July 19, 2012
Marino Vulnerable in Pennsylvania’s 10
Only 30% of voters would vote to re-elect the incumbent.
Voters in the 10th Congressional District are wide open to considering a replacement for Representative Tom Marino, and become significantly less likely to support him oncethey learn about his Democratic challenger, Phil Scollo.When asked whether they would vote to re-elect Marino,
only 30% of voters remain inhis camp, while 55% say they would consider someone else
. Such a low base of support means that there is plenty of room for a challenger. An incumbent typically wantshis re-elect to be over 40% to be confident going into an election.Dissatisfaction with Marino reaches across party lines. Only 22% of Independents werelikely to vote to reelect him. Even among his own party, Marino is having troubleconvincing his constituents to send him back to Washington.
47% of Republicanswould consider voting for someone else while only 36% would commit to supportingthe incumbent.
After hearing biographical statements about the two candidates, voters put Scollo wellwithin range of Marino, giving him 36% to Marino’s 44%. This shows not only that thereis fertile ground in flipping votes from Marino to Scollo, but that
undecided voters, withonly positive information about both candidates, are more likely to favor Scollo