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WannaLoseEverything?Followa100%“Certain”ForecastFromaGuyWho’sBeenWrong100%oftheTime
AnyonedoubtingthatthepowersthatbearegettingdesperatetomaintainstockpricesshouldconsiderthatannouncementsofBailoutBenBernkanke’sappearanceon60MinutesandhisproposedclaimthathemayincreaseQE2wasenoughtokickoffa3+%rampjobinstockslastweek.Regardlessofthismindlessness,Bernanke’sappearancedidofferusaglimpseintohisthinkingorlackthereof.Manycommentatorshavebeenstunnedbyhisassertionthatheis“100%certain”hecancontrolinflation.Iwasn’t.Afterall,Bernanke’sbeennothingifnot100%certainofhimselfwhilebeing100%wrongforthelastfiveyears.Whybreakthestreak?Foranyonewhostilltakesthismanseriously,Istronglysuggestwatchingthebelowvideochroniclinghisforecastsfrom2005onward.Ifitweren’tforthefactthathispredecessorattheFed,AlanGreenspan,wasalsowrongabouteverything,thefollowingwouldmakeyouwanttorunfacefirstintoawall.ThemostimportantitemIwanttofocusonisthefactthatBernankedidn’tseethe2008Crisiscoming,becauseitgivesusanexcellentunderstandingofhowoutoftouchBernankeis(orpretendstobe)whenitcomestosystemicriskinthemarkets.Inthiscontext,hisassertionthatheis“100%certain”hecancontrolinflationshouldbeaclearwarningtoinvestorsthatinflationiscominginaBIGwayinthefuture.Bernankehasbeenflatout100%WRONGoneverything,particularlyhisownabilities,overthelastfiveyears.Sobepreparedtoseeinflationexplodesoon.Infactitalreadyhas.
 
BothOilandGoldhaveroughlydoubledinpriceperDollarssinceFedfirststartedbuyingTreasuriesinMarch2009:Similarly,agriculturalcommoditiesareupsome53%sincetheFedannouncedQE1.
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