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Volcanic Dust, Sunspots, and Temperature TrendsAuthor(s): Stephen H. Schneider and Clifford MassSource:
Science,
New Series, Vol. 190, No. 4216 (Nov. 21, 1975), pp. 741-746Published by: American Association for the Advancement of ScienceStable URL:
http://www.jstor.org/stable/1741582
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21November1975,Volume 190, Number 4216
VolcanicDust,Sunspots,TemperatureTr
Acalculatedglobalsurfacetemperaturehistcsomesimilarities to knowntemperaturehis
StephenH. Schneider and CliffoiManypossiblecausesofclimaticchangehavebeenpostulatedovertheyears (1).Themostdeterministicofthesecausesarelabeledexternal,sincetheyarenot them-selvesthoughtto be influencedbythe cli-maticstate.Small variationsintheearth'spositionrelative to thesun,variationsinthe total fluxof solarradiationreachingthe earth'sorbit(thesolar"constant"),volcaniceruptionsthatperiodicallyinjectdustintothestratosphere,orchangesinthecompositionof theatmosphereor thecharacteristicsof theearth'ssurface due tohumanactivitiesareexamplesofsuchex-ternalcauses.On theotherhand,fluctuationsincli-matemightalsoresult frominternalex-changesofenergybetweenthelargereser-voirs-theatmosphere,oceans,and icemasses-whichcollectively comprisetheclimaticsystem.Lorenz(2)termed thepossibleexistenceofsomeinternal causesofclimaticchangeorself-fluctuationsintheclimaticsystem"almost intransitivi-ty."Towhat extentthestatistics of the ac-tualclimaticsystemcanbeattributedtointernal orexternalcauses,or to acom-bination ofthese,isperhapsthechiefopenquestioninclimatetheory(3).Ourpurposeinthisarticle isto examinequantitativelytheextenttowhich twoof-tenproposedexternalcausesof climaticchange,volcanic dust andvariations in thesolarconstantcorrelatedwithvariablesunspotactivity,mightaccount forthegeneralpatternsofsurfacetemperaturevariationsinceA.D. 1600.Weexamine theconsequencesinasimpleclimatic modelof
21NOVEMBER 1975
theassumptionsthatternalcausalfactorsaicsystem.Similaritieputedsurfacetemper1600 andthe observecbequickly interpretethe external factorsrecord;instead,theyothese factorsmayha,shapeof therecordhowever,indicate thegramto measure solastrumentscapableoftenthsof apercentthsun'soutput,(ii)antitativeinquiryinto tldust onradiative he;tionsin theatmosphereconstructionof theperaturehistory,(iv)parameterizationsthamodelingstudiesoftsurfacetemperaturetlfactors,and(v)anexcdictabilityof volcanicHeatingParameterizaSunspots.Solarvtroversial,yetoften
ii
explainclimaticchanlong-termrecord of tradiationreachingtlbeencompiledfromplatform.Manyattentomeasurethesolarwillhenceforthcall
SCIE
NCE
S),and the differencebetweenindividualmeasurementsoften exceedsthe stated ac-curacyofeach measurement. Further-more,manyof these data weretaken with-in theearth'satmosphere,whichincreasesthechancethattherecordwas con-
and
taminatedbyfluctuationsinatmosphericturbidity.Thus,thereportoftheStudyof
ends
Man's Impact on Climate concluded thatourprecise knowledgeof thesolarparame-ter was insufficientfor climatictheoryand
wryas
modelingand recommendedthat it bede-termined toanabsolutevalueof"better
4tories.
than
+
0.5%,and that thespectraldistri-bution of solar radiation from1800 A to40,000A" bedetermined "toafewper-rd Masscent"(5,p.87).However,twowell-knownstudies,byagroupat the SmithsonianAstrophysicalObservatory (6)and aSovietgroup(7),theseproposedex- have related the solar parameter to thereforcingthe climat-number of sunspots.The findingsof both:sbetween ourcom- groups suggest that the value of S increasesraturepatternssince withsunspotnumber, but eventually reach-Ipatternsshouldnot esamaximumand subsequently decreases.dasindicatingthat Kondratyevand Nikolsky'sresult (7), forexplainthe observedexample,suggeststhatSis morethan 2 rnlydemonstratethat percent lowerfor no sunspotactivitythanvecontributedto thefor moderateactivity(anannualaverageSuchcorrelations,sunspotor Wolf number N~80), and de-
>
needfor(i)apro-creasesagainto near its valueatN= 0for.rvariabilitywith in- high activity (N 200). The validity offresolvingtoa fewthis controversialrelationship, whichwase timehistoryof the derivedfrom balloon measurements in theincreased andquan-atmosphere,is not inquestionhere(8).heeffectsof volcanicHowever,the potential climaticcon- atingrates andmo- sequences of such alargevariationin S, if-re,(iii)animproveditoccurred,issufficiently compellingtoglobalsurfacetem-warranttestingthe relationS(N).Todo)improved physicalthis weinferfrom the timehistoryof NaitwillpermitrefinedtimehistoryofS,which we thenuse asin-thesensitivityof theput intoasimpleclimatic modelbasedonochangesinexternalenergybalance tocomputea timehistoryaminationofthepre-ofsurfacetemperatureTs.Thecon-(and solar)activity.sequencesforaclimaticmodel ofaccept-ing S(N)isthus demonstrated.KondratyevandNikolsky getgoodagreementwiththeitionsrelation(attributedtoAngstrom)ariabilityisa con-nvokedhypothesistoIges (4).Todate,nohe totalfluxof solarheearth'sorbithasanextraterrestrialnptshave been madeconstant(which-wethe solarparameter,
S(N)=1.903+0.011 N'2-0.0006N
calcm2min-'(1)ThevariationofNhas beenrecordedformany yearsbyastronomersand isgivenin
S. H.Schneiderisdeputyheadof the ClimateProjectatthe NationalCenter forAtmosphericRe-search,Boulder,Colorado80303,andC. Mass isstudyingclimatetheoryandmodelingintheDepart-ment ofAtmosphericSciencesat theUniversityofWashington,Seattle 98105.711
 
Fig.la,whichisthesourceofN(t)valuesused formodelforcing.Thesunspotnum-bers before 1710shownbythe solid lineare fromEddy(9),and thoseshownbythedashedlinesareourinterpolationsbetweenEddy'sdata.Thus,temperaturescomput-ed fordatesbeforeabout 1650 are also in-terpolations.Thedata between 1710 and1960arefromWaldmeier(10),thosebe-tween 1961and 1975 are from theSolarGeophysicalDataprompt reports (11),and theprojectionfor1975 to 1989(dottedline)isfromSleeper (12). Combining N(t)fromFig.1withEq.1givesthetimehis-toryof themodulation ofSby sunspotactivity,ASs(t),which ispartof theinputtothe climate model.TheremarkablefeatureofFig.lais therelative absence ofspotsfromabout1650throughabout1700,theso-calledMaunderminimum.Eddy(9),who hasdelved into rare bookcollec-tionsto uncoveraccountsofastronomers
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300250200150
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at thattime,concludes thattheMaunderminimummaywellbeanindicationofthe absence ofsunspots,notsimplyadearth ofmeasurements.Volcanicdustveils. Volcanic dust veilshave beenproposedas anexternal cause ofclimaticchangeprimarilybecausetheycanscreen out(scatterandabsorb)severalper-cent of the direct solarbeam,thereby pre-ventingsomeof thesolarenergyfromreachingthe loweratmosphere.Wemimicthis effect onsolarradiationbydefiningarelationshipbetween increasesinvolcanicdustconcentrationsand effectivedecreasesin thesolarparameter,whichisscaledpro-portionaltothedust increase. The "dustveilindex,"compiledandtabulatedbyLamb(13)from acombinationof histori-cal accounts and direct measurements ofvolcanic contributionsto thestratosphericaerosol,isused here asgiveninFig.lb.Again,we are notattemptingtocomment
695525
t t1975
18401880 1920 1960
2000
1.96
C
1.941.931.921.91160.90 1720 1760 1800 184 1880 1920 1960 19891.89 -I8816001640168017201760 18001840 1880 1920 1960 1989
Year
Fig.1.Inputorcingo themodelcalculations.a)MeanannualunspotWolf)numbers ersusime(seetextforsources). b)Volcanicdustveil ndexof Lamb13).(c)Combinationfsunspotnddustvariabilitynto atime-varyingecordf solarparameterariation(t) (see text).
742
onthevalidityofsuch anapproachto thereconstruction ofvolcanic dustconcentra-tions,butrather areinterested inhow thistimeseriesofvolcanicdust concentrationsmightinfluence thetimeseriesofcomput-edsurfacetemperature patterns.Weuse theobservationsfromMaunaLoaObservatoryin HawaiitoscaleLamb'sdust veil indexagainstS(t).Obser-vationsatMauna Loa show thatthetrans-missionof direct solarradiationdroppedsharply, bynearly2percent,after theerup-tion ofMountAgunginBaliin1963(14).Since mostoftheextinction of direct solarradiation is scattereddownward,it reachesthe loweratmosphereinanycase.Weas-sume thatonly25percentof theextinctionofthedirectbeam shouldbeusedfor de-terminingtheequivalentdecrease in solarparameter,ASD,due to volcanic dust.(Notethatwearereferringhereto down-wardscatteringandnot to forward scatter-ing-inthedirectionoftheincidentsolarbeam-forwhichsomewhatmore than75percentwould be assumed toreachtheloweratmosphere.)SinceAgung'serup-tiondecreaseddirecttransmissionz2.0percent,we scale thedust veil index sothatits value forAgung(160in Lamb's relativeunits)isequivalenttoa 0.5percentde-crease inthe solarinputat thetopoftheloweratmosphere. (Thisscalingincludestime variations inSattributedto sun-spots.)This 0.5percentvalue forAgungisingoodagreementwith the calculatedval-uesofCoakleyand Grams(15).Modelingthe influence ofstratosphericdust veils onclimatebyanequivalentde-crease inS isreasonable as a first-orderapproximationto theinfluence ofastrato-sphericaerosolonthe radiativeinputtothe loweratmosphere (16).However,sev-eralothermitigatingorenhancingeffectsarepossible.Probablythemostsignificantadditionaleffectwouldbe an increaseindownward infrared(IR)radiationat thetropopause,which wouldtend tooffsetsomewhat thecoolingeffectofastrato-sphericaerosolon the loweratmosphere.Theeffect ofadust veilonthe downwardIRradiationcan bebroken downinto(i)an increasein the IRopacityofthe strato-sphereduetothedust,and(ii)achangeinstratospherictemperaturetraceabletochangesin the netheating byvisible andIR radiativefluxes in thestratosphere.Whereasthe firsteffect wouldalwaystendtoincrease the downwardIR(andthusoff-set thecoolingbelow the dustlayer),thesecondcouldact either to increase orde-creaseit,dependingonwhether theper-turbedradiation fieldtended to heat orcoolthestratosphere.Unfortunately,thewarmingorcoolingisacomplicatedfunc-tion of thewavelength-dependentabsorp-tionandbackscatteringcoefficients ofthe
SCIENCE,VOL. 190
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