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Scenarios Shaping India's Future

Scenarios Shaping India's Future

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Published by: KayPeaB on Jul 24, 2012
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Scenarios:ShapingIndia'sFuture
PEACOCKS
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SCENARIOS:SHAPINGINDIA'SFUTURE
Contents
1.ExecutiveSummary2Creatingthescenarios
3
ThreescenariosandthreeleveragepointstosustainablyaccelerateIndia'sprogress
4
Movingon
62.
Scenarios,TurningPoints,Directions
73.
The
iz"
PlanandScenariosforIndia
94.
An"essayinpersuasion"
125.
ForcesshapingIndia
146.
TheSystemModel
197.
ThreeForksintheRoadtotheFuture
218.
ThreescenariosofIndia'sfuture
25
Scenario
1:
MuddlingAlong
25
Scenario
2:
FallingApart
28
Scenario
3:
TheFlotillaAdvances
31
ComparisonoftheScenarios
34
Indiaataturningpoint:whichscenariowillemerge?
369.
Avisionofourfuture
3810.
ANewPath
40
Annexure
1:
ContendingWorldViews
42
Annexure
2:
TwelveChallengesforIndia
43
Annexure
3:
SystemsModeling
45
Annexure
4:
ElementsofaVisionofIndia
10
to
15
YearsHence
48
Annexure
5:
TheRoleofInnovation
49
page
1
f
52
 
1.ExecutiveSummary
IndianeedsanewPlantoacceleratemoreinclusiveandmoresustainable,yetfastergrowth.Theplanmustbeadeparturefromoldstructuresofthinkingandplanning.WhatIndia(andtheworld)willbelikeinthenext25yearswilldependontheideasthataredevelopedandappliedtodefineprogress,managedevelopment,andgovernsocieties.Iftheprevalent"theories-in-use"continuemuchlonger,theriskstotheenvironmentandtosocialharmonyareverylarge.EconomicextrapolationsthatarebeingmadeaboutthelikelysizesofChina's,India's,andtheglobaleconomyby2050mustbetemperedbyrecognitionofthesocietalandenvironmentalrisksthatarenowevidentandcanderailconventionalpatternsofeconomicgrowth.TheneedtosubstantiallychangeboththecontentandtheprocessofplanningrequiredthePlanningCommissiontoapplyinnovationsintheprocessofpreparingthe
iz"
Plan.Amongsttheseinnovationswastheadditionoftheprocessof"scenarioplanning"tothepreparationofthe
iz"
FiveYearPlan,sothattheeffectsofbroadersystemicforcescouldbeconsidered,andsothattheirconsequencescouldbecommunicatedinameaningfullanguagetoabroadersetofstakeholders.ThePlanningCommissionwassetupsixtyyearsago.Then,conditionsinthecountryandtheworldweresubstantiallydifferenttothosetoday.TherewasasinglepoliticalpartythatruledintheCenterandintheStates.Theprivatesectorwasverysmallthenandthestatehadtoprovidealmostallresourcestobuildtheeconomy.Moreover,Indiawasaclosedeconomy,notwellconnectedwiththeworld.Therefore,centralplanningwithcentralizedallocationsofresourceswasjustified.Sincethe1990s,theseconditionshavechanged.GlobalizationhasacceleratedandtheIndianeconomyhasopeneduptoo.Theprivatesectorhasbecomemuchlarger;itistheengineofgrowthfortheeconomy.TheIndianpoliticalfirmamenthasbecomemorediversifiedwithmanystrongregionalparties,andcoalitiongovernmentshavebecomethenormintheCenter.Therefore,centralizedplanningasbeforeislessuseful.Infact,somesayithasbecomeirrelevant.ThePlanningCommissionundertookareviewofitspurposeandperformancein2010throughconsultationswithstakeholdersandexpertsbeforeitcommencedpreparationsofthe
Approach
to
the
12th
Plan.
StakeholdersandexpertsagreedthatthePlanningCommissionmustchangeitsways.Surprisinglytheyalsosaidthatthepage
2
of
52

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