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NY-19 GSG for Julian Schreibman (July 2012)

NY-19 GSG for Julian Schreibman (July 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Jul 31, 2012
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Schreibman for Congress Campaign
Jefrey Pollock, Jeffrey Plaut
July Survey Results
July 31, 2012
The race for Congress in the 19 
District presents a real opportunity for Julian Schreibman to win this seat. Chris Gibson is not well 
defined in voters’ minds, and beyond his biography, doesn’t have a lot to offer voters
who are concerned about jobs,middle class tax cuts, health care and local issues.
Chris Gibson currently holds a modest ten point lead, 42% to 32%, over Julian Schreibman.
Schreibman is all but unknown in most of the district (his familiarity is only 19%),which is why he has more room for growth among a very persuadableelectorate.
Gibson is weak on several measures:
Gibson is only familiar to 46% of voters in the district, and in the new part of thedistrict
which makes up more than half of the district as a whole
only 31% of voters are familiar with him. In other words, half the district is essentially anopen seat, given the low level of familiarity with the incumbent.
Gibson’s positive job rating is only 28% while his negative rating is 39%.
He has a re-elect score of only 27%.
The survey shows that Gibson is vulnerable on numerous issue areas. In fact, followingnegative messages against Gibson,
his support collapses to 33%, while Schreibman’s vote
share climbs to 47% following positive messages for him and negative messages againstGibson.
Although this is a simulation, it demonstrates pretty conclusively that a large partof the electorate can be moved with a strong campaign from Schreibman.
Party registration is a toss-up, with Democrats at 32%, Republicans at 35% andIndependents at 33%.
There is a chance that there could be a tailwind from the top of the ticket here as PresidentObama leads Mitt Romney in the district by seven points, 46% to 39%.
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey among 402 likely general election voters in the19
Congressional District from July 18-22, 2012. The margin of error on the overall sampleis +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error on sub-samples may be larger.

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