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 CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLLFor release: Tuesday, February 14, 20126:30 pm (ET)The Republican Race: Santorum Has the Edge; Romney Still Seen as Most Electable
February 8-13, 2012
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Nationally, Rick Santorum has pulled just ahead of Mitt Romney in Republican primaryvoters’ preference for the Republican presidential nomination. Ron Paul is now in third,followed by Newt Gingrich. At 3 points, Santorum’s lead is within the poll’s margin oferror.
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Voters’ search for values and moral character have helped to propel Santorum to thehead of the pack. When asked which candidate best represents their values, Santorumleads. But Romney continues to be viewed as the candidate best able to defeatPresident Obama.
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Republican voters have confidence in both Santorum and Romney to manage theeconomy.After wins in three contests last week, 30% of Republican primary voters now support Santorumfor the nomination. He received the backing of just 16% in a slightly different question lastmonth, and was in third place behind Gingrich.Romney, who won the Maine caucuses on Saturday, has held fairly steady since January, whileGingrich’s support has fallen by 11 points. He is now in fourth place behind Paul.
2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Now 1/2012Rick Santorum 30% 16%Mitt Romney 27 28Ron Paul 12 15Newt Gingrich 10 21Santorum receives strong backing from conservatives, Tea Partiers and white evangelicals.Self-identified conservatives divided their support among the candidates in January, but in thispoll they are solidly behind Santorum. He receives far more support from this group thanRomney does, and conservative support for Santorum has increased since last month.Support for Gingrich among conservatives is now half of what it was in January, just before hisvictory in the South Carolina primary.Romney leads among moderates and Republican primary voters who do not support the TeaParty.
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2012 Republican Nomination for President
(among Republican primary voters)Santorum Romney Paul GingrichConservatives 38% 24 5 12Moderates 19% 30 23 7Tea party 36% 24 12 14Non-Tea party 22% 28 15 8W. Evangelicals 39% 23 10 11Still, 60% of Republican primary voters say they could change their minds about whom tosupport – and so the race remains fluid.
Mind Made Up Whom to Support?
(among Republican primary voters with a choice)Yes 39%Too early 60Most Republican primary voters remain unsatisfied with the current field. 62% wish there weremore candidate choices.
Satisfied with Republican Candidates for President
(among Republican primary voters)Now 1/2012Yes, satisfied 34% 30%No, want more choices 62 68Also, more than half of Republican voters who pick a candidate have reservations about theircandidate choice.
Candidate Qualities
Mitt Romney continues to be viewed as the candidate who has the best chance to beatPresident Obama in the fall, but Rick Santorum is seen as the candidate who best representsthe values of Republican voters.Santorum also leads as the candidate who would do the most to help the middle class.
Candidate Qualities
(among Republican primary voters)Beat Represents Most to helpObama Values Middle ClassRick Santorum 14% 39% 32%Mitt Romney 55 23 19Newt Gingrich 15 7 18Ron Paul 3 16 18Each of the Republican candidates is portraying himself as a stark contrast to Barack Obama,but just 36% of Republican primary voters think Mitt Romney’s policies would be very different
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from President Obama’s. Six in ten Republican voters say Santorum and Paul’s policies wouldbe very different than the President’s. 55% say that about Gingrich.
Candidate’s Policies Different than Obama’s?
(among Republican primary voters)Very Somewhat Not VeryDifferent Different DifferentPaul 61% 27 4Santorum 59% 30 4Gingrich 55% 26 14Romney 36% 48 14Moreover, while a majority of primary voters think Mitt Romney’s ideological views on the issuesare about right, 32% say they are not conservative enough, the largest percentage among anyof the four Republican candidates. Republican primary voters are most likely to think RickSantorum’s views on the issues are about right – 68% say that’s the case.
His Views on Most Issues are…
(among Republican primary voters)Too Not conservativeconservative enough About rightRick Santorum 14% 7 68Newt Gingrich 17% 21 55Mitt Romney 10% 32 52Ron Paul 18% 22 46The economy and jobs are the issues Republican primary voters want to hear the candidatesdiscuss, and most are very or somewhat confident in the ability of Mitt Romney (73%) or RickSantorum (74%) to manage the economy. 66% are confident in Newt Gingrich, and 59% haveconfidence in Ron Paul.
Confidence in His Ability to Manage Economy
(among Republican primary voters)Very ` Somewhat Not too/not at allRick Santorum 27% 47 20Mitt Romney 25% 48 24Newt Gingrich 24% 42 31Ron Paul 17% 42 33Republican primary voters nationwide say strong moral character is the top quality (from a list offour) in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination, followed by a true conservative,having the right experience, and someone who can defeat President Obama,Voters looking for strong moral character and a true conservative back Santorum, while thosewho value experience are more likely to support Romney. The race is close among those whosay electability is most important.
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