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M E M O R A N D U M
16, 2012RE: R
From April 9 to 11, 2012, Garin-Hart-Yang conducted a survey among arepresentative sample of 402 general election voters (margin of error ±5percentage points). The survey results confirm that Congressman RoscoeBartlett is extremely vulnerable, receiving sub-par ratings on several keymeasurements, and he already trails challenger John Delaney in the trialheat. Although it still is difficult to defeat an incumbent, the combination of the district’s better Democratic performance AND Mr. Delaney’s ownstrengths means that the 6th CD represents one of the better pick-upopportunities for Democrats in 2012.Bartlett’s StandingCongressman Bartlett receives severely below-average ratings on keyelectoral measurements that indicate it will be difficult for him to puttogether an electoral majority, with even his fellow Republicans showing alack of enthusiasm.
Just 30% of 6th CD voters give Bartlett a POSITIVE rating of excellentor good for his performance as congressman, compared with a 44%plurality who rate his performance in the negative terms of only fair orpoor.
Perhaps more telling, just one-quarter (24%) of voters would prefer toreelect Roscoe Bartlett to another term, whereas 50% would prefer toelect someone else. Although we expect Bartlett to win a strong shareof Republicans in November, a notable sign of the lack of enthusiasmfor Bartlett is that even registered Republicans are divided overwhether he should be reelected (42% reelect, 42% someone else).Bartlett’s challenge is two-fold. First, the 6th CD is unquestionably morecompetitive for Democrats. Second, and perhaps more important, the anti-incumbency that is palpable in national surveys is hurting Bartlett (who hasserved in Congress since 1992) at home: 6th CD voters say by two to onethey would prefer to elect new people to Congress (48%) versus reelectingincumbents who have a proven record of helping people (24%).