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NY-19 GSG for Julian Schreibman (July 2012)

NY-19 GSG for Julian Schreibman (July 2012)

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Published by Daily Kos Elections

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Published by: Daily Kos Elections on Jul 31, 2012
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07/31/2012

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1
TO:
Schreibman for Congress Campaign
FROM:
Jefrey Pollock, Jeffrey Plaut
RE:
July Survey Results
DATE:
July 31, 2012
The race for Congress in the 19 
th 
District presents a real opportunity for Julian Schreibman to win this seat. Chris Gibson is not well 
defined in voters’ minds, and beyond his biography, doesn’t have a lot to offer voters
who are concerned about jobs,middle class tax cuts, health care and local issues.
Findings
 
Chris Gibson currently holds a modest ten point lead, 42% to 32%, over Julian Schreibman.
o
Schreibman is all but unknown in most of the district (his familiarity is only 19%),which is why he has more room for growth among a very persuadableelectorate.
Gibson is weak on several measures:
 
o
Gibson is only familiar to 46% of voters in the district, and in the new part of thedistrict
 –
which makes up more than half of the district as a whole
 –
only 31% of voters are familiar with him. In other words, half the district is essentially anopen seat, given the low level of familiarity with the incumbent.
 
o
 
Gibson’s positive job rating is only 28% while his negative rating is 39%.
 
o
He has a re-elect score of only 27%.
 
The survey shows that Gibson is vulnerable on numerous issue areas. In fact, followingnegative messages against Gibson,
his support collapses to 33%, while Schreibman’s vote
share climbs to 47% following positive messages for him and negative messages againstGibson.
 
o
Although this is a simulation, it demonstrates pretty conclusively that a large partof the electorate can be moved with a strong campaign from Schreibman.
 
Party registration is a toss-up, with Democrats at 32%, Republicans at 35% andIndependents at 33%.
 
There is a chance that there could be a tailwind from the top of the ticket here as PresidentObama leads Mitt Romney in the district by seven points, 46% to 39%.
 
Global Strategy Group conducted a survey among 402 likely general election voters in the19
th
Congressional District from July 18-22, 2012. The margin of error on the overall sampleis +/-4.9% at the 95% confidence level. The margin of error on sub-samples may be larger.
 

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