ENTERING THE DRAFT EARLY: A RISKY PROPOSITION

In 1990 the NFL began to allow underclass players who had met certainrequirements to “declare” themselves eligible for the league’s entry draft.Over the past 11 years, as shown below, more than 360 underclass players weregranted draft eligibility. Of that group, two-thirds were drafted and just over tenpercent signed contracts as undrafted free agents. However, almost one out of every four underclass players were never offered an NFL contract.Many underclass players attempt to enter the league early because they believe, orhave been told, that they will be drafted in the first round. Unfortunately, for toomany players with such high expectations, reality has been harsh.Of the eligible underclass players who were drafted, over forty percent went in thefirst round. But, when viewed as a percentage of all players who declared, therewere only ten more picked in the first round than the number of players who neverwere able to negotiate a contract with any club.In probability terms, there’s been more than a 70% probability that any player whoenters the draft early will

not

be selected in the first round. And that’s a steep priceto pay when, for example, the average dollars earned for 2000 first round draftees ismore than $1.5-million a year as compared to less than $650-thousand a year forsecond rounders or just over $200-thousand a season for undrafted free agents.Nor is early entry rewarded when there can be a significant difference in the amountearned between players selected at the top of a round versus those in the middleand bottom of that same round. That extreme happened in 1990, the first yearunderclass players entered the draft. Three first round picks that season wererunning backs. One was a senior and he was the number two selection. Two juniorrunning backs also went in the first round, one at the seventeenth pick, the other atnumber 24. The running back who was the number two pick in the draft played forsix seasons, was a starter his first two seasons, was injured in his third season,became a backup and left the league after six seasons.The first of the two junior running backs is still active after eleven seasons and theother played eight seasons, all but one as a starter. And yet, the running backpicked number two in the draft, a senior, earned more than a million dollars a year

than the two juniors in the initial contracts they signed.

NoSeasonNumberDrafted%1st%2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th-12thFAContract

1990351954%926%31121011161991331958%412%34620003101992342471%1132%3113040121993362569%1028%33322102101994262388%831%641310031995312168%1032%132122461996251768%832%232110711997432865%1330%3440126101998311858%826%230221491999352571%1029%443400732000322063%619%54210257Total36123967%9727%3534251813853987Avg32.821.767%8.827%3.23.12.31.61.20.71.33.57.9% 27%10%9%7%5%4%2%4%11%24%

Same season, same round, same position. But the player who came into the leagueas a senior made a lot more when he entered, and it took at least five seasonsbefore the juniors were able to catch up with the number two pick in terms of salaryearned.The bottom line: Unless players receive a guarantee from the league—and theyprovide just such a service—that he will be picked in the top ten players selected inthe first round, the probability is that he will do better by playing his final collegeseason.A concluding note: Many times underclass players are warned by outsiders that theyshould enter the draft early because of potential injury risks. “What if you blow outyour knee as a senior? Where will you be then?”It turns out though that it’s hard to find real examples of that scenario occurring.Over the past eleven years there have been a handful at most. And compared withthe earnings differential between those players who came out early versus those whoplayed their final season, once again the wiser course has been to wait until allcollege eligibility is over.M. J. DubersteinNFLPA Director of ResearchAugust 2000

UNDERCLASS PLAYERS: 1990-2000

1990 TOTAL35ROUND BY ROUNDPERCENTFIRST926%SECOND39%THIRD13%FOURTH13%FIFTH26%SIXTH13%SEVENTH00%EIGHTH00%NINTH13%TENTH00%ELEVENTH00%TWELFTH00%UFA00%NO CONTRACT1646%YEARROUNDF AYEARS ACTIVEBennett, Tony199018Carrier, Mark1990110YGeorge, Jeff1990110YHampton, Rodney199018Lathon, Lamar199019McCants, Keith199016Seau, Junior1990110YSmith, Emmitt1990110YWare, Andre199014Cobb, Reggie199025Cox, Ron199028Hoard, Leroy1990210Spindler, Marc199039Mitchell, Scott1990410YFoster, Barry199055Wilson, Charles199055Wilson, Marcus199064Allen, Terry1990910Avg Career Length7.835Banks, Braxston19900Borgognone, Dirk19900Y0Burkhalter, Eugene19900Cash, Danny19900Culberhouse, Mike19900Gaines, Brad19900Geathers, Thurman19900Gould, Octavious19900Harris, Major19900Haynes, Robert19900Klemp, Jeff19900Mefford, John19900Mongeau, Chris19900Morris, Leanard19900Petitpas, Chuck19900Price, Cornelius19900Tregellas, John19900Avg Career Length00