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Cbsnewspoll Gop 111111

Cbsnewspoll Gop 111111

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Published by cbsnews
CBS News poll on the GOP race, Nov. 11, 2011
CBS News poll on the GOP race, Nov. 11, 2011

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Published by: cbsnews on Nov 12, 2011
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11/12/2011

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CBS NEWS POLL
 
For Release: Friday, November 11, 20116:30 pm (ET)
The 2012 Republican Nomination: Now a Close Three-Way Race
November 6-10, 2011
In the Republican race for the presidential nomination, Newt Gingrich’s supportcontinues to slowly grow, and he is now tied with Mitt Romney for second place, whileHerman Cain just edges both of them out for the top spot. Both Cain and Romney havelost support since late October.
61% of Republican primary voters say the sexual harassment accusations against Cainwon’t make any difference in their vote, but 30% say the charges make them less likelyto back him, and that rises to 38% among women.
Romney is seen as most ready to be Commander-in-Chief. Newt Gingrich is seen asbest able to handle an international crisis.
But the race could still change; seven in 10 Republican primary voters say it is still tooearly to say for sure which candidate they will support.The field of Republican candidates now has three candidates within striking distance of eachother at the top of the list: with 18%, Herman Cain is in the top spot, followed by Mitt Romneyand Newt Gingrich with 15% each. Support for both Cain and Romney has declined since latelast month, and Gingrich is the only one of the top three whose support is steadily – if slowly – on the upswing.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Now 10/25/2011 10/3/2011 9/16/2011Herman Cain 18% 25% 17% 5%Mitt Romney 15 21 17 16Newt Gingrich 15 10 8 7Rick Perry 8 6 12 23Ron Paul 5 8 7 5Michele Bachmann 4 2 4 7Rick Santorum 2 1 3 1Jon Huntsman 1 1 2 1Someone else 14 12 10 11Undecided/Don’t know 17 14 18 22Cain has lost support among women since late October. Then, he led among women,garnering 28% of their support. Now, his support among women is just 15%. He has also lostground with conservatives, from 30% to 23% now. And there has been some movement among
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Tea Party supporters as well; their support for Cain has declined from 32% to 19%. Romneyhas lost support among men, while Gingrich’s support among that group has increased 8 points.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(Among Republican Primary voters)----- Now ---- ----- 10/25/2011 -----Cain Romney Gingrich Cain Romney GingrichTea Party 19% 11 21 32% 18 15Non-Tea Party 18% 21 8 17% 26 5Men 21% 15 19 22% 23 11Women 15% 16 10 28% 19 9Conservatives 23% 14 16 30% 18 12Moderates 9% 21 16 22% 21 8
Impact of the Allegations against Herman Cain
Six in 10 Republican primary voters say the charges of sexual harassment against Herman Cainmake no difference to their vote. Still, 30% say the charges make them less likely to supportCain. 71% of self-identified Tea Party supporters say the allegations make no difference, as do67% of conservatives. This poll was being conducted as new, and more specific, allegationsarose against Cain.
Do the Allegations Against Cain Make You…?
(Among Republican Primary Voters)Total Tea Party Supporters WomenMore likely to vote for him 4% 4% 1%No difference 61 71 57Less likely to vote for him 30 21 38Among women, 38% say they are less likely to support Cain because of the allegations againsthim. 57% say that will make no difference in their vote. Just 23% of men say they are lesslikely to vote for Cain because of the harassment allegations.Voters overall are following this story: most have heard something about the harassmentallegations, including 59% of Republican primary voters who have heard a lot.
How Much Have You Heard About theSexual Harrassment Allegations Against Cain?
All Voters Republican Primary VotersA lot 47% 59%Some 26 25Not much/nothing 27 17Among Republican voters who have heard or read a lot about it, a majority still says theallegations won’t impact their vote.
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Electability and Candidate Characteristics
Romney, by a wide margin, is still seen as the most electable of the group. Rick Perry’s declineon this measure is notable, from 21% in September to 6% now.
Which Candidate is Most Likely to Beat Obama?
(Among Republican Primary Voters)Now 9/2011Mitt Romney 40% 32%Herman Cain 20 8Newt Gingrich 6 2Rick Perry 6 21Michele Bachmann 4 3Ron Paul 2 2Rick Santorum 2 2Jon Huntsman 1 1Don’t know 13 16But electability is not the top criteria for picking a nominee: 58% say it’s more important to havea nominee that agrees with them on the issues than one who can beat President Obama nextyear (39%). Back in September, Republican voters were more evenly divided on this question.
More Important that Republican Nominee…
(among Republican primary voters)Now 9/2011Agrees with me on the issues 58% 48%Can beat Obama in 2012 39 48That view helps Cain somewhat: Cain leads Romney and Gingrich among Republican voterswho think it’s more important that a candidate shares their issue positions. Romney leadsamong those who say electability is more important.By 40% to 14%, Republican primary voters prefer a nominee who’s mostly been in the businessor private sector, instead of having a mostly political background. Four in ten say it doesn’tmatter.
Republican Nominee’s Experience Should be Mostly…
(among Republican primary voters)Now 9/2011In politics and government 14% 14%In business or private sector 40 48Doesn’t matter 41 35
Becoming Commander-in-Chief
Mitt Romney is also the top choice as most qualified to be commander-in-chief (26%), followedby Gingrich (21%) and Cain (11%). Gingrich is most trusted to handle an international crisis.
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