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ADMD

ADMD

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Published by: Reality Linda Mashiri on Jul 17, 2012
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12/27/2012

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MGM/lm/as-1/Feb’00
DISTRIBUTION STANDARD
REFERENCEREV
SCSASABO9 0
TITLE:
DISTRIBUTION STANDARD PART 1:
DATE:
DATE 2000PLANNING GUIDELINES SECTION 23:
PAGE
1
OF
16BOOK – ELECTRIFICATION LOAD
REVISION DATE:
FORECASTINGDATE 2003
TESCOD APPROVED
COMPILED BYFUNCTIONAL RESP.APPROVED BYAUTHORIZED BY............................
I A Ferguson
..............................
H J GeldenhuysTDM
.............................
P Crowdyfor TESCOD
.............................
M N BaileyDTM for ED (D)
Contents
Page
1
Introduction............................................................................................................................... 3
2
Domestic load...........................................................................................................................3
2.1
The nature of domestic load.............................................................................................3
2.2
The After Diversity Demand (ADD) ..................................................................................4
2.3
Peak load and ADMD.......................................................................................................5
2.4
The Beta distribution ........................................................................................................8
2.5
Consumption classification and load denisties ................................................................12
3
Load forecasting – ADMD estimation.......................................................................................13
3.1
Measurment......................................................................................................................13
3.2
Energy load factor method ...............................................................................................14
3.3
Heman-Beta method.........................................................................................................14
4
Load forecasting long range..................................................................................................14
4.1
Background.......................................................................................................................14
4.2
Forecasting techniques ....................................................................................................15
Figures and TablesFigure 1:
The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project, logger UA1-14, Umgaga, 98/6/18....................................................................................................................3
Figure 2:
ADD profile vs. single consumer profile. NRS LR Project, Umgaga, 98/6/18...............4
 
PART 1: PLANNING GUIDELINES
REFERENCEREV
SECTION 23: BOOK – ELECTRIFICATION LOADSCSASABO9
 
0FORECASTING
PAGE
2
OF
16
Figure 3:
Household demand at the peak vs. Peak household demand. Source: Walmer dunes, NRSLR Project 1997............................................................................................................................7
Figure 4:
Distirbution of wealthy consumers at time of the peak.................................................8
Figure 5:
Derivation of Parameters for Beta distribution of domestic consumer loads................9
Figure 6:
Load Growth Curves.....................................................................................................18
Table 1:
Factors affecting size of a demand peak......................................................................6
Table 2:
Recommended Herman-Beta parameters for various consumer-types.......................11
Table 3:
Consumption class........................................................................................................13
Table 4:
Domestic Load Density Classifications.........................................................................14
 
PART 1: PLANNING GUIDELINES
REFERENCEREV
SECTION 23: BOOK – ELECTRIFICATION LOADSCSASABO9
 
0FORECASTING
PAGE
3
OF
16
1 Introduction
This section describes the nature of residential domestic load and simple methods to estimate orforecast the anticipated load.Two main points are discussed, General background and Load forecasting
A) General background & Domestic load 
A general discussion regarding household load is presented, followed by a definition of ADMD and loaddensities.
B) Load Forecasting 
Load forecasting include methods to determine ADMD and long range ADMD growth
2 Domestic load
2.1 The nature of domestic load
2.1.1 The household load profile
A typical household load profile is shown below. The cycling of a thermostatically controlled device(probably a fridge in this case) is apparent during the night hours. There are three periods of activity,which are typical of domestic consumers: Morning, noon, evening, and the sleeping period.
0510150:006:0012:0018:000:00
Time of day
   H  o  u  s  e   h  o   l   d   l  o  a   d  c  u  r  r  e  n   t   [   A   ]
Figure 1: The load profile for a low-income consumer in Durban. Source: NRS LR Project,logger UA1-4, Umgaga, 98/6/18.

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