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RESEARCH GROUP
MEMORANDUM
TO: FROM: DATE: RE: JOHN DELANEY FOR CONGRESS FREDERICK YANG APRIL 16, 2012
1724 C onn ec ti cut Ave nue , N. W . Wa sh ing ton , DC 20 009 T el: ( 20 2) 2 34- 557 0 F ax: ( 20 2) 2 32- 813 4 ww w. har tr es ear ch. com
From April 9 to 11, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among a representative sample of 402 general election voters (margin of error 5 percentage points). The survey results confirm that Congressman Roscoe Bartlett is extremely vulnerable, receiving sub-par ratings on several key measurements, and he already trails challenger John Delaney in the trial heat. Although it still is difficult to defeat an incumbent, the combination of the districts better Democratic performance AND Mr. Delaneys own strengths means that the 6th CD represents one of the better pick-up opportunities for Democrats in 2012. Bartletts Standing Congressman Bartlett receives severely below-average ratings on key electoral measurements that indicate it will be difficult for him to put together an electoral majority, with even his fellow Republicans showing a lack of enthusiasm. Just 30% of 6th CD voters give Bartlett a POSITIVE rating of excellent or good for his performance as congressman, compared with a 44% plurality who rate his performance in the negative terms of only fair or poor. Perhaps more telling, just one-quarter (24%) of voters would prefer to reelect Roscoe Bartlett to another term, whereas 50% would prefer to elect someone else. Although we expect Bartlett to win a strong share of Republicans in November, a notable sign of the lack of enthusiasm for Bartlett is that even registered Republicans are divided over whether he should be reelected (42% reelect, 42% someone else). Bartletts challenge is two-fold. First, the 6th CD is unquestionably more competitive for Democrats. Second, and perhaps more important, the antiincumbency that is palpable in national surveys is hurting Bartlett (who has served in Congress since 1992) at home: 6th CD voters say by two to one they would prefer to elect new people to Congress (48%) versus reelecting incumbents who have a proven record of helping people (24%).