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Convexity Conundrums: Pricing
CMS Swaps, Caps, and Floors*
38
Wilmottmagazine
specified by the contract. So if interest accrues at rateR, then
cvg(tst ,tend , dcb)Ris the interest accruing in the interval tstto tend.
1.1 Deal definition
Consider a CMS swap leg paying, say, theN year swap rate plus a margin
m. Let t0, t1, . . . , tmbe the dates of the CMS leg specified in the contract.
(These dates are usually quarterly). For each periodj, the CMS leg pays
\u03b4j (Rj+ m)
paid attj
forj= 1, 2, . . . ,m ,
(1.3a)
whereRjis the Nyear swap rate and
\u03b4j=cvg (tj\u22121 ,tj ,dcbpay )
(1.3b)
is the coverage of intervalj. If the CMS leg isset-in-advance (this is stan-
dard), thenRj is the rate for a standard swap that begins attj\u22121and ends
Nyears later. This swap rate is fixed on the date\u03c4j that is spot lag business
days before the interval begins attj\u22121, and pertains throughout the inter-
val, with the accrued interest\u03b4j (Rj+ m )being paid on the interval\u2019s end
1 Introduction

I\u2019m sure we\u2019ve all been there: We\u2019re in hot competition with another bank over a deal. As the deal evolves, our trading team starts getting pushed around the market, and it dawns on us that the other bank\u2019s pricing is better than ours, at least for this class of deals. We could fix this problem by inventing a universal method for achieving the best possible prices for all deal types. That topic will be covered in a future column, next to the column on Elvis sightings. Here we focus on a sin- gle class of deals, the constant maturity swaps, caps, and floors. We develop a framework that leads to the standard methodology for pric- ing these deals, and then use this framework to systematically improve the pricing.

Let us start by agreeing on basic notation. In our notation, today is
alwayst=0. We use
Z(t; T)=value at date tof a zero coupon bond with maturity T, (1.1a)
D(T)\u2261 Z(0, T)=today\u2019s discount factor for maturity T.
(1.1b)

We distinguish between zero coupon bonds and discount factors to remind ourselves that discount factors are not random, we can always obtain the current discount factorsD( T)by stripping the yield curve, while zero coupon bondsZ( t, T) remain random until the present catches up to datet. We also use

cvg(tst ,tend , dcb)
(1.2)
to denote thec o ve ra ge (also called the year fraction orday count fraction) of
the periodtstto tend, wheredcbis the day count basis (Act360, 30360,. . .)
* The views presented here are soley the views of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bear-Stearns or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries.
Patrick S. Hagan
tj\u22121
tj
intervalj
tj
dj
Fig. 1.1.jth interval of a \u201cset-in-
advance\u201d CMS leg.
IN THE TRENCHES
Bear, Stearns & Company 383 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10179
phagan@bear.com
Wilmottmagazine
39
^
date,tj. Although set-in-advance is the market standard, it is not
uncommon for contracts to specify CMS legss e t - i n - a r re a r s. ThenRj is the
Nyear swap rate for the swap that begins on the end date tjof the inter-

val, not the start date, and the fixing date\u03c4j forRj is spot lag business days before the intervale n d s attj . As before,\u03b4j is the coverage for thejth interval using the day count basisdcbpay specified in the contract. Stan- dard practice is to use the 30360 basis for USD CMS legs.

CMS caps and floors are constructed in an almost identical fashion.
For CMS caps and f loors on theN year swap rate, the payments are
\u03b4j[R j\u2212K]+
paid attj
forj= 1, 2, . . . ,m ,
(cap),
(1.4a)
\u03b4j[K\u2212 R j]+
paid attj
forj= 1, 2, . . . ,m ,
(floor),(1.4b)
where theNyear swap rate is set-in-advance or set-in-arrears, as specified
in the contract.
1.2 Reference swap

The value of the CMS swap, cap, or floor is just the sum of the values of each payment. Any margin paymentsmcan also be valued easily. So all we need do is value a single payment of the three types,

Rs
paid attp,
(1.5a)
[Rs\u2212 K]+
paid attp,
(1.5b)
[K\u2212 Rs]+
paid attp.
(1.5c)

Here the reference rateRsis the par rate for a standard swap that starts at dates0, and ends N years later atsn. To express this rate mathe- matically, lets1, s2, . . . , sn be the swap\u2019s (fixed leg) pay dates. Then a swap with rateRfix has the fixed leg payments

\u03b1jRfix
paid atsj
forj= 1, 2, . . . ,n ,
(1.6a)
where
\u03b1j=cvg(tj\u22121 ,tj ,dcbsw )
(1.6b)

is the coverage (fraction of a year) for each periodj, anddcbsw is the stan- dard swap basis. In return for making these payments, the payer receives the floating leg payments. Neglecting any basis spread, the floating leg is worth1paid at the start dates0 , minus 1paid at the end datesn . At any datet, then, the value of the swap to the payer is

Vsw(t)= Z(t; s0)\u2212 Z(t; sn)\u2212 Rfix
n
\ue001
j=1
\u03b1jZ(t; sj ).
(1.7)
Thele vel of the swap (also called theannuity, PV01, DV01, or numerical dura-
tion) is defined as
L(t)=n
\ue001
j=1
\u03b1jZ(t; sj ).
(1.8)

Crudely speaking, the levelL( t) represents the value at timet of receiving $1 per year (paid annually or semiannually, according to the swap\u2019s fre- quency) forN years. With this definition, the value of the swap is

Vsw(t)=[Rs(t)\u2212 Rfix]L(t),
(1.9a)
where
Rs(t)=Z(t; s0)\u2212Z(t; sn )
L(t)
.
(1.9b)
Clearly the swap is worth zero when Rfixequals Rs(t), so Rs(t)is the par
swap rate at datet. In particular, today\u2019s level
L0= L(0)=n
\ue001
j=1
\u03b1jD j=n
\ue001
j=1
\u03b1jD(sj ),
(1.10a)
and today\u2019s (forward) swap rate
R0s= Rs(0)=D0\u2212Dn
L0
(1.10b)
are both determined by today\u2019s discount factors.
2 Valuation

According to the theory of arbitrage free pricing, we can choose any freely tradeable instrument as ourn u m e ra i re. Examining 1.8 shows that the levelL( t) is just the value of a collection zero coupon bonds, since the coverages\u03b1j are just fixed numbers. These are clearly freely tradeable instruments, so we can choose the levelL( t) as our numeraire.1 The usual theorems then guarantee that there exists a probability measure such that the valueV( t) of any freely tradeable deal divided by the numeraire is a Martingale. So

V(t)= L(t)E
\ue002
V(T)
L(T)
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
Ft
\ue004
for anyT> t,
(2.1)
provided there are no cash f lows betweent andT.

It is helpful to examine the valuation of a plain vanilla swaption. Con- sider a standard European option on the reference swap. The exercise date of such an option is the swap\u2019s fixing date\u03c4 , which is spot-lag busi- ness days before the start dates0. At this exercise date, the payoff is the value of the swap, provided this value is positive, so

Vopt(\u03c4 )=[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 Rfix]+ L(\u03c4 )
(2.2)
on date\u03c4. Since the Martingale formula 2.1 holds for anyT >t, we can
evaluate it atT=\u03c4, obtaining
Vopt(t)= L(t)E
\ue002
Vopt(\u03c4 )
L(\u03c4 )
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
Ft
\ue004
=L(t)E
\ue005
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212Rfix]+
\ue003
\ue003
Ft
\ue006
.
(2.3)
In particular, today\u2019s value of the swaption is
Vopt(t)= L0E
\ue005
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 Rfix ]+
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue006
.
(2.4a)
40
Wilmottmagazine
PATRICK S.HAGAN

Moreover, 1.9b shows that the par swap rateRs( t) is the value of a freely tradable instrument (two zero coupon bonds) divided by our numeraire. So the swap rate must also a Martingale, and

E{Rs(\u03c4 )|F0}=Rs(0)\u2261R0s .
(2.4b)

To complete the pricing, one now has to invoke a mathematical model (Black\u2019s model, Heston\u2019s model, the SABR model,. . .) for howRs (\u03c4 ) is distributed around its mean valueR0s . In Black\u2019s model, for example, the swap rate is distributed according to

Rs(\u03c4 )= R0s e\u03c3x\u221a \u03c4\u221212\u03c32 \u03c4,
(2.5)
wherexis a normal variable with mean zero and unit variance. One
completes the pricing by integrating to calculate the expected value.
2.1 CMS caplets
The payoff of a CMS caplet is
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K]+
paid attp.
(2.6)

On the swap\u2019s fixing date\u03c4, the par swap rateRs is set and the payoff is known to be[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K ]+Z(\u03c4; tp), since the payment is made ontp. Evalu- ating 2.1 atT=\u03c4 yields

VCMS
cap(t)=L(t)E
\ue002
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212K]+ Z(\u03c4;tp)
L(\u03c4 )
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
Ft
\ue004
.
(2.7a)
In particular, today\u2019s value is
VCMS
cap(0)=L0E
\ue002
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212K]+ Z(\u03c4;tp)
L(\u03c4 )
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue004
.
(2.7b)
The ratio Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )is (yet another!) Martingale, so it\u2019s average value
is today\u2019s value:
E
\ue005
Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue006
=D(tp)/L0.
(2.8)
By dividingZ(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )by its mean, we obtain
VCMS
cap(0)=D(tp)E
\ue002
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K]+Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )
D(tp)/L0
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue004
,
(2.9)
which can be written more evocatively as
VCMS
cap(0)=D(tp)E
\ue005
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K]+
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue006
+D(tp)E
\ue002
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K]+
\ue007
Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )
D(tp)/L0
\u22121
\ue008\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue004
.(2.10)
The first term is exactly the price of a European swaption with
notionalD( tp)/ L0, regardless of how the swap rate Rs(\u03c4 )is modeled. The
last term is the \u201cconvexity correction\u201d. SinceRs(\u03c4 ) is a Martingale and
\ue009
Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )
\ue00a
/
\ue009
Z(t; tp)/L(t)
\ue00a
\u22121is zero on average, this term goes to zero
linearly with the variance of the swap rateRs(\u03c4 ), and is much, much
smaller than the first term.

There are two steps in evaluating the convexity correction. The first step is tomodel the yield curve movements in a way that allows us to re- write the level L(\u03c4 )and the zero coupon bond Z(\u03c4; tp)in terms of the swap rateRs. (One obvious model is to allow only parallel shifts of the yield curve.) Then we can write

Z(\u03c4; tp)/L(\u03c4 )= G(Rs(\u03c4 )),
(2.11a)
D(tp)/L0= G(R0s),
(2.11b)
for some functionG( Rs). The convexity correction is then just the expect-
ed value
cc= D(tp)E
\ue002
[Rs(\u03c4 )\u2212 K]+
\ue007
G(Rs(\u03c4 ))
G(R0s)\u22121
\ue008\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
\ue003
F0
\ue004
(2.12)
over the swap rateRs(\u03c4 ). The second step is to evaluate this expected
value.

In the appendix we start with the street-standard model for express- ingL(\u03c4 ) andZ(\u03c4; tp) in terms of the swap rateRs. This model uses bond math to obtain

G(Rs)=
Rs
(1+Rs /q)\ue000
1
1\u2212
1
(1+Rs /q)n
.
(2.13a)
Hereq is the number of periods per year (1 if the reference swap is annu-
al, 2 if it is semi-annual,. . .), and
\ue000=tp\u2212s0
s1\u2212 s0
(2.13b)

is the fraction of a period between the swap\u2019s start dates0and the pay datetp. For deals \u201cset-in-arrears\u201d\ue000=0. For deals \u201cset-in-advance,\u201d if the CMS leg datest0, t1, . . . are quarterly, thentp is 3 months after the start dates0 , so\ue000=12 if the swap is semiannual and\ue000=14 if it is annual.

In the apprendix we also consider increasingly sophisticated models for expressingL(\u03c4 ) andZ(\u03c4; tp) in terms of the swap rateRs, and obtain increasingly sophisticated functionsG( Rs).

We can carry out the second step byreplicating the payoff in 2.12 in terms of payer swaptions. For any smooth functionf(Rs) withf( K)=0, we can write

f\ue000(K)[Rs\u2212 K]++
\ue00b
\u221e
K
[Rs\u2212 x]+f \ue000\ue000(x)dx=
\ue002
f(Rs)for Rs> K
0 forRs<K.
(2.14)
Choosing
f(x)\u2261[x\u2212 K]
\ue007
G(x)
G(R0s)\u22121
\ue008
,
(2.15)
of 00

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