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7.2012-Purple-Poll(1)

7.2012-Purple-Poll(1)

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Published by: The Hill Newspaper on Jul 16, 2012
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In 2012, a dozen states will decide whether President Obamais elected to a second term. The PurplePoll focuses exclusively on thePurple Electorate - likely voters only in these swing states. Updatedregularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll offers a uniquelens through which you can gather original insight into this critical election.The PurplePoll has built a reputation for accurate, unbiased andcutting-edge polling and analysis. It has been cited on television, in print,and online by sources that span the political spectrum, including:
MSNBC,Fox News, ABC News, the Wall Street Journal, Talking Points Memo, Slate,Politico,
the
National Review 
and dozens of others. And we will continue tobring you this analysis through the November election, and beyond.For more information,contact Doug Usher, Ph.D. [
@
]or Bruce Haynes[
@
@
 
2
@
Obama Job
Approve:
46%
 Disapprove:
49%
 Not sure:
4%
Direction of the Economy
Getting Better:
28%
 Getting Worse:
42%
Staying about the same:
29%
Not sure:
1%
Obama vs. Romney
Obama:
47%
 Romney:
45%
Not sure:
8%
Last heard something new about Obama
In the last several days:
43%
In the last week:
17%
A few weeks ago:
12%
Over a month ago:
15%
Not sure:
13%
Last heard something new about Romney
In the last several days:
43%
In the last week:
19%
A few weeks ago:
16%
Over a month ago:
10%
Not sure:
12%
Closer to your view:
Obama is unable improve the economy:
46%
Romney couldn’t do a better job improvingthe economy:
45%
Not sure:
9%
Closer to your view:
Obama is a failure as president:
44%
Romney is too out of touch to be president:
44%
Not sure:
12%
Hearing something new about Obamamade you…
More favorable:
33%
Less favorable:
40%
No impact:
25%
Not sure:
1%
Hearing something new about Romneymade you…
More favorable:
26%
Less favorable:
38%
No impact:
34%
Not sure:
2%
Romney Favorability
Favorable:
41%
Unfavorable:
49%
Not sure:
10%
OVERALL:
PURPLE
OVERALL
WHAT IS THEPURPLEPOLL?
Unlike other polls, the PurplePoll focuses exclusively on the 12 states that are most likely to determine whetherPresident Obama will win re-election: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico,North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.These states were won by President Obama en route to his 365 electoral votes. Since 1996, nine of these stateshave swung between the Republican and Democratic candidates. Three states (MN, PA, and WI) have beendecided by 3 points or less at least once since 2000. The voters in these states have held the presidential electionbalance for the past dozen years, and will continue to do so in 2012.Updated regularly throughout the 2012 election cycle, the PurplePoll will follow leading political indicators andtrack new issues as they emerge. It will offer a unique lens to gather original insight into this critical election.In addition to data from the overall Purple electorate, we divide the data into regional state clusters: “The WildWest” (CO, NV, NM), “The Heartland” (IA, MN, WI), “The Rust Belt” (NH, OH, PA) and “The Southern Swing”(NC, VA, FL). These groupings help provide more texture to our results. We also include statewide results forColorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.The PurplePoll is fielded and analyzed by Purple Insights, the research division of Purple Strategies, thebipartisan public affairs firm.Fielded 7/9-7/13, using automated telephone interviews and RDD sample. Total weighted N size=2412 likelyvoters, margin of error +/-1.6. Each regional and state-level sample has margins of error of +/-4.0. Samplesize for OH, FL, VA and CO is 600 per state.
ABOUT PURPLE STRATEGIES
Purple is a fully integrated, bipartisan team that excels at merging red and blue perspectives to find effectivestrategic solutions. We look to build a consensus that will support a public affairs initiative, influence a debateor stimulate change. Our team includes experts in opinion research, strategic communications, grassroots,government affairs, digital communications and creative.Recognizing the need for a balanced, bipartisan approach to corporate communications and issue advocacy, AlexCastellanos and Steve McMahon merged two well-established Republican and Democratic firms – National Mediaand Issue & Image – to create Purple Strategies. By joining forces, Purple brings together strategists andcommunication specialists from across the political spectrum, including veteran political strategists BruceHaynes, Mark Squier, Rob Collins and Jim Jordan.For more:
 
3
Obama maintains a steady lead in Purple States, butcontinues to fall short of a majority. Voters’ viewsabout the economy are the strongest predictors oftheir vote choice – even more so than partisanship.
In our latest poll, we see no shift in President Obama’sperformance against Mitt Romney. Today, Obama leadsRomney 47% to 45% across the Purple States, thesame 2-point lead as in June (48% to 46%).The race is also steady among independents acrossthese states. Romney retains a 5-point lead amongthis key swing constituency (47% to 42%), essentiallyunchanged from his 6-point lead in June. The gendergap also continues: Romney leads by 8 points amongmen (50% to 42%), while Obama leads by 11 amongwomen (52% to 41%).Voters’ concerns about the economy continue to loomlarge, and their outlook is becoming gloomier. Just28% of voters believe that the economy is getting better,a decline of 8 points from April. Forty-two percent(42%) believe that the economy is getting worse, up 7points from April.
@
PURPLE
ANALYSIS
The impact of voters’ perception of the economy ontheir presidential choice is dramatic. Among thosewho believe the economy is getting better, 93% supportObama, 4% favor Romney. And among those who sayit is getting worse, Romney leads Obama 84% to 7%.Indeed, this question is now more predictive of votechoice than any other question we ask – includingpartisanship.
Purple Predictor States: Ohio swings back to Obama,Romney leads in Florida, and Colorado and Virginiaremain as tight as can be.
Ohio has moved from one side to the other and backin our recent polling. In April, we showed PresidentObama with a 5-point lead. Last month, Mitt Romneyheld a 3-point lead. And today, we show PresidentObama taking a 3-point lead in this critical state (48%to 45%). This edge is fueled by independents, amongwhom he leads by 7 points (47% to 40%), as well aswomen (52% to 40%).Importantly, Romney’s favorability level is low in Ohio –37% have a favorable view, while a majority (50%) has anunfavorable view. President Obama’s job performance isalso underwater there (46% positive/49% negative),but not to the same extent as Romney’s personal image.Mitt Romney maintains a small but steady advantage inFlorida, currently holding a 3-point lead over PresidentObama. He leads by a substantial margin amongindependents (51% to 41%). In all four Purple Stateswe have singled out, a gender gap exists, showingup most strongly in Ohio. Not surprisingly, Obamacomes out on top in Ohio and Virginia where his marginamong women is higher than his deficit among men(it is even in Colorado), and Romney enjoys a robustadvantage among male voters in Florida for the timebeing (54% to 37%).Virginia – considered critical to both the Romney andObama campaign – tilts slightly toward Obama at thisstage (46% to 44%). Obama also has the slightestedge in Colorado (45% to 44%). Importantly, independentvoters in both states lean toward Romney by 6 points.Clearly, these Purple Predictor States remain up for grabs.
The content of negative messaging from the campaignsdivides Purple State voters evenly between the candidates.
With the campaign taking a turn for the negative overthe past week, we tested which of the attacks is betterable to attract voters. We asked voters whether theyagreed more with the Romney attack that PresidentObama is a failure for his inability to create jobs orreduce the deficit, or with the Obama attack that becauseRomney outsourced American jobs while holding millionsin offshore accounts, Romney is too out of touch (seep. 11 for exact wording).

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