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1
Another Look at China’s 12
th
5-Year Plan
China - Hong Kong Nexus AgainProf Y C Richard WongThe University of Hong Kong
17 October 2011Fulbright Visiting Scholar 2011 Presentation
 
2
The Distribution of World GDP 1978 & 2009
19782009
Source : UNSD Statistical Databases
 
3
Super Growth Forecasts
•
Citi Investment: (assumed 5% per capita growth rate in agrowth convergence model) China in 2040 dominanteconomy $58 trillion (PPP) ; US $31 trillion (PPP) in2040. By 2050 India dominant economy.
•
Subramanian (FA): (assumed growth rate 7%) China in
2030 dominant economy with 20% world’s GDP; 15% for 
US; per capita GDP at $33,000 will be half of US.
•
Robert Fogel: China will produce $123 trillion GDP by2040 assuming an average annual growth rate of about10.8 percent a year for more than 30 years
•
Fogel:
 
"Beijing has proven quite adept in tackling problems it has set out to address." 
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