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2012 
SANDS OF TIME: SYRIA AND THE DOMINO PLAYERS (PART 2)In the previous article I discussed the political and social history of Syrian in reference to herlove affair with political radicalism and authoritarianism which intensified under Hafez Al-Assad (the father) and has unfortunately continued under Bashar Al-Assad (the son). In adesperate determination to hang on to power the Bashar regime has amplified its use of themilitary force against its own civilian instead of open civil dialogue. Syria under Bashar isslowly sliding into an all out civil war which has unenviable potential to engulf the entireMiddle East. Such a scenario will be bad for everyone and this will no doubt trigger a globalfight for over resources. The Bashar regime is not entirely isolated and can always count onits traditional allies Russia and China. The Bear and the Dragon have enjoyed a closerelationship with both the Al-Assad regimes for the last 40 years. In some way Russia andChina have helped brought a semblance of economic prosperity through trade and politicalstability through diplomacy to Syria
. From its political foundation, Ba’athist regimes have
governed Syria by a mixed philosophy of socialism, communism and elements of moderncapitalism (in later Hafez Al-Assad years) wrapped around autocracy in a similar fashion tomany former socialist states in former Eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East.Today people all over the world including political commentators, scholars and human rightsactivists observing the turn of events in the Middle East and the Maghreb are pre-occupiedby a single concern and that is the delay or perceived reluctance by the internationalcommunity (UN, NATO, EU, etc) to intervene in Syria given that they were swift to act andforce regime change in Libya by any means necessary. Though NATO appeared to go beyondresolution 1973, the intervention did bring a swift end to the conflict and ushered in a newgovernment in Libya. For the protestors in Syria and the supporters alike the demands of theArab spring are universal and the call for regime change long overdue. The events in Syriacannot be anymore similar to those in Libya and yet when it comes to action the UN appearsto be dragging its feet to action. However, for NATO or the UN to intervene there has to be acollective agreement among members of the UN Security Council and concerted effort to apolitical resolution in Syria by the Syrians themselves and their comrades (Arab League).Unlike Libya, the opposition against the Al-Assad administration within the Arab world isfragmented, the reason being that Gaddafi was perceived to be more aligned to Sub-Saharawhich infuriated most of his Arab comrades in the Maghreb and the Middle East and
naturally turned against him. Gaddaffi’s antics and illusions of self 
-grandeur did not help hisposition either. The Arab League has not tabled a comprehensive and convincing demand forthe international community to intervene but simply presented a post assessment planrequesting Bashar and his regime to relinquish power and for elections to be held within sixmonths. This request is in reference to the General Assembly resolution A/RES/66/176 of 19December 2011, as well as Human Rights Council resolutions S/16-1, S/17-1 and S/18-1.
 
 
2012 
However, when the Arab League presented the resolution it was swiftly and mercilessly shotdown by China and Russia on 5
th
Feb 2012.The constant play of the veto card by powerful nations is a prerogative and serves as apowerful tool that keeps the balance of power between nations within the realms of the UNregulations. Under UN laws Russia and China have has the right to use the veto as membersof the UN Security Council. However, this latest use of the veto by Russia and China hasdemonstrated critical flaws in the design, composition and inner workings of the UN and inparticular the UN Security Council as the veto is perceived by many to have been used in badfaith. Political analysts have suggested that the latest veto has given a massive window of opportunity to the Bashar regime to intensify action against ordinary Syrians protestorswhile the UN and NATO crawls to a new plan. Russia and China have been good tradingpartners and political allies of Syria. Syria is home to a Russian naval base and a customerfor its telecommunication, agricultural, medical and military supplies and China is obviouslyan emerging partner but has also been a political ally to Syria for over 40 years. Thus, anabrupt regime change in Syria will impact the allies of the Bashar regime.An intervention in Syria will require a universal agreement by all member nations of theinfluential organs of the UN but such an agreement will only come if events in Syria take aturn for the worst. However, to people in Syria events have already passed that stage andtime is ripe for action and intervention. The current consensus at the UN is that at themoment there is not enough evidence that air strikes would be effective in Syria, and suchactions would require the permission of surrounding countries to use their air space in closeproximity to Iran a country deemed a pariah state by the west. Potentially, Israel airspacecould be used as a launching platform but that would be adding gasoline to the diplomaticfirewood. I doubt it that Israel would give permission to NATO to use its airspace as it wouldnot want to be drawn in a protracted internal conflict.According to Ivo Daalder, US ambassador to NATO there is no plan, appetite or desire at themoment within all 28 members of NATO to intervene. NATO and the EU are careful andweighing the events on what possible regime might replace Bashar. The only militaryopposition in Syria is the free army of Syria (comprised of volunteers and defectors from theregular Syrian army). Unfortunately, this rag tag army at this stage cannot fight a wellresourced and armed Syrian regime but his does not mean that there is no covert help offeredto them already in terms of financing, logistics and armament perhaps this will become cleardown the line.
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