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Tips on Picking NCAA Tournament Games
First comes filling in your   brackets. Office pool success is typically decided by two types of predictions: 1) Picking teams that will go deep into the tournament; 2) Picking ahealthy amount of upsets in the early rounds. On the surface every #1 seed looks strong – that's why they are top seeds. But you're notgoing to win your pool without scoring with some surprises. Let's take a look at how #1seeds have historically done: (All stats are since 1985, the year the Big Dance became a64-team tournament. All results are straight-upwith no consideration for   point spread.)
Number of Final Four teams that were #1 seeds in a given year:
All 4: zero times3 of 4: three times2 of 4: 10 times1 of 4: eight times0 of 4: zero timesVery interesting . . . never all four, but never none – one or two 18 of the last 21 years!Considering that pickingupsetswins bracketpools, the numbers advice advancing only one #1 to the semifinals in your  bracket.Which one? Key fact to consider: Of the 84 Final Four teams in our sample, 32 failed tomeet ALL of the following conditions:+ Made tourney the prior year.+ Had a preseason AP All-American.+ Beat opponents by an average of 10+ points a game.+ Got at least 35% of scoring from their frontcourt (forwards and centers).Stunningly, of the 32 teams that failed to meet ALL the above conditions, only 5 madethe Final Four!But don't count on #1 seeds falling easily:84-0 in the first round.72 of 84 (86%) make it to the Sweet 16.58 of 84 (69%) make it to the Elite 8!Which leads to a key point – seemingly upsetworthy #8 and #9 seeds inevitably must face a #1 in the second round, severely decreasing the likelihood of advancing as far aseven the Sweet 16.
 
In the Elite 8, #1s are only 21-19 to win that next game to reach the Final Four when playing a #2 or #3 seeds. When playing any other seed lower than 3, the #1s have won 15of 18 games to reach the Final Four.
Non-#1s
#2 seeds are 80-4 in the first round; but #2 are only 16-14 in the second round vs. #10seeds.#3 seeds are 70-14 in the 1st round – but only 46% make it to the Sweet 16!#4 seeds are 67-17 in the 1st round – but only 44% make it to the Sweet 16!#13 and #14 seeds combined have won 31 first-round games, but are only 5-26 in thesecond round.At least one #12 seed has beaten a #5 in the first round every year but one since 1988.Over the last five tournaments, #5 seeds are only 11-9 vs. #12 seeds.Which leaves #10, #11, and #12 seeds as prime Cinderella candidates – when they win inthe first round, these sleepers are shockingly almost 50% (41-44) to win in the secondround and move on to the Sweet 16. Teams with automatic bids do significantly better than teams who are chosen for an at-large bid.The Elite 8 is where the big upsetsusually end. 27 times in this round big underdogs  (defined by being 4 or more seeds lower) have facedfavorites,winning only 4 of those 27 games.Seeds of 84 Final Fours teams of the last 21 years:#1: 36#2: 18#3: 11#4: 8#5: 4#6: 3#8: 3#11: 187% of Final Four teams come from the top 4 seeds!Only once has a lower than #8 made the Final Four!Of the last 21 champions, 12 were #1 seeds. Don't believe the myth that the Mid-Major conferences are closing the gap with the big boys – in the last 6 years, these conferenceshave:
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