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Centre for Policy Dialogue
Results of the CPD Opinion Poll
Report 
May 2011
Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), 284B Omelo Mumba Road, Rhodes Park, P O Box 31061, Lusaka, ZambiaPhone: +260 (211) 236281; Cell: 0977 702089.
CPD
 
2
Results of the CPD Opinion Survey
Summary of key findings
 
The Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), an independent, non-profit and non-partisan policy researchorganization, undertook an opinion survey of public attitudes of Zambians ahead of the 2011 GeneralElections from 14
th
to 24
th
April, 2011. The survey was based on a national probability samplerepresenting a cross-section of adult citizens of voting age, who are registered voters. The survey wasbased on a sample size of
1,200
individuals, which allows inferences to the national adult populationwith a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent with a confidence level of 95 percent. It wasconducted in all the nine provinces and sampled 19 districts, 38 constituencies and 70 wards.The specific objectives of the opinion survey were to: ascertain public attitudes towards theperformance of the government, assess public opinion on issues of concerns to the public ahead of the
elections and to solicit opinions on voter preferences in this year’s elections.
In line with its mandateCPD hopes that the results of this opinion poll results will help promote public debate, informpolitical parties and the policy community on issues of concerns to the general public, assist politicalparties to target voters and forge strategic alliances and help the public make informed choices of who
to vote for in this year’s elections.
Summary of key findings
 
The majority of Zambians are not satisfied with their living conditions today, compared to 3 yearsago.
 
Poverty and unemployment are considered as the most important problems facing the country bythe majority of Zambians.
 
The majority of Zambians do not approve the restoration of the Barotseland Agreement beingdemanded by some people in Western Province. However, most Zambians do not approve themanner in which the Government handled the demands for the restoration of the BarotselandAgreement in Western Province this year.
 
Most Zambians disapprove the decision by Parliament not to pass the Constitution of Zambia Bill.But many Zambians blame the Government and the ruling MMD for the failure of theConstitution of Zambia Bill.
 
Most Zambians (50%) approve the performance of President Rupiah Banda so far. However, theassessment of government performance is rather mixed and equally divided between those whothink that government performance is good or very good and those who said it is poor or verypoor.
 
The approval rating of President Rupiah Banda
’
s performance is highest in Eastern Province(79%), followed by North-Western (71%) and Southern (55%). His lowest approval rating in inLuapula province at 40%.
 
Majority of Zambians think that Michael Sata would be tougher on corruption than Rupiah Bandaand Hakainde Hichilema. Most Zambians think that President Rupiah Banda
’
s government hasnot performed well in combating corruption compared to other previous governments.
 
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Most Zambians are of the view that the MMD cares more about education, health, agriculture andthe development of rural areas than any other political party.
 
Close to half of registered voters (47%) did not vote in the 2008 presidential elections. Of thosewho did not vote in the 2008 presidential elections, more than half of them are young (agedbetween 18 and 30 years).
 
Most Zambians are of the opinion that the break-up of the PF-UPND pact will have a great effecton the outcome of this year
’
s elections.
 
If elections for parliament took place today, the Patriotic Front would be elected with 30%,followed by MMD (27%), UPND (10%), and other parties would receive 3% of the votes. Close to athird (31%) of the electorate is undecided. If the number of undecided is excluded, the PF wouldobtain 43%, MMD 39%, UPND 15% and others 3%.
 
At provincial level PF would win Luapula (78%), Northern (65%), Copperbelt (55%) and Lusaka(44%). MMD would retain Eastern (71%), North-Western (64%), Central (49%) and Western (49%).While UPND would only win Southern Province (60%).
 
If elections for president was to take place today, Michael Sata of PF would be elected with 31%,followed by Rupiah Banda with 29%, Hakainde Hichilema would obtain 12% and 1 percentwould go to other presidential candidates. 27% of the electorate is undecided. But if the number ofundecided voters is excluded, Michael Sata would obtain 43%, Rupiah Banda 39%, HakaindeHichilema 15% and other candidates would share 3%.
 
At provincial level if election for president was to be held today,
Michael Sata
’
s
support would beas follows: Luapula (76%), Northern (65%), Copperbelt (55%), Lusaka (47%), Central (38%),Western (36%), Eastern (27%), North-Western (15%) and Southern (14%).
Rupiah Banda
’
s
supportat provincial level is distributed as follows: Eastern (69%), North-Western (67%), Central (48%),Western (40%), Copperbelt (39%), Lusaka (31%), Northern (30%), Southern (27%) and Luapula(14%). While
Hakainde Hichilema
’
s
support is: Southern (58%), Lusaka (19%), North-Western(18%), Central (14%), Copperbelt (6%), Northern (5%), Luapula (4%) and Eastern (3%).
 
The poll results suggests that there is no clear favourite to win this year
’
s elections given thecloseness of the main contenders and the fact that almost a third (31%) of the electorate isundecided. However, it is clear that the main contenders are Michael Sata of PF and RupiahBanda of MMD.
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