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 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLLFor release: Tuesday, October 25, 20117:00 am (ET)The Race for the Republican Nomination
October 19-24, 2011Herman Cain and Mitt Romney continue to the lead the pack of Republican candidates for theparty’s nomination, with the edge going to Cain in this poll. These two candidates were tied forthe lead earlier this month. Interviews for this poll were conducted after last Tuesday’s debate.Rick Perry - who led the field a month ago - has now slipped to fifth place, just behind NewtGingrich and Ron Paul. Only 6% of Republican primary voters would like to see Perry as theRepublican nominee – just a quarter of the support he received in September.Cain, however, has vaulted to the top. A month ago, only 5% of Republican primary voterssupported him; that number has risen to 25% today. Romney’s support has risen 5 points sinceSeptember.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Now 10/3/2011 9/16/2011Herman Cain 25% 17% 5%Mitt Romney 21 17 16Newt Gingrich 10 8 7Ron Paul 8 7 5Rick Perry 6 12 23Michele Bachmann 2 4 7Rick Santorum 1 3 1Jon Huntsman 1 2 1Undecided/Don’t know 14 18 22Cain’s rise is largely due to Tea Party supporters within the Republican primary electorate. 32%of that group backs him now, more than four times the number that supported him in September.Romney’s support among Tea Partiers is similar to what it was earlier this month, and up 6 pointsfrom September, while Perry’s support has declined. Just 7% of Tea party supporters back Perrynow, compared to 30% in September.Cain leads among self-identified conservatives, while he and Romney are virtually tied amongmoderates.
Tea Party Supporters: 2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters who support the Tea Party)Now 10/3/2011 9/16/2011Herman Cain 32% 24% 7%Mitt Romney 18 17 12Newt Gingrich 15 13 8Ron Paul 9 2 6Rick Perry 7 12 30Michele Bachmann 2 4 8Jon Huntsman 1 1 0Rick Santorum 1 1 1Undecided/Don’t know 8 16 18
 
However, the race remains fluid: Just 19% of Republican primary voters with a candidate choicesay their minds are made up, while 80% say it’s too early to say for sure who they support for thenomination. This is similar to the state of the race in late 2007.
Mind Made Up Whom to Support?
(among Republican Primary Voters with a Choice)Now 10/3/2011 12/2007Yes 19% 19% 23%Too early 80 76 76They may want President Obama to be a one-term president but Republican primary voters haveyet to find an alternative that a majority enthusiastically supports. At this early stage in thecampaign, Republican primary voters are not especially enthusiastic about Herman Cain, MittRomney or Rick Perry as potential nominees for president, but there is more enthusiasm for Cainthan for Romney and Perry.32% of Republican primary voters say they would enthusiastically back Cain if he became theparty’s nominee, while 30% would have reservations about him. 13% would support Cain onlybecause he was the Republican party’s nominee, while a similar percentage would not supporthim at all.Fewer Republican voters would enthusiastically support Romney (18%) or Perry (14%), far moresay they would have reservations about each of them. One in five Republican primary voters saysthey would support Romney or Perry only because they were the party’s nominee. 14% would notsupport Romney if he were the nominee, while 19% say that about Perry.If …. Were the Republican Nominee Would you …?(among Republican primary voters)Cain Romney PerryEnthusiastically support him 32% 18% 14%Support him with reservations 30 42 40Support him only because he is the nominee 13 19 18Not support him 14 14 19Americans are getting interested in the 2012 race for president. 70% of registered votersnationwide are paying at least some attention to the 2012 election campaign, including 31% whoare paying a lot of attention. Majorities of both parties are tuning in, but 78% of Republicans arepaying attention, compared to 68% of Democrats.
Attention to the 2012 Campaign
(among registered voters)All Reps Dems IndsA lot 31% 34% 35% 24%Some 39 44 33 41Not much 21 12 25 24None 10 10 8 10
 ______________________________________________________________________________________________ This poll was conducted by telephone from October 19-24, 2011 among 1,650 adults nationwide. 1,475 interviews wereconducted with registered voters and 455 with voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. Phonenumbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for resultsbased on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage points. The margin of error for the sample ofregistered voters could be plus or minus three points and five points for the sample of Republican primary voters. Theerror for subgroups may be higher. An oversample was conducted for this survey which will be analyzed in a future pollrelease. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
 
CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLLThe Race for the Republican NominationOctober 19-24, 2011
q26 How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 presidential campaign -- alot, some, not much, or no attention so far?** REGISTERED VOTERS ***** Party ID ***Total Rep Dem Ind Sep11b% % % % %A lot 31 34 35 24 32Some 39 44 33 41 38Not much 21 12 25 24 22None 10 10 8 10 8DK/NA 0 0 0 1 0q27 Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate forPresident in 2012 - Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, RonPaul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, or would you like to see someone elsenominated?** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ** Sep11b*Herman Cain 25 17Mitt Romney 21 17Newt Gingrich 10 8Ron Paul 8 7Rick Perry 6 12Michele Bachmann 2 4Jon Huntsman 1 2Rick Santorum 1 3Someone else 12 10Undecided (Vol.) 11 8No one na 2DK/NA 3 10q28 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure?* REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE CHOICE *Cain RomneyTotal Supporters Supporters Sep11bMind made up 19 18 23 19Still too early 80 82 76 76DK/NA 1 0 1 5q29 If Mitt Romney became the Republican nominee for President next year, would you: 1.Enthusiastically support him, or 2. Support him but with reservations, or 3. Support himONLY because he is the Republican party nominee, or 4. Not support him?** REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS **Enthusiastically support 18Support with reservations 42Support only because he is the nominee 19Not support him 14DK/NA 7
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