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Background
By Jason Tockman
Incumbent President of Ecuador, Rafael Correa,captured almost 52 percent of the votes in the April 26, 2009general election. His victory reflects popular support, as wellas the electorate’s repudiationof traditional political parties.Lacking solid bonds with society,Ecuador’s parties are widely perceived as corrupt, inefficient,and unresponsive
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. In choosingto retain Correa for four moreyears, Ecuadorians have optedfor a measure of political stability in a country accustomed tointerrupted presidencies. ey have also rewarded Correa fordelivering his major promise: anew political constitution.In his 2006 presidentialcampaign, Correa pledgedto convene a Constituent Assembly to reform thecountry’s constitution. Hequickly delivered, and theassembly drafted Ecuador’stwentieth constitution. isnew charter was later approvedby 64 percent of voters in apopular referendum. It includesprovisions that expand socialand economic rights, and itseeks to include traditionally marginalized groups into the
Flash Report
on Ecuador: Correa’s “Citizens’ Revolution”Centre for the Study of Democratic InstitutionsThe University of British Columbiawww.blogs.ubc.ca/andeandemocracy
Written by Santiago Basabe Serrano, Jason Tockman, Santiago Anria and Maxwell A. Cameron
Foreign Affairs andInternational Trade CanadaAffaires
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@UBC
Political Party orMovement*CandidatePercentage
Votes ObtainedAP Rafael Correa 51.99% 3,585,337PSP Lucio Gutiérrez 28.24% 1,947,255PRIAN Álvaro Noboa 11.40% 786,355RED/MIPD Martha Roldós 4.33% 298,700MTM Carlos Sagnay 1.57% 108,212MTF Melba Jácome 1.35% 93,210MITS Diego Delgado 0.63% 43,391MIJS Carlos González 0.49% 38,811
Table 1. Presidential Elections Results (2009)* AP=Alianza País; PSP=Partido Sociedad Patriótica; PRIAN=Partido Renovador Institucional AcciónNacional; RED/MIPD=Red Ética y democrática/Movimiento Independiente Polo Democrático;MTM=Movimiento Triunfo Mil; MTF=Movimiento Tierra Fértil; MITS=Movimiento de Integracióny Transformación Social; MIJS=Movimiento Independiente Justo y solidario.Blank votes: 533.265; Null votes: 495.887Source: Ecuador’s CNE, elaborated by Santiago Basabe Serrano.
Table 1. Presidential ElectionsResults (2009)Executive Summary
Rafael Correa’s victory in the April 26 general elections pavesthe way for the implementation of his proposed “citizens’revolution.” With almost 52 percent of the vote in his favor,Correa is in a position to accelerate the changes already initiatedby his government. e President has successfully exploitedthe weakening of Ecuador’s traditional party system, and hisvictory signals a reconfiguration of the already fragmentedparty system. A constitution approved by referendum in 2008is being implemented in an attempt to institutionalize a moreparticipatory democracy. e new constitution concentratespower in the executive branch, however, and critics fear that thiscould erode mechanisms of horizontal accountability and unleashauthoritarian tendencies from the executive. e challenge forEcuador’s emerging new democratic order will be to reconcileparticipation with representation.
 
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Flash Report on Ecuador: Correa’s “Citizens’ Revolution”
political order. It also increasesstate control over the economy,particularly in social services,energy and natural resources.e new constitution centralizespower in the executive andallows presidents to run for twoconsecutive four-year terms.However, Correa’sdecision to convene a constituentassembly stirred polarizingdebates. In early 2007, thiscontention played out inbitter confrontation betweenthe president and oppositionparties. Correa emergedvictorious in March 2007, whenthe Supreme Electoral Tribunal(TSE) stripped 57 oppositionalMembers of Congress of theirseats. In April 2007, 82 percentof Ecuadorian voters endorsedthe president’s plan to convenea Constituent Assembly 
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. eassembly, dominated by Correa’sparty and other forces aligned with it, dissolved the Congressand assumed full lawmakingpowers
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.roughout thisprocess, it became clear thatCorrea’s approach to governancecontinued in line with his2006 presidential campaign. As a political outsider, Correaused personal charisma andmedia savvy to “disorient,demoralize and disorganizepolitical opponents.”
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In office,his presidential style has beenplebiscitary, both in terms of Correa’s use of referenda toinstitute major reforms, and hisunmediated appeals to an ill-defined pueblo (“the people”) inorder to bypass institutions.In November 2008,in accordance with the newly approved constitution, theNational Electoral Commission(CNE) announced that electionsfor the president, National Assembly, provincial prefectsand mayors would be held in April 2009. President Correa’sposition in national pollsconsistently hovered around50 percent, with the remainderof support divided among afragmented field of candidates,none of which individually surpassed 20 percent. While Correa won adecisive victory in the Aprilelections, his party, AlianzaPaís (AP), did not achievean absolute majority in theNational Assembly. Although itdid become a predominant forcein the legislature, Correa and AP will still have to cooperate withsmall left-wing forces to securea narrow majority. Reachingaccords with these groups may not be an easy task, however,as some of these forces recently moved into the opposition inresponse to Correa’s policiesand style. For instance,the Movimiento PopularDemocrático, which is thelargest leftist party after AP, hasrecently expressed its oppositionto the government. Having lostthe MPD as a potential ally (and having alienated otherprogressive forces), Correaand AP will have to negotiatealliances with a handful of atomized left-wing partiesin order to avoid legislativegridlock. e questions will behow, and with whom.
Election Results: Analysis andImplications
By Santiago Basabe Serrano(translated by Santiago Anria)
Correa’s victory in the April 26general elections paves the way for the implementation of hisproposed “citizens’ revolution.” What does this mean for Ecua-dor’s precarious democracy?
A president elected in the firstround, and a new conception ofdemocracy
Correa’s popular support is un-precedented since Ecuador’sreturn to democracy in 1979. According to the CNE, Correareceived the support of 51.99of those who voted. is wasenough to guarantee his re-elec-tion in the first round, as theConstitution establishes that asecond round is not required if a candidate exceeds 40 percentof the vote and also defeats thenearest challenger by at least 10points. e closest rivals – for-
Photo Credit Yamil Salinas Martínez under Creative Commons licence
 As a political outsider, Correa used personalcharisma and media savvy to “disorient, demoralizeand disorganize political opponents.”
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Flash Report on Ecuador: Correa’s “Citizens’ Revolution”
mer president Lucio Gutiérrez,and banana magnate ÁlvaroNoboa – obtained 28.24 and11.40 percent of the votes re-spectively.On January 15, 2007,President Correa assumed of-fice for the first time. However,the new constitution establishesthat his first mandate will be-gin in August 2009. Given thatthe new constitution allows onepresidential re-election, and as-suming for the sake of argumentthat voter preferences remainconstant, Correa could hypo-thetically add up to ten consec-utive years in office. While Correa’s victory signals a reconfiguration of thealready fragmented party sys-tem, it also represents a new  way of understanding Ecuador-ian democracy. In the first place,although the traditional partiesretain a degree of representa-tion in the Congress, AP’s pre-ponderance suggests that smallparties may soon evaporate. A potential consequence of thisprocess could be the configura-tion of a party system around ahegemonic actor. In the secondplace, Correa’s successive elector-al victories can be understood asan expression of growing popu-lar acceptance of a more par-ticipatory democratic regime. According to this conception of democracy, increasing popularparticipation — for example,through referenda — is moreimportant and has more legiti-macy than simply the periodicelection of representatives.In sum, Correa’slandslide victory can be ex-plained through the existence of a dysfunctional party system, theatomization of the opposition(which is incapable of represent-ing the demands and interestsof the populace), and Correa’scredibility based on deliveringthe new constitution. e sumof these elements – together withCorrea’s anti-systemic discourse,his confrontational stance to- ward the media, and his promiseof a more centralized economicmodel – has shaped the electoralsuccess of the so-called “citizens’revolution.”Correa’s victory, how-ever, did not translate into amajority in the 124-seat con-gress. Although the ruling APgained 59 seats – which ensurespredominance within congress– the party will need to negoti-ate with small left-wing forces toavoid legislative gridlock. eseforces include: the Maoist Mov-imiento Popular Democrático(MPD), the populist PartidoRoldosista Ecuatoriano (PRE),the social-democrat IzquierdaDemocrática (ID), and the in-digenous-backed MovimientoPachacutik (PCK).Negotiating alliancesmay not be easy. But even if Correa fails to negotiate legis-lative agreements with smallerparties, this would not neces-sarily lead to a stalemate. enew constitution has altered theexecutive-legislative balance of forces in ways that further con-centrate power in the hands of the president. Failing to stitchup a majority in congress,Correa could rule by presiden-tial decree, and rely more on ap-peals to the ballot-box to reachhis policy objectives. AP performed wellsub-nationally, where it wonseveral provincial governmentsand mayoralties. It did well inthe provinces of Pichincha and Azuay (home of two of the mostimportant Ecuadorian cities,Quito and Cuenca, respective-ly). Notwithstanding its successin those provinces and cities, APfound it difficult to penetrate inthe province of Guayas and inthe city of Guayaquil (Ecuador’smost populous and economical-ly active center). ese difficul-ties constitute a pressing chal-lenge for the Correa-led rulingmovement. It should be notedthat Jaime Nebot and his center-right Social Christian Party wonthe mayoralty of Guayaquil, as well as the provincial govern-ment of Guayas.
Deepening the “Citizens’Revolution”?
By Santiago Basabe Serrano(translated by Santiago Anria)
 After the presidential results were made available, Correa an-nounced his intention to deep-en, radicalize, and accelerate thechanges already initiated by hisgovernment. Considering hisstatements and trajectory, it ispossible to outline some of the
President Correa, October 2005
Photo Credit: Republic of Ecuador – used under Creative Commons Licence
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bruciek

I don't think so, according to the narcoterrorist "JOJOY" he is just a puppet of them

reply09 / 07 / 2009
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