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TO: House Majority PACFROM: Garin-Hart-Yang Research GroupDATE: July 24, 2012RE: Recent New York 1st CD Survey
On July 17 and 18, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted a surveyamong a representative sample of 407 likely general election voters (the marginof error is ±4.9 percentage points) in New York’s 1st CD.
Our survey resultsindicate that in this rematch of Congressman Bishop’s razor-thin victoryin 2010, the incumbent currently enjoys a sizeable lead over RandyAltschuler.
And Congressman Bishop maintains his wide lead even after surveyrespondents are provided positive descriptions of BOTH candidates.When asked whom they would support in the initial trial heat for U.S.Congress, Congressman Bishop garners a strong majority of the vote and holds asignificant lead over his opponent:One key factor in Bishop’s strong lead is the incumbent’s relatively solid image(45% positive, 27% negative), whereas his GOP challenger has a more polarizingimage (25% positive, 24% negative). In fact, Congressman Bishop’s “positive” rating among independents is MORE than double that of Altschuler’s, andBishop’s “positive” rating among Republicans is actually one point higher thanAltschuler’s.Congressman Bishop’s support outpaces that of other Democrats on theballot this November, and he runs far ahead of President Obama in this district(Obama 49%, Romney 44%).The depth of Congressman Bishop’s standing in the 1st CD is furtherevidenced after we present survey respondents with the following positivedescriptions of the congressional candidates:
Initial Trial Heat
%Tim Bishop 56Randy Altschuler 32Undecided 12