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Failsafe Revisited…Psychology and Robotic Delivery of the Bomb
2009 December 26tags:Defense Policy,Drones, Non-Proliferation, Nuclear War , Nuclear Weapons,Obama Administration,Public Issues,Strategic Warfare, Technology
 
,UAV,UAV's,Unmanned Drones,War    by Mitch Chester It’s not too soon to ask if aircraft drones equipped with small nuclear weapons are in our military future. The answer is yes, but itis less certainthe psychology and limits of using such technology are as clear.
As the United States and Russia embark on a new era of nuclear armscontrol in their effort to replace the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, a new pact prohibiting unmanned nuclear armed dronesseems a survival imperative.
 Tactical conventional weapon drones are currently used with precision impact against terrorist operations in Pakistan and other conflict points.They spare conventional pilots the extreme danger of being shot down, can circle target areas for hour at a time, perform exactingreconnaissance, have a long history of success and can be remotely controlled thousands of miles from the battlefield. They are now clearly anestablished instrument of American foreign policy. Despite issues of “collateraldamage,” such drones are highly effective.
 
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Remote warriors simulating lethal drone technology…is delivery of nuclear weapons using such robotics next?
 As nations assess future military capabilities, it is not surprising that
strategic
use of drones (including such devices with tactical nuclear weapons) is on mankind’s doorstep.
But crossing the tactical/strategic nuclear boundary when considering robotic air warfare is athreshold that we dare not cross. Before it gets too late, this technology should be arrested, contained and outlawed on a planetaryscale.
 Recent open discussion in the military press has centered on whether strategic bombers should be replaced by nuclear-armed drones. In theJune, 2009 issue of 
 Armed Forces Journal
, Air Force Research Institute Professor Adam Lowther pondered “whether it’s time to pursue along-range, unmanned and nuclear armed bomber.”
 ArmedForcesJournal.com
 published a November, 2009 article by Col. James Jinnette,warning the “defense establishment has become seduced by the idea of unmanned airpower,” some of which may be controlled byartificialintelligence. He points out that judgment and “creative capacity” may be pushed aside by such technology. With these voices, futuremilitarization takes on a most serious debate, as the world is embarking into uncharted intellectual killing territory.According to PW Singer in his TED talk of February, 2009, robotic war “changes the experience of the warrior, and even the identity of thewarrior.” (See video). The easier and faster it is to initiate a tactical nuclear attack, without endangering crew lives, the more we hide behindrobotics to accomplish our human instinct to kill. According to Singer, “Another way of putting this is that mankind’s 5000 year old monopolyon the fighting of war is breaking down in our lifetime.” The more we rely on machines, computer programs and remote control technology,the closer we approach the point of no return by (ironically) further dehumanizing war. Tactical military robotics with conventionalweapons can save lives, but nuclear equipped robotics can help end all life.Much of 20th Century nuclear policy was based on the psychology of “mutual assured destruction.”Human emotions controlled the threats. Itis that mindset that has helped us reach 2010. Another reason we have survived is that humans have instincts, and, at the personal level, thedesire to survive. It is those qualities that helped avoid an accidental nuclear exchange in 1995 when Russian Rocket Forces mistook ascientific missile launch for an ICBM attack. It is the exercise of reason and intuition that spared America during the 13 days of theCuban
 
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Missile Crisis. The more we encumber the exercise of human judgment (despite it’s frailties) by relying on highly complex but remotetechnology via nuclear delivery systems, the more inhumane, mechanical and likely nuclear war actually becomes. Machines lack consciousness, and if programmed improperly, they can be subverted to misunderstand logic.Scrutinizing psychology and technology, consider five practical questions posed by nuclear armed drone capabilities.
If pre-positioned drones with tactical or strategic nuclear weapons are employed, there will be less time to recall them in the eventof human miscalculation. True, once existing (and ready) intercontinental ballistic missiles are launched, there are precious few minutesto avert nuclear destruction. missile defenses would be of no value, given the extreme maneuverability of drone aircraft. The currenttime buffer to detect and kill an incoming threat is significantly reduced, however, by drones already at the target area, waiting for thecommand to destroy. If war is the result of human failings, we exponentially enhance mutual destruction if by allowing for roboticnuclear delivery systems which are far more flexible and timely than modern ICBM’s.
If nuclear armed drones are deployed as instruments of national policy, we risk international isolation and condemnation fromangered and threatened populations which are in harm’s way. (The Japanese have been outraged by the forward positioning of nuclear forces for decades). Nuke drones may actually increase the specter of war itself from threatened international actors such as nations andorganizations with the ability to embrace, and use, identical technology.
Since U.S. Preditor drones have already been hacked during the Bosnian war, and reportedly by Iraqi and possiblyAfghan insurgents using open source $26.00 software, what is to prevent enemy high-tech warriors from taking control of futureunmanned aerial vehicles (UAV’s) and re-directing them?(See December 17, 2009 CNN report). 
Given the potential for literally thousands of these lethal UAV’s pre-positioned across the globe, does it make sense to create newnuclear delivery vehicles which could replace or supplement existing missile technology? The Obama Administration publicly seeksreduction and eventual elimination of ICBM’s, but if all we are doing is substituting one class of vehicle for another, arms control effortswould merely be a shell game. Furthermore, if stealth technologyis employed in shielding UAV’s,national technical means of  verification(a key issue which is holding up a new treaty between the United States and Russia) would be next to impossible.
Canfailsafecontrols be employed effectively in nuclear UAV’s in an era of shrinking budgets across the globe? Rational military expertsneed double redundancy and recall controls up to the last seconds before pushing the button. We must not let technology get ahead of common sense.There should be absolutely no debate that completely automated doomsday drone machines should be abolished in the upcoming arms treatycurrently under review in Moscow and Washington. The likelihood of such a prohibition, is, of course, fraught with many humancomplexities. Just as in global warming and climate change, the world needs to wake up to the next great challenge of arms control, and avoidwhat happened with “the bomb.” We tried to control it, butwell after it was too late to contain.
 
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