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2011
PRISONERS OF REGIME CHANGE – THE FIRES OF THE MAGHREB
 The ‘Arab spring ’aided by NATO has in principal delivered its two mainobjectives of removing ‘ renegade’ regimes in North Africa and plantingthe seeds of the process of democratisation in the region. While thisshould be applauded, for example for the first time since 1950s, NorthAfricans are presented with a window of opportunity to choose their ownleaders through the ballot box, adopt inclusive moderate governmentsand move away from Islamic extremism and perhaps determine their owndestinies if not financial destines of the liberators. Despite the globalemergence of democracy especially in Sub-Sahara Africa and drivetowards democracy and good governance, the history of Africa as acontinent is one of immense political, economical and social pain. Inparticular it is undeniable that Colonial Africa was a crime againsthumanity. But what is even more painful is that post colonial Africa isassociated with political mismanagement, nepotism, poverty, racialdiscrimination, greedy, corruption and violent civil wars, It is also a periodassociated with direct and indirect external interference by powerful andwealth nations, and failure by colonial masters to let their former coloniesdetermine their own destinies economically i.e. the economic welfare of African countries are inextricably linked to colonial activities and theinfluence colonial masters still exert on different levels on their formercolonies.Post independent African states have seen liberators come in differentguises from misguided local politicians with visions of self grandeur likeEmperor Bokasa of Central Africa, to military dictators like Amin of Uganda, Qaddaffi of Libya and Mubarak of Egypt, Socialists like JuliusNyerere of Tanzania and Kenneth Kaunda of Zambia, to toothlessinternational institutions that does the bidding of wealth and powerfulnations, to global figures who directly interfere using the clock of religionas the cover to control and spread fear, to fat cats planning the nextsource of plunder and new innovative way of manipulating leaders inAfrica through bribes in exchange for lucrative deals and contracts, and tothose who take sides in conflicts for their own corporate or personal gainas mercenaries.Africa has seen uprisings and revolution of various intensities and sizes,and the Arab spring is the latest in the quest for democratisation and goodgovernance. However, if the demand for democracy and democratisationwas the major objective of the Arab spring then the revolution onlysucceeded in removing the mouth pieces as the power base which is oftenthe military just changed hands from one military regime to the other asseen in Egypt. More like meet the new boss same as the old one. Inessence it has also allowed the Islamic brotherhood to come from theshadows to the forefront where they stand a chance as a result of growingimpatience with the government. The citizens perhaps have started to
 
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think that the new rulers are dragging their feet in implementing theprocess of democratisation and getting rid of the old regime andimproving the standards of living. Without seeing concrete changes the jubilation will easily turn to apathy towards new leaders. In Libya if thenew regime does not deliver the country risks the rise of old elements of the Qaddaffi regime, and we have seen this picture in Tunisia and otherplaces throughout the world where the defeated and reviled make politicalcomeback even more popular than before. Once the honeymoon is over itwill be difficult for the new masters to play the old regime blame card.People demand change and often they want it now.At the moment lets toast and cherish the emergence of new regimes inthe Maghreb while keeping a keen eye on the lessons of the past. Onething this planet has in abundance is history, from the Incas to GenghisKhan, from Pharaoh Piye to Alexander of Macedonia, from William Wallaceto Shaka history teaches us that both the defeated and the liberatedalways pay a price one way or the other to the liberators. This has beenthe historical way and presumably the best way of doing things that theliberated pay some form of tribute to their liberators. The humaninterrelational dynamics points to the idea that human beings includingthe institutions they serve do not do things for free. NGOs needed to befunded, so are Charities, including the UN. There is no single entity thatcan claim to do things for free somebody along the path has either paidthe price or will pay the price to pass on something as a freebie, toparaphrase a title of a famous eco movie this is uninconvenient truth. Theonly thing that is free is the planet we live on and the air so enjoy theplanet while it lasts. There are three sides to any revolution, uprising or conflict: thoseengaged in a conflict whose sole motive is to win a war and be a top dog,the defeated or losers and the external beneficiaries (sponsors) usuallyindividuals, governments or groups who stand to gain more from newdynamics that emerge post conflict. It is vital to point out that no countrysupports regime change for nothing, such a country or institution standsto go bankrupt. It is also imperative to understand that countries dothings for self interest. For example, the reasons we are told as to whythe UK or France relentlessly supported regime change in Libya, Egypt, Tunisia and now in Syria include spreading democratic values, protectingcivilians, and the usual fear of African immigrants flooding WesternEurope. While those might have been reasons, they forgot to include thatnorth African leaders have always been a thorn in the back side of European nations as they control vast amounts of oil reserves which gasguzzling citizens of western Europe need. There is nothing wrongwatching out for your country and doing things in the interest of yourfellow citizens. However, despite the vast oil resources, children born inNorth Africa where the Arab spring has swept are born in economicslavery. The citizens of these countries are held in bondage by military
 
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regimes that rule them with impunity and they are strangled by globalcorporations who will do anything to support regimes for profit. They feelbetrayed by wealth nations that covertly and overtly support andsubsidize dictatorial regimes while preaching democracy to the poor. It istrue that there are regimes that are so oppressive, corrupt and tyrannicalwhich powerful and wealth nations will never exert pressure on becausethey are friends more a case of it is better to deal with the tyrant youknow than the one you think you know – they have figured out that it isbest to support a friendly dictator than an enemy, and there are crediblereasons for this. Therefore, the real reasons for regime change are often economic andpolitical. It is reasonable to assume that there is always a question posedindirect or directly, covertly or overtly, and that question is why should wesupport you not your enemy, in other words what is in for my country,myself or my corporation? With the evidence emerging now it is clearthat the Qaddafi regime treated opposition with impunity and used Libyaas a personal pig bank. The colonel fantasized being the only saviour of Africa i.e. the king of kings of Africa. However, despite his visions of self grandeur he did manage to develop Libya, brought the country fromisolation, abandoned the WMD programme, compensated the victims of the Lockerbie disaster, welcomed western companies back to Libya,Libyans had free education up to university level paid for by the Qaddaffiregime, initiated big innovative projects such as water from the desert,the colonel funded the African Union and prevented the rise of Islamicextremism in Libya. Despite all this he was despot who ruled with an ironfist and often behaved like a military lunatic. Under Mubarak, Qaddaffi,Ben Ali political opponents were executed and dissent was brutallysuppressed. This has been the evil trend with all dictators in history fromNazi Germany to Botha during Apartheid. Therefore, dictators, despots,tyrants, corrupt and oppressive leaders should not be given an ounce of opportunity or a place to hide on the planet.So while celebrate and toast what has been accomplished so far in theMaghreb let us take time to ponder and ask a few questions. Is it time forthe ‘liberated’ to pay the piper and at what cost to the Libyan, Egyptianand Tunisian people? What would be the role of the former colonialmasters, UK, USA and France as the ‘liberated’ countries attempt torebuild and moves on? Has the Maghreb just created an opportunity forthe rise of Islamic fundamentalism? North African countries arefundamentally semi-feudal tribal systems which in case of Libya colonelQaddaffi managed to keep together be it through bribes and incentives;would the new rulers be able to handle a fragmented society such asLibya? Who gets all the oil and gas contracts? Would there ever be awestern version of democracy in North Africa and would that be good forthe region?
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