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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee The Mellman Group, Inc. Mazie Hirono Continues To Lead Hawaii Senate Race July 25, 2012

This analysis represents the findings of a survey of 800 voters representing the likely 2012 Hawaii general electorate who were interviewed by telephone July 18-22, 2012. The study uses a registration-based sample and has a margin of error of +/-3.8% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error is higher for subgroups.

U.S. Rep. Mazie Hirono holds a commanding lead over former Governor Linda Lingle in the race to succeed Senator Dan Akaka in the United States Senate. Hirono Continues To Lead Governor Linda Lingle In The Race For U.S. Senate Despite her television campaign, which includes launching her own network, former Governor Lingle has made no headway cutting into Hironos lead in this overwhelmingly Democratic state. Hirono leads Lingle by 19 points (52% Hirono, 33% Lingle), which represents a 4point drop in Lingles vote since our last survey, conducted in June (52% Hirono, 37% Lingle). Hironos lead is particularly strong among women (+24 Hirono), voters under 40 years old (+27 Hirono), and those at the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum (+30 Hirono). Hirono also doubles Lingles vote among self-described moderates (52% Hirono, 26% Lingle). Lingle has made absolutely no progress among Democrats, who make up 50% of the electorate, where she trails Hirono by an 80% to 9% margin. Indeed, Hirono garners more votes among Republicans (12%) than Lingle does among Democrats (9%).
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Hirono Is Much Better Liked Than Lingle Hirono is held in high regard by Hawaii voters, while Lingles image is quite mixed. Fifty-five percent (55%) have a favorable opinion of Hirono, while only 29% hold an unfavorable view. By contrast, voters render a split verdict on Lingle, with 47% viewing her favorably and 44% harboring unfavorable views Conclusion With less than four months to Election Day, Mazie Hirono continues to hold a commanding lead over Linda Lingle, with the former Governor failing to sway the Democrats she needs to win this overwhelmingly blue state. Lingles weakness is a function of her relative unpopularity and the Democratic orientation of the state. That combination puts huge obstacles in Lingles path, while the better-liked Hirono is further aided by the states partisan landscape.