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Special Report
Manning the barricades
Who's at risk as deepening economic distress fomentssocial unrestMarch 2009
Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion SquareLondon WC1R 4HQUnited Kingdom
 
The Economist Intelligence Unit
The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managingoperations across national borders. For 60 years it has been a source of information on business developments,economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide.The Economist Intelligence Unit delivers its information in four ways: through its digital portfolio, where thelatest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising seminars and presentations. The firm is amember of The Economist Group.
London
The Economist Intelligence Unit 26 Red Lion SquareLondonWC1R 4HQUnited KingdomTel: (44.20) 7576 8000Fax: (44.20) 7576 8500E-mail: london@eiu.com
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The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Building111 West 57th Street New YorkNY 10019, USTel: (1.212) 554 0600Fax: (1.212) 586 0248E-mail: newyork@eiu.com
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The Economist Intelligence Unit 60/F, Central Plaza18 Harbour RoadWanchaiHong KongTel: (852) 2585 3888Fax: (852) 2802 7638E-mail: hongkong@eiu.comWebsite:
www.eiu.com
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This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at www.store.eiu.com.Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databasesand as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office.
Copyright
 
© 2009 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication norany part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means,electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permissionof The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited.All information in this report is verified to the best of the author's and the publisher's ability. However, theEconomist Intelligence Unit does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it.ISSN 0269-7106
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Manning the barricades
1
 Special Report March 2009 www.eiu.com © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2009
Contents
2 Introduction: Banks, busts and batons5 After the crunch: Statement of scenarios6 Deflation and depression in the developed world10 Submerging markets13 Alternative risk scenario: Dollar collapse15 Political Instability Index17 Governments under pressure27 Beyond unrest
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