World Population Growth
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Global population is almost 6.5 billion
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3 billion people in their reproductive years
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50 million abortions in the world per year
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1/4 pregnancies in developed countries end in abortion
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The Population Bomb
by Paul Ehrlich, 1960s
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Predicted hundreds of millions of people would die in the 70s and 80s
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Need for population control
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Predictions weren’t true
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Thomas Malthus’s (demographer) predictions in 1798
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Only finite population could be supported
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Human population increases in geometric progression
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Food production increases in arithmetic progression
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Result: a) preventative checks (eg fewer children per family); b) famine,disease, war
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Predictions weren’t true
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Predictions about the earth’s carrying capacity
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Ravenstein (6 billion) in 1891, Penck (7.7-9.5 billion), Pearson and Harper,Gilland, etc.
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Julian Simon: no limit
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Rate of population increase has begun to slow
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Death rate : proportion of the population that dies in a particular year
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Infant mortality rate : death rate of young children (under 5)
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Average life expectancy : number of years that a child born in a certain country canexpect to live
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Since 1820, decrease in death rates has been much sharper: main cause of populationgrowth
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Greater increase in life expectancy in developed countries than in less developedcountries since 1820
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Population growth unevenly distributed
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90% of future population increase will be in developing countries
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Greatest increase has been and will be in Asia, smallest in Europe
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Africa will double its population in 25 years
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20% of world population lives in developed countries, will drop to 16% in 2020
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74 countries will double their populations in 30 years or less
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These countries have a large population base, and more women are enteringtheir reproductive years
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Annual number of births worldwide is 132 million
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Over the next generation, more people entering their reproductive years than leavingthat phase of life
Population structure
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Population structure : age and sex distribution of the population
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Population pyramids , or age-sex diagrams: number or proportion of each age groupshown as horizontal bars, male usually on the left
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LEDCs : Less Economically Developed Countries
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MEDCs : More Economically Developed Countries
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LEDCs have population structure with wider base, MEDCs have narrower base
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Fertility rates : average number of births per woman
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Replacement level is 2.1 children per woman
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Fertility rates have fallen everywhere (eg 6.7 to 3.1 in Bangladesh)
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Africa: 5.3 births/woman; South central Asia: 3.8 births/woman; World: 2.8births/woman
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