Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Alex Tajirian
6-2
1. OBJECTIVE
# Derive a valuation (pricing) equation based on cash flow (amount, timing, & risk). Time Value of Money analysis involves: ! ! What is $1 worth 10 years from today (Future Value)? What is $1 to be received in 10 years worth today (Present Value)?
Applications ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Loan amortization stated vs. effective interest charged rebate vs. low financing pricing of bonds (Chapter 7) pricing of stocks/firms (Chapter 7) What is the value of a particular division within a firm? How much value does a new project contribute to a firm?
In this chapter we assume the following are given: ! cash flow: amount, timing, and risk as reflected in k
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-3
2. TYPES OF VALUATION
Based on investors' preferences and attitudes towards consumption and risk. ! Demand & Supply analysis
Thus, given the CFs and how good the promise is, its risk, everyone would agree on the value (price) of the income stream.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-4
Put $100 (CF) in a bank for one year at interest (i) = 10% What is value of $100 one year from today; (FV1) ?
Future Value of a CF 1 period from today principal % interest payment principal % (interest rate) (principal) $100 % (.1)($100) $100 (1 % .1) ' $110
(1)
where, subscript 1 denotes # of periods in the future Thus, the CF is compounded at rate "i".
What is value of $100 two years from today; (FV2)? FV2 ' [FV1](1% i) ' [100(1% i)](1% i) ' 100(1% i)2 ' 100(1% i)2 ' 100(1.1)2 ' 100(1.21) ' $121
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-5
In general for a single CF, FVn ' CF (1% i)n ' CF [FVIFi, n] where, i
/
(2)
re-investment rate, return on investment, cost of borrowing, opportunity cost, compounding rate, interest rate
n (1+i)n
How to calculate FVIF? ! ! Use calculator use table For i ' 10%, n ' 2, Y FVIF10, 2 ' 1.2100
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-6
FV of $1
# of periods
Notes: (a) If interest rate "i" = 0, then FV of a CF is constant irrespective of how far in the future you would be receiving it. sThe horizontal line above represents this. Given "i", the greater the "n", # of periods in the future, the greater the FV. Thus, FV and "n" are positively related. Given "n", the higher the "i" the higher the FV. Thus, FV and "i" are positively related. i.e., they move in the same direction.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
(b)
(c)
6-7
You are promised $100 one year from today What is value of $100 today?; PV=? ! ! It better be < 100; time value of money from (2) FV1 = CF0 (1 + i) Y CF0 ' FV1 (1 % i) (3)
but CF0 = PV (value today) and FV1 = CF1 in future substitute in (3),
Y PV '
CF1 1% i
'
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-8
You are promised $100 two years from today. PV = ? FV2 ' CF0(1% i)2 ' PV(1% i)2 Y PV ' FV2 (1% i)2 ' CF2 (1% i)2 ' 100 (1.1)2 < 100 < 100 1.1
In general for a single CF, PV ' CFn (1 % i) n ' CF n 1 (1 % i)n ' CF n [ PVIFi,n ]
where, i PVIFi, n
/ discount rate / PV of Interest Factor which depends on i, n.
/
discount factor
6-9
PV of $1 $1 i = 0%
i = 10%
i > 10%
# of periods
Notes: (a) If i = 0, then PV of a CF, say CF = $1, is constant at $1, irrespective of how far in the future it is received. For a given "n", the higher the "i", the lower is PV.
(b)
(c)
For a given "i", the larger the "n", the smaller the PV.
PV and "i" are inversely related ] They move in opposite direction. PV and "n" are inversely related ]They move in the opposite direction
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-10
Example 1: Calculation of PV
The IRS screwed up your tax return by $100. They offer you a choice between $100 today or $102 next year. If 1-year government guaranteed loans are being offered at 4.0%, which alternative would you choose? Choose $100 today, as PV ($102) < $100. PV ' 102 < 100 (1% .04)
Example 2: Calculating PV
The IRS makes you a new offer: $100 today or $105 next year. Which would you choose?
PV '
choose $105.
Remember: you discount by a rate reflecting riskiness of CFs. Alternatively, an investment with similar risk yields 4% return.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-11
Example 3: Calculating PV
ATT owes you $100, and makes you an offer of $100 today or $105 next year. Which would you choose? Assume that return on similar risky investments is 6%. PVATT ' $105 < $100 (1 % .06)
choose $100 as
Note the discount rates in examples 2 and 3. ! The latter is higher reflecting default/bankruptcy risk. Obviously if interest on similar investment as the ATT were 4%, then you would choose $105. How to calculate "i" will be discussed in the chapter on Risk & Return: Debt. The point I am trying to make here is that bankruptcy is "bad", thus you would require a higher risk premium to accept the ATT deal, which explains the difference between the two interest rates.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-12
5 ANNUITY Definition:
Equal CF over a # of equal length periods, paid at end of period. 0 0 1 $100 2 $100 3 ...
periods CFs
For FV,
periods CFs 0 0 1 CF 2 CF 3 CF value = ?
For PV,
periods CFs 0 0 value = ? Note. The book defines two different types of annuities: at the beginning and at the end. I think it is just more confusing than it should be. My approach is easier. 1 CF 2 CF 3 ...
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-13
periods CFs
0 0
1 $100
2 $100
3 $100
100(1% .1)2 = 121 FV Thus, FV3 ' 100 % 100(1% i)1 % 100(1% i)2 ' 100[ 1 % (1% i)1 % (1% i)2] ' 100[FVIFA10%,3] ' 100[3.310]' $331 331
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-14
In general for an annuity, FVn ' Sum of Compounded Cash Flows FVn ' CF % CF (1% i) % CF (1% i)2 % ... % CF (1% i)n& 1 ' CF [ 1 % (1% i) % (1% i)2 % ... % (1% i)n& 1 ] ' CF [ FVIFAi, n ]
where, FVIFA is FVIF of an annuity # Thus, if CFs are equal, you do not need to compound each CF separately as in Illustration 1. How to calculate [...] ! ! Each term separate! (As in Illustration 1: long method) Tables for FVIFA
for CF ' $100, i' 6%, n' 2; Y FV2 ' 100[ FVIFA6%,2 ] ' 100[ 2.0600 ] ' $206
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-15
FVIFA6%,2
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-16
PV
$183.3
Thus, PV ' 100 (1% i)1 % 100 (1% i)2 ' 100 1 (1% i)1 % 1 (1% i)2
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-17
' CF [PVIFAi,n ] #
Thus, if CFs are equal you do not need to discount each CF separately as in Illustration 2. How to calculate [...]
! Each term separate ! (As in Illustration 2) ! Tables for PVIFA (PVIF of an Annuity) ! calculator or computer 1 1 & i i(1% i)n
PVIFAi,n '
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-18
PVIFA.5% , 5 '
Note:
You have to use this formula if interest rates is not an integer, as tables cannot accommodate for all possible value ranges.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-19
Solution: Step 1: This is a PV problem. You know the value of the loan today. Use PV formulation
Step 2:
i = 14%.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-20
5 QUOTED vs. EFFECTIVE RATE iNom = ( periodic rate ) x m = APR m = # of periods in a year if quarters, m=4; monthly, m=12 APR / Annual % Rate / Quoted Rate EAR / Effective Annual Rate (1 % EAR) ' 1 % iNom m 1 % i Nom m
m
'
APR 1 % m
m
EAR '
& 1
Intuitively:
Step 1:
Convert annual rates to period rates. Thus, divide annual rate by number of periods "m" in a year. Now for each year, you have "m" more periods. Thus, you have to compound "m" times, i.e. raise to power m: (. . . )m.
Step 2:
Note:
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-21
EAR '
0.08 1% 4
Thus, the more frequent the compounding, the larger the difference.
6 APPLICATIONS
Rebate vs. Low Financing Amortization Schedule
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-22
SALE!
SALE!
SALE! SALE!
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-23
Solution:
Step 1:
. This is a PV problem, as it deals with value of loans at time of decision making (today) not in the future Alternatives low financing: $10,999 loan at 5%, n = 36
Step 2:
(a)
(b)
Step 3: Step 4:
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-24
PV = CF [ PVIFA ] Total loan = payment [ PVIFA ] Y payment ' total loan [ PVIFA ]
Alternative (a) low financing; payment ' $10,999 $10,999 ' $329.65 ' PVIFA 5% ,36 33.36
12
Alternative (b) rebate; payment ' $10,499 ' $338.77 PVIFA 10% ,36
12
Low Financing
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-25
$10,000 loan, 10%, 5 years, annual payments Year 1 2 3 4 5 Totals (a) total payment ' Beginning Balance $10,000.00 8,362.03 6,560.25 4,578.30 2,398.16 Total Payment(a) $2,637.97 2,637.97 2,637.97 2,637.97 2,637.97 $13,189.87 Interest Paid(b) $1,000.00 836.20 656.03 457.83 239.82 $3,189.87 Principal Paid(c) $1,637.97 1,801.77 1,981.95 2,180.14 2,398.16 $10,000.00 Ending Balance(d) $8,362.02 6,560.25 4,578.30 2,398.16 0.00
loan 10,000 ' $2,637.97 ' PVIFA10% ,5 3.7908 (b) interest paid ' (Balance)(interest rate) ' (10,000)(.1) ' (c) principal ' total payment & interest (d) ending balance ' Beginning Balance & Principal paid
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-26
1 T
Value depends on ! Amount of CF ! Timing of CF ! Risk of CF
SUMMARY
T
FVn ' Sum of Compounded Cash Flows FVn ' CF % CF (1% i) % CF (1% i)2 % ... % CF (1% i)n& 1 ' CF [ 1 % (1% i) % (1% i)2 % ... % (1% i)n& 1 ] ' CF [ FVIFAi, n ]
i/
re-investment rate, discount rate, compounding rate, interest rate, return on investment, cost of borrowing, cost of financing, opportunity cost.
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-27
T PV '
' Sum of discounted CFs ' CF 1 1 1 % % ...% (1% i) (1% i)2 (1% i)n
' CF [PVIFAi,n ]
T EAR '
1 %
i Nom m
& 1 '
APR 1 % m
& 1
morevalue.com, 1997
Alex Tajirian
6-28
2
A. Agree/Disagree-Explain
QUESTIONS
1.
The more the frequency of compounding, the larger the difference between stated and effective interest rates. If you win a $4 m. State of California lottery, it would necessarily have the same value as winning $4 m. NY State lottery, assuming that the payments are identical. "i" is referred to as the discount factor. There is no advantage in distinguishing between annuities and non-annuity CFs. "Congratulations! You have already won the California lottery." If inflation increases, then the lottery's payoff would be worth less.
2.
3. 4. 5.
B. Numerical
1. Your 69-year old aunt has savings of $35,000. She has made arrangements to enter a home for the aged on reaching the age of 80. Your aunt wants to decrease her savings by a constant amount each year for ten years, with a zero balance remaining. How much can she withdraw each year if she earns 6% annually on her savings? Her first withdrawal would be one year from today. Someone you know is about to retire. His firm has given him the option of retiring with a lump sum of $20,000 or an annuity of $2,500 for ten years. Which is worth more now, if an interest rate of 7% is utilized for the annuity? Do not consider taxes. A firm's earnings are $5,000 and are growing at 10% a year. Approximately how many years will it take for earnings to triple? You are considering the purchase of a $50,000 machine, which is expected to generate $11,511.19 annually for 8 years. What is the expected return on the investment? A machine costs $50,000 and is expected to yield a 16% annual rate of return on your investment, for 8 years. What is the annual income from the machine? Your banker tells you that a $85,000 loan, for 30 years, has an annual payment of $8,273.59.
Alex Tajirian
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money What must be the interest rate on the loan? 7.
6-29
The current balance on your loan is $12,000. It has an interest of 9%, and an annual payment of $1,500. How long would it lake you to payoff the entire loan? After two years, your $100 investment is now worth $121. (a) What is the total realized return on your investment? (b) What is the annual return on your investment? What is the PVIFA for i = .5% and n = 3? If the average monthly return on Widget Inc. is 5%, what is its effective annual rate? You put $100 in a bank today and expect to contribute an additional $100 after 1, 2, and 3 years. What is the FV of your investment after 3 years if the interest rate is 3%? A bank had issued a $10,000 loan a year ago at 10% interest for 5 years with annual payments of $2,636.97. Suppose the current interest rate on a similar loan is 12%. If the bank were to sell this loan to another financial institution, how much would it be worth? You want to take a $5,000 vacation to Europe. You can only afford to put $1,160.06 annually in the bank. If the bank pays you 5% interest annually, how long would it be before you can take the trip? You plan to take a $5,000 trip to Europe in 2 years. If banks pay 5% interest compounded annually, and you want to make equal monthly contributions, how much should you put in the bank annually?
8.
9. 10. 11.
12.
13.
14.
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
6-30
3.
4.
5.
B. Numerical 1. Step 1:
It is a PV problem. You are given value of a loan today, and asked to find the amount of payments. Use PV formulation to calculate payment.
Step 2:
PV ' CF [PVIFAk,n] Y CF ' Payment ' PV of loan 35,000 ' $4,755.37 ' PVIFA6%,10 7.3601
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
6-31 It is a PV problem. You are given the value of a lump-sum today, and asked to compare it to another CF. If you calculate the PV of the CFs, you end with PVs that you need to compare. If you thought about it in terms of FV, then you would have realized that more information was required than provided by the question. Thus, it must be a PV problem. Calculate PV of CFs.
Step 2:
PV ' $2,500[PVIFA7%,10] ' 2,5007.0236 ' $17,559 but $17,559 < $20,000 accept LUMP SUM
3.
It is a FV problem. You want to know how long it takes to reach 3 times the current value.
Triple Y compounding factor ' (1% k)n ' FVIFi,n ' 3 From FV Table, for k' 10%, find n' ? In table you get 2.8531 for 11 years and 3.1384 for 12. approximately 11.5 years.
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money For those who desire Swiss precision: FV ' CF(1% k)t Y 15,000 ' 5,000(1% .1)t Y 3 ' (1.1)t Y log 3 ' t log(1.1) Yt ' log(3) 1.098 ' ' 11.55years log(1.1) .0953
6-32
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money 4. Given: PV of new machine = $50,000, Expected to generate annuity CF = $11,511.19 for 8 years. What is expected rate of return on investment? i = ?
6-33
Solution: Step 1: Step 2: Step 3: PV problem, you are given the value of a machine today. Realize that i= interest rate = return on investment Calculate i.
5.
CF '
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money 6. Given: $85,000 loan, 30 years, annual payments = $8,273.59 What is the interest rate on the loan? i =? Solution:
6-34
7.
Given: $12,000 loan, i = 9%, annual payment = $1,500 What is length of loan? n =?
Solution:
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money 8. Your $100 investment is now worth $121, after two years. (a) What is the total realized return on your investment? (b) What is the annual return on your investment?
6-35
(a)from Chapter 2 realized return ' p1 & p0 p0 ' 121 & 100 ' 21% 100
(b) Solution 1: based on DCF (1% total return) ' (1% k)(1% k)' (1% k)2 Y (1% .21) ' (1% k)2 Y (1% k) ' Yk ' 1.21
Solution 2: based on definition of FV FV ' CF(1% k)2 ' CF(FVIF?,2) Y FVIF?,2 ' 121 ' 1.21 100
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money 9. 10. See example p. 18. Similar to an EAR problem.
6-36
annual rate 12 ) 12 ' (1 % monthly rate)12 Y effective annual rate ' (1 % monthly rate)12 & 1 ' (1 % .05)12 & 1
11.
Remember that FVIFA assumes 0 CFs at time 0 (see Section 4.0). Thus, you need to add the FV of CF0. Thus, FV3 = 100(FVIF3%,3) + 100(FVIFA3%,3)
12.
Note 1.
(a) Distinguish between market value of loan and book value. (b) A bank might be interested in obtaining cash immediately, and thus wants to sell the loan (i.e. the promised CFs) for immediate cash.
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997
Time Value of Money 13. FV ' CF(FVIFA) 5,000 ' 1,160.06(FVIFA5,?) Y FVIFA ' 5,000 ' 4.3101 1,160.06
6-37
14. FV ' CF(FVIFA5%,2) Y CF ' FV $5,000 ' ' $2,439. FVIFA5%,2 2.05
Alex Tajirian
morevalue.com, 1997