiscomplained that there is plenty o oil in the openmarket and that pumping more oil won’t solve theproblem. Tey claim the problem or oil prices can beblamed on speculators and market ears.For example, Iran has more than 30 million excessbarrels o oil that it can’t simply sell into the openmarket.Despite the glut, Saudi Arabia decided soon aterBush’s visit to reverse course and began pumping anadditional 300,000 barrels per day. Reportedly, thekingdom hoped the news would temper oil speculation.Te Saudis and other Gul states learned their lessonin the 1970s. Because they invest most o their assets inthe West, it is not wise to make oil so expensive it leads
Supply and demand is the reason crude is high right now, oil expertssuch as Boone Pickens tell the financial press. But they have it exactlybackwards. Recently, demand has fallen while supply accelerated.
of 00

Leave a Comment

You must be to leave a comment.
Submit
Characters: ...
You must be to leave a comment.
Submit
Characters: ...