• Embed Doc
  • Copy Link
  • Readcast
  • Collections
  • CommentGo Back
Download
 
1
CPD OPINION POLL RESULTS, 7
th
September 2011
Press ReleaseBackground
The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), an independent, non-partisan, non-profit policy researchorganization, conducted a public opinion poll of a national representative sample of 1,500registered Zambian voters. The poll was conducted from 16
th
to 30
th
August 2011 covering allthe nine provinces of the country, 27 districts, 61 constituencies and 137 wards. This is thesecond public opinion poll conducted by CPD in the last five months. The last poll wasconducted in April this year. It was found necessary to conduct a second poll to ascertain voterpreferences ahead of the 2011 elections after the Election Date was announced and theelection campaigns were underway.This poll has been conducted by CPD in the public interest. It has not been sponsored by anyindividual or organization, either local or foreign. We take note of the fact that severalorganizations have carried out and report opinion poll results on the voting intentions of theZambian electorate. We have no relationship with any of the organizations that have conductedopinion polls in recent months. Neither do we feel any pressure to conduct an opinion pollsimply because other organizations have done so. Our aim has been to carry out our plan toconduct two poll: one before the election date was conducted and the other after the electiondate was known. Indeed, it is on public record that in our April poll reported in May 2011 wereported that the largest opposition party, Patriotic Front (PF), had an edge over the rulingparty party (MMD). Specifically, we reported that: if elections for parliament took place at thattime (April), the PF would be elected with 30% of the votes, followed by MMD with 27%, UPND10%, others 3% and 31% were undecided. On the other hand, if elections for the President tookplace at that time Michael Sata of the PF would have obtained 31%, Rupiah Banda of MMD29%, Hakainde Hichilema of UPND 12%, 1% others and 27% were undecided.These findings were trivialized, if not totally ignored in some sections of the media. Others tried
to discredit them as not reflecting ‘the situation on the ground.’ If anything, the main finding of 
our April poll was that a large number of the electorate (close to a third) was undecided and assuch the poll results were inconclusive.
Aims and Objectives
We are very aware those opinion polls generate a lot of emotion and negative reporting,especially when we come close to the elections. Individuals and organizations that are notfavoured in the polls have tended to denigrate those publishing opinion poll results anddiscrediting the findings. We will not be discouraged from doing our because of the fear to becriticized, we believe that is part of democracy, as individuals try to do damage control andappeal to the sensibilities of the voters.
 
2
The main aim of this poll was not to promote the interest of any political organization in thiscountry nor a particular candidate, but rather to help gauge the public mood two weeks beforeZambia goes to the polls. The specific objectives of this opinion poll were:(a)
 
To ascertain issues of concern to the Zambian electorate ahead
of this year’s general
election;(b)
 
To ascertain public opinion on satisfaction with performance of the economy and theirown living standards;(c)
 
To ascertain public opinion on government performance, including the performance of President Rupiah Banda;(d)
 
To solicit views of voting intentions ahead of the elections;(e)
 
To understand the nature of the electorate at this point in time;(f)
 
To promote public debate around the issues of concern to the electorate;(g)
 
To assist political parties and candidates to take account of public opinion in theirelections campaigns and strategizing; and(h)
 
To assist the general public to make much more informed electoral choice that will addvalue to Z
ambia’s democratic dispensation.
 In reporting the results of this public opinion poll, CPD means well and does not in any way wishto disadvantage any political party nor candidate. The results we report on today were notpredetermined but are the opinions of the 1,500 randomly selected individuals for this survey.
We are confident that the opinions we report on are representative of Zambia’s public opinion
at this point in time. In order to give context to these results, we will discuss and analyse thembased on our current research of Zambian political dynamics conducted over the last sevenmonths.
Sample
The sampling methodology involved a multistage, purposive and random sampling of districtsand households. Respondents were selected purely at random and were interviewed in face-to-face interviews.The sample of 1,500 was drawn from the universe of registered Zambian voters giving a marginof error of +/-2 percent at 95 percent confidence level. The sample size was drawnproportionate to the number of registered voters in the country based on the ElectoralCommission of Zambia final register of voters 2011.
 
3
Distribution of interviews
Province Number of interviews %
Central 135 9Copperbelt 240 16Eastern 195 13Luapula 120 8Lusaka 225 15Northern 195 13North-Western 90 6Southern 180 12Western 120 8
Total National 1,500 100Area
Rural 870 58Urban 630 42
Total 1,500 100
This area distribution approximates the national demographic situation as recently reported inthe provisional report of the National Census of Population and Housing by the Central StatisticalOffice (CSO).
Gender Distribution
No. of interviews %
Male 735 49Female 765 51
Total 1,500 100
The gender distribution represents the national demographic situation.
Age
Years No. of interviews %
18
 –
24 695 4625 - 35 398 2736 - 55 218 1556 years and above 156 10Could not determine age 33 2
Total 1,500 100
The majority (73%) of our respondents were young in the age groups 18 to 35. The oldestrespondent was 93 years old.
of 00

Leave a Comment

You must be to leave a comment.
Submit
Characters: ...
You must be to leave a comment.
Submit
Characters: ...