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 CBS News PollFor release: Monday July 18, 20116:30 pm EDT
 
The Debt Ceiling Debate ContinuesJuly 15-17, 2011
 
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Americans are now divided on whether the debt ceiling should be raised; 46% think itshould be, while 49% think it should not. But three in four Americans would prefer to seean agreement they do not fully support than for the U.S. to go into default (14%).
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At the same time, there is some skepticism about what would happen if the debt ceilingis not raised – 51% think the U.S. would probably not default on its debts. However,there is growing concern about what would happen to the U.S. economy and the stockmarket -- nearly half now thinks a severe downturn would be very likely.
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43% approve of how President Barack Obama is handling the debt ceiling talks, but just31% approve of the Democrats in Congress and only 21% approve of how theRepublicans in Congress are handling the negotiations. 60% see the President as reallytrying to come up with an agreement; just 32% say the same for Republicans inCongress.
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Majorities think the President and Congressional Republicans and Democrats shouldcompromise their positions to get something accomplished. 66% think an agreementshould include both spending cuts and tax increases.
What To Do
Support for raising the debt ceiling has increased 22 points since last month, and Americans arenow more closely divided on the issue. 46% now say the debt ceiling should be raised becauseotherwise the country could default on its loans, causing severe problems for the U.S. economy.Last month, only 24% favored increasing the debt ceiling. 49% say it should not be raised(down from 69% in June) because the country owes too much money already, and raising it willcause long term consequences.
Should the Debt Ceiling be Raised?
All 6/2011Yes 46% 24%No 49 69The more Americans are following the issue, the more they are in support of raising the debtceiling. A slight majority (51%) of those following the debt ceiling debate very closely think thedebt ceiling should be raised, compared to just 29% of those not following the issue closely.
 
A majority of Democrats (61%) now supports raising the debt limit, a reversal from last monthwhen most (54%) opposed it. Republicans and independents continue to be against raising thedebt ceiling, but more favor raising it now than did in June. Tea Party supporters are especiallylikely to be against an increase in the debt limit – three in four say they are.
Should the Debt Ceiling be Raised?
Republicans Democrats Independents Tea PartyNow 6/2011 Now 6/2011 Now 6/2011 Now 6/2011Yes 33% 16% 61% 35% 40% 21% 23% 16%No 64 81 31 54 55 72 73 83Most Americans (66%) think any agreement on the budget and debt ceiling should include acombination of both spending cuts and tax increases. Just 28% think an agreement shouldinclude only spending cuts and even fewer – just 3% - say it should solely include tax increases.Majorities across the political spectrum want to see a debt ceiling agreement that contains bothspending cuts and tax increases, but Republicans and Tea party supporters are more likely thanDemocrats and independents to want an agreement that includes just spending cuts.
Agreement on the Debt Ceiling Should Include…
All Reps Dems Inds Tea PartyOnly tax increases 3% 1% 7% 1% 0%Only spending cuts 28 39 20 28 44Both spending cuts and tax increases 66 55 71 68 53In the end, Americans overwhelmingly prefer an agreement on the debt ceiling they don’t fullysupport (76%) rather than no agreement that would cause the U.S. to default on its debts (14%).
Which Would Be More Acceptable on the Debt Ceiling?
All Reps Dems Inds Tea PartyAn agreement I don’t fully support 76% 78% 80% 72% 64%Having the U.S. default on its debts 14 14 11 17 28Eight in ten Americans are following the debate about raising the debt ceiling, including 29%who are following it very closely.
What Could Happen
When asked what they think the outcome might be if the debt ceiling is not raised, 38% think theU.S. will probably default on its debts if a deal isn’t reached, but more, 51%, think the U.S. willprobably not default. Republicans and independents are less likely than Democrats to think theU.S. will default.
Will the U.S. Default on its Debts if a Deal Isn’t Reached?
Total Reps Dems IndsProbably 38% 31% 45% 37%Probably not 51 58 43 54
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However, eight in 10 Americans think a severe downturn in the economy and the stock marketis at least somewhat likely if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, including 45% who think that is verylikely. Concerns about this have grown; the percentage that thinks this is very likely to occurhas risen 20 percentage points since last month.
Likelihood of a Severe Downturn in Economy/Stock Market if Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised
Now 6/2011Very likely 45% 25%Somewhat likely 37 47Not very likely 13 18More than half of Americans are convinced that a failure to raise the debt ceiling will mean thatcertain entitlement payments will be stopped, such as payments to veterans and Social Securitypayments. 54% think this is at least somewhat likely – including 27% who think it is very likely,up from 19% last month. 44% think this is not very likely to happen.
Likelihood of PaymentsBeing Stopped if the Debt Ceiling Isn’t Raised
Now 6/2011Very likely 27% 19%Somewhat likely 27 36Not very likely 44 38But not all Americans are convinced that the impact of not raising the debt ceiling would be asdire as the Obama administration is portraying it. Some are skeptical: 36% think theadministration is making things sound worse than they would be if the debt ceiling is not raised.But slightly more, 40%, thinks the administration is describing the impact of not raising the debtceiling accurately, and another 14% think the administration is making things sound better thanthey would be. There are partisan differences.
When the Obama Administration TalksAbout the Debt Ceiling, Is It …?
Total Reps Dems IndsMaking things sound worse 36% 51% 20% 40%Describing things accurately 40 21 59 35Making things sound better 14 19 13 11
The Negotiations
Americans place more of the blame for the budget standoff on Republicans in Congress ratherthan the President. 49% blame the Republicans, while 29% blame President Obama. 13% sayboth are to blame.Views were similar during the budget standoffs in 1995 and 1996. Then, more Americans foundthe Republicans in Congress to be at fault than President Bill Clinton.
Blame for the Budget Standoff?
Republicans in Congress 49%Barack Obama 29Both (vol.) 13
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