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Elway Poll 072312-GovRace

Elway Poll 072312-GovRace

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Published by Tom Kludt

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Published by: Tom Kludt on Jul 24, 2012
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07/24/2012

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Copying Not Permitted
 ©THE ELWAY POLL
07/23/12
 
T
hiswasnevergoingtobeeasyforRobMcKenna.Longconsideredthefront‐runnerintheraceforGovernor,theAttorneyGeneralistryingtodowhatnoRepublicanhasdonesince1980—getelectedGovernorofWashingtonstate.About1in5ofthestate’scurrentvoterswerenotyetbornin1980.Afterhavingledtheraceforthelastyear,McKennatrailedDemocratJayInsleeby43‐36%in
The
Elway 
Poll 
completedlastnight.Theracehadbeentighteningdespiterelativelylittlevisiblecampaignactivity.Therehasbeenonedebateandbothcandidatesrecentlywentupwithtelevisionspots,buttherehasnotbeenenoughpubliccampaigningtoexplainsodramaticashift.Sowhatisgoingon?An
Elway 
Poll 
fromoneyearagoprovidesaclueandillustratesMcKenna’schallenge.VoterswereaskedinourJuly2011surveywhethertheywereinclinedtovotefora“ConservativeRepublican,aModerateRepublican,aModerateDemocratoraLiberalDemocrat”forgovernortoreplaceChristineGregoire.Inthatsurvey48%saidtheywereinclinedtovotefortheDemocratcandidateand36%preferredtheRepublican.
That 
is
remarkably
similar
to
the
current 
survey.
McKennaledearlierthisyear,benefitingfromsuperiorrecognitionandorganization.Hehasbeeninstatewideelectedofficefor8yearsandpreparingforthisraceforyears.Asthecampaignhasbecomemorevisible,andvotershavebecomeawarethatthereisaDemoc‐raticandaRepublicancandidate,theraceappearstobereturningtothedefaultpartisanposition.Thepacelapisover.Lettheracebegin.Mostofthedifferencebetweenlastmonth’sfindingsandtheseisaccountedforbyacollapseinMcKennasupportamongIndependentvoters.McKennaledamongIndependentsby42‐29%inJune,butInsleeledIndependentsby31‐29%thismonth.Meanwhile,thenumberofundecidedInde‐pendentsjumpedfrom29%lastmonthto40%thismonth.SinceIndependentsarenecessarytowinninganelectionhere,thisvolatilityindicatesasee‐sawbat‐tletoNovember.InsleeisclearlybenefitingfrombeingtheDemocratintherace.Comparedtothe2011survey,how‐ever,heisstillunderperformingthegenericDemocrat.Bothcandidateshavesolidifiedtheirpartisanbase,althoughneitherhascompletelylockedtheirpartydown:

86%ofDemocratsintendedtovoteforInslee,butonly59%were“definite”Insleevoters.;

88%ofRepublicansintendedtovoteforMcKenna,butonly59%were“definite”McKennavoters.WhateversoftnesstheremaybenowinthepartisansupportisunlikelytomatterinNovember.Eachislikelytoreceivearound90%ofhisparty’svotes.ThattranslatesintoanadvantageforInslee,sincetherearemoreDemocratsthanRepublicansinWashington.Inthissurvey35%ofrespondentssaidtheywouldregisterasaDemocratifpartyregistrationwererequiredand27%saidRepublican.
 
23 JULY 2012
Inslee Takes Lead as McKenna Support Fades
©
THE ELWAY POLL
is intended for the exclusive use of its subscribers. The material contained herein may not be copied or disseminated without the written consent of Elway Research, Inc.Excerpts may be quoted with attribution.
 
GENERIC PREFERENCE 2011; REAL CHOICE 2012McKENNA v. INSLEE: FEB-JULY
282822
201821
242728
FEBJUNEJULY
DEFINITELY PROBABLY UNDEC PROBABLY DEFINITELY
McKENNAINSLEE
36 364843
1521
JULY 2011 JULY 2012
McKENNAvINSLEE  REPvDEM 
364245364043

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