Future Scenarios: How Communities Can Adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change
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About this ebook
In Future Scenarios, permaculture co-originator and leading sustainability innovator David Holmgren outlines four scenarios that bring to life the likely cultural, political, agricultural, and economic implications of peak oil and climate change, and the generations-long era of “energy descent” that faces us.
“Scenario planning,” Holmgren explains, “allows us to use stories about the future as a reference point for imagining how particular strategies and structures might thrive, fail, or be transformed.”
Future Scenarios depicts four very different futures. Each is a permutation of mild or destructive climate change, combined with either slow or severe energy declines. Probable futures, explains Holmgren, range from the relatively benign Green Tech scenario to the near catastrophic Lifeboats scenario.
As Adam Grubb, founder of the influential Energy Bulletin website, says, “These aren’t two-dimensional nightmarish scenarios designed to scare people into environmental action. They are compellingly fleshed-out visions of quite plausible alternative futures, which delve into energy, politics, agriculture, social, and even spiritual trends. What they do help make clear are the best strategies for preparing for and adapting to these possible futures.”
Future Scenarios provides brilliant and balanced consideration of the world’s options and will prove to be one of the most important books of the year.
David Holmgren
David Holmgren was born in Fremantle, Western Australia, in 1955. As a child of working class political activists he was greatly influenced by the social revolution of the late 1960s and early 1970s. While travelling around Australia in 1973 he fell in love with the Tasmanian landscape and joined the innovative Environmental Design School in Hobart. Over the following three years an intense working relationship with his mentor Bill Mollison led to the development of the permaculture concept and set the course of both mens lives. As the young co-author of Permaculture One in 1978, David shunned the limelight and focused on further developing his practical and design skills for a self-reliant lifestyle. Since then he has written several more books, conducted workshops and courses throughout Australia, New Zealand, Israel, Japan, the Americas and Europe. As a consultant designer he has developed a great expertise in the temperate landscapes of south-eastern Australia with a strong bioregional focus on his home territory. Since 1985 he has lived with his partner Su Dennett in Hepburn, central Victoria, on their property Melliodora, one of Australia's best-known permaculture demonstration sites.Within the international permaculture movement, David is respected for his commitment to presenting permaculture ideas through practical projects. Together with Su, David teaches by personal example that a sustainable lifestyle is a realistic, attractive and powerful alternative to dependant consumerism. This book is the distillation of a life lived by the principles of permaculture.
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