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North Korea after Kim Chong-il
Leadership Dynamics and Potential Crisis Scenarios
Ken E.Gause
IPR 15163/FinalNovember 2011
 
 
This document represents the best opinion of CNA at the time of issue.Approved for Public Release. Distribution unlimited.
Copyright © 2011 CNA 
This work was created in the performance of CNA Independent Research Funding. Any copyright in this work is subject to the Gov-ernment's Unlimited Rights license as defined in FAR 52-227.14. The reproduction of this work for commercial purposes is strictlyprohibited. Nongovernmental users may copy and distribute this document in any medium, either commercially or noncommer-cially, provided that this copyright notice is reproduced in all copies. Nongovernmental users may not use technical measures toobstruct or control the reading or further copying of the copies they make or distribute. Nongovernmental users may not acceptcompensation of any manner in exchange for copies. All other rights reserved.
Approved for distribution: November 2011
Eugene Cobble, Ph.D.Research Team Leader, Strategic Initiatives Group
 
 
Contents
Executive summary...................................................................................................................i
 
North Korean Regime Dynamics and Persistent Pressures...................................................1
 Regime dynamics under Kim Chong-il.................................................................................2Kim Chong-il as the focal point.........................................................................................2Competition within the system...........................................................................................3The ageing senior leadership and rise of new generations of leaders................................6Persistent pressures on the regime.........................................................................................8Economic pressures............................................................................................................8Social pressures................................................................................................................12An increasingly strained ideology....................................................................................14Laying the Foundation for Another Hereditary Succession................................................17The 2010 resurrection of the party and preparations for the post-Kim leadershipconfiguration....................................................................................................................19
North Korean crisis scenarios................................................................................................23
 Scenario 1: Continuation of the Kim regime, albeit in a weaker state................................26Characteristics and indicators of scenario 1.....................................................................26
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