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Revenue & Taxes from Oakland's Cannabis EconomyReport to Measure Z Oversight Committee
By Dale Gieringer & Richard Lee - Nov. 6
th
, 2006Revenues from Medical Cannabis Dispensaries (MCDs).
Table 1 shows thegross revenues reported by Oakland's medical cannabis dispensaries to the city's businesstax office for the past three fiscal years.
Table 1 – Gross revenues reported by Oakland MCDs
Fiscal YearRevenuesBusiness Tax(0.12%)Est. Sales Tax @8.75%2004$26,161,538.78$31,393$2,289,1342005$16,422,722.0519,7071,436,9382006$ 5,461,824.146,533477,910The city has experienced a dramatic dropoff in revenues and taxes from MCDssince FY 2004. This can be attributed to the closure of most of the MCDs under the city'sdispensary regulation ordinance, which reduced their number from seven to four in thesummer of 2004 (i.e., at the beginning of FY 2005). A more dramatic dropoff occurredin FY 2006, when licensing problems forced the closure of two more MCDs, includingthe largest one, Compassionate Caregivers. Since the end of FY 2006, the city haslicensed another two, bringing the total back to four.The city has been collecting business tax from MCDs at the rate of 1.2 mils ongross revenues. Most, but not all, MCDs are currently paying sales tax, as the taxabilityof medical marijuana is still in dispute before the Board of Equalization. The amount of sales tax from cannabis business is estimated in Table 1 by assuming that revenues areequal to sales and applying the 8.75% sales tax rate. Although actual tax returns fromOakland's MCD's are not available, more detailed figures have been released concerningan MCD in Modesto that was recently raided by the DEA, California HealthcareCollective, Inc. At the time of the raid, CHC was paying $93,000 per quarter in federalIRS taxes, $25,000 per quarter in state payroll taxes, and $50-60,000 per month in salestaxes. This amounts to annual sales tax payments of over $600,000 per year, more thanthat collected in FY 2006 from Oakland MCDs, even though Oakland is twice aspopulous.While the revenues in Table 1 are indicative of the general scale of medicalcannabis business in Oakland, they should not be interpreted too literally. First, asubstantial portion of revenues were not reported due to accounting difficulties posed bythe continuing illegality of marijuana commerce under federal law. In particular,cultivation remains in the underground cash economy. Growers rarely have businesslicenses or file taxes on their full income, and they aren't issued IRS 1099 forms reportingtheir sales. Hence wholesale cannabis commerce is by and large not accuratelyaccounted for. While accounting standards have been improving since passage of theMCD ordinance, they are still far from satisfactory.Secondly, the reported revenues reflect a substantial amount of out-of-Oaklandbusiness due to the fact that Compassionate Caregivers, while headquartered in Oakland,
 
- 2 -operated six outlets elsewhere in the state during FY 2004; five of these were closed inMay- June, 2005, but a San Francisco outlet continued to operate even after CC'sOakland facility was closed in Sept. 2005. Thus revenues reported by CC reflect asizable amount of out-of-Oakland sales.
Potential Size of Oakland's Medical Cannabis Market
While the accuracy of the revenue figures in Table 1 is difficult to gauge, it'suseful to compare them to the estimated size of the medical cannabis market in Oakland.This can be deduced by estimating (1) the number of MCD customers in Oakland and (2)the average marijuana consumption per customer.
(1) Oakland customer base:
Current estimates of the number of medicalcannabis patients in California range from 150,000 to 350,000, based on data from patientregistries and doctors specializing in cannabis medicine [1]. This corresponds to 1,750 –4,100 patients scaled to Oakland's population. This is consistent with figures from theOakland Cannabis Buyers' Cooperative ID card program, which reports about 3,400 totalOakland registrants, of whom about 1,700 are currently active. Their count is incompletebecause not all Oakland patients have OCBC cards.The actual customer base for Oakland's MCDs extends beyond the city limits.Oakland is a center for patients from Alameda and Contra Costa counties, which have acombined population of over two million. MCDs report that at least 75% of theircustomers come from outside Oakland proper. A rough estimate of the effectivecustomer base from greater Oakland might therefore be four times that from the cityproper, i.e. around 7,000 – 16,000 patients.
(2) Average medical cannabis consumption and expenditures.
Based oninterviews with MCDs, patients and doctors, mean cannabis consumption ranges aroundone pound per patient per year, corresponding to one gram or one or two cigarettes perday. Typical retail prices are about $45 per one-eighth ounce = $12.50/gram =$5,800/pound.At one pound per patient, it follows that Oakland patients consume about $10 -$23 million of cannabis per year. Consumption by the greater Oakland customer basewould be four times higher, around $40 – $92 million. Of course, these customers do notnecessarily buy all or even most of their medicine from Oakland facilities. Still, thesefigures provide a rough gauge of the potential of Oakland's medical cannabis market.The total California medical cannabis market can be estimated at $870 million - $2billion. If sold in the retail market, sales tax revenues would come to $3.5 - $8 millionin greater Oakland, and $70 - $160 million in the entire state,
(3) Non-medical cannabis.
The medical market is only a fraction of the totalcannabis market. Some 1.6 million Californians have smoked marijuana within the past30 days, according to the most recent survey from the National Household Drug Abuse.On average, their consumption is less than for the medical population, many being onlyoccasional users. Adjusting for this fact, total consumption of marijuana in Californiacan be reasonably estimated at around 1 million pounds per year, or $5.8 billion (see
 
- 3 -appendix). Scaled to Oakland's population, this is $68 million; including the widercustomer base from outside the city, the total is $272 million. Corresponding sales taxrevenues would be $6 - $24 million for Oakland, or $460 million for the whole state.
Employment:
MCDs in Oakland typically employ around 15 to 20 persons.Before being closed, Compassionate Caregivers reported some 100 employees on itspayroll.Oakland also hosts a number of spin-off industries catering to the cannabismarket: edible manufacturers (bakers and candymakers); grow stores; vaporizers andother paraphernalia; medical cannabis clinics; ID card validation (OCBC), and a giftshop and newspaper. Employment in these businesses probably amounts to severalscore jobs.This does not count employment in cultivation. We estimate that it requires about20 persons to grow 100 pounds/month, enough to supply 1,200 patients. It follows that120 - 260 persons are currently engaged in supplying the greater Oakland patient base.Of course, not all of these jobs are local, much of Oakland's supply being imported fromelsewhere in the state.
Conclusions:
(1)
 
The medical cannabis business has the potential to contribute tens of millions of dollars per year to the Oakland economy. Reported revenuesfrom MCDs have been as high as $26 million and could potentially rangeas high as $62 million.(2)
 
Revenues reported by Oakland's MCDs declined 80% to $5 million in thewake of enactment of the ordinance limiting their operations.(3)
 
Sales tax payments by Oakland MCD's could potentially range as high as$5 million, but were less than $500,000 in FY 2006.(4)
 
The non-medical "adult use" market could yield three to six times asmuch, ranging up to $272 million in revenues and $24 million in salestaxes for Oakland.(5)
 
A substantial portion of the cannabis economy remains off the books.This is especially true of the cultivation industry, which is virtuallyentirely underground in the cash economy.(6)
 
Oakland's MCD's currently provide jobs for nearly 100 workers, half asmany as before the MCD ordinance. Hundreds more are engaged in off-the-books underground cultivation operations to supply the MCDs.SOURCES
[1] Estimate of 150,000 by Dale Gieringer, based on extrapolation from Oregon's patient registry(2005) http://canorml.org/prop/cbcsurvey2.html. Estimate of 350,000 by Fred Gardner extrapolated fromsurvey of California cannabis specialists with 146,000 patients. "Medical Marijuana in California, 1996-2006," by Dr. Tod Mikuriya, Jeffrey Hergenrather, Philip A. Denney, Frank H. Lucido, Marian Fry, DavidBearman, Tom O’Connell, Robert Sullivan, William Eidelman, Helen Nunberg, and William Courtney: in
O'Shaughnessy's,
Autumn 2006 (forthcoming). See "10 Years of Legalized Medical Pot in California: Dr.Mikuriya's Obervations,"
Counterpunch,
Nov. 4
th
2006, http://counterpunch.org/gardner11042006.html.
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