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July 31, 2012
EXASERVICEECTORROWTHLOWS
Texas service sector activity expanded, albeit at a slower pace in July, according to business executives responding to theTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, fell from 10.9 to2.4, its lowest reading since May 2011.Labor market indicators reflected some labor demand growth and slightly longer workweeks. The employment index edgedup from 7.8 to 8.6 in July, and the hours worked index rose from 1 to 3.5.Perceptions of broader economic conditions didn’t change much in July. The general business activity index moved up from7.3 to a reading of 8. The company outlook index held steady at 2, with 20 percent of respondents reporting their outlooksimproved from last month and 18 percent noting they worsened.Upward pressure on selling prices eased, and wage growth slowed in July. The selling prices index came in at 1.1, its lowestreading since December 2010, while the wages and benefits index fell to 14.2 from 16.4.Indexes of future service sector activity were flat or slightly up in July. The future revenue index edged up less than onepoint to 28.1. Broader measures of economic activity stayed positive. The index of future general business activity rosefrom 5.8 to 10.1, and the index of future company outlook moved down from 11.3 to 8.9, its lowest reading in 10 months.
ETAILALESEAKEN
Retail sales fell in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Retail Outlook Survey. The sales indexmoved down from 7 to -3.6, its first negative reading since May 2011. Inventories rose.Labor market indicators reflected slightly less hiring and longer workweeks. The employment index edged down from 13.3in June to 12.3 in July. The hours worked index climbed to 4.5 after being negative last month.Perceptions of general business conditions worsened in July. The general business activity index turned negative for thefirst time in 10 months, falling 10 points to -6.5. The company outlook index also fell into negative territory, slipping to -5.6after a reading of 0.7 last month. Thirteen percent of respondents noted their company’s outlook had improved from theprior month, compared with 18 percent who reported their outlook had worsened.Retail prices fell, but wage growth held steady. The selling prices index declined from 6.5 to -0.7, its first negative reading since July 2010. The wages and benefits index came in at a reading of 5.8, similar to June. The great majority of respondents continued to note no change in labor costs.Indexes of future retail sector activity remained in positive territory in July. Perceptions of future economic conditionsstayed positive and have been stable for the last three months. The index of future general business activity moved downabout two points, while the index of future company outlook held steady.
The Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS) is a component of the TSSOS that uses information only fromrespondents in the retail and wholesale sectors.
The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’sservice sector activity. Data were collected July 17–25, and 221 Texas business executives responded to the survey. Firmsare asked whether revenue, employment, prices, general business activity and other indicators increased, decreased orremained unchanged over the previous month.August 28, 2012
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey1
EXASERVICEECTORUTLOOKURVEY
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in TexasCurrent
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRevenue2.410.9-8.5Increasing3326.748.924.3Employment8.67.8+0.8Increasing2918.871.010.2Part-time employment2.43.1-0.7Increasing1110.381.87.9Hours worked3.51.0+2.5Increasing1711.081.57.5Wages and benefits14.216.4-2.2Increasing3616.880.62.6Input prices21.518.8+2.7Increasing3926.169.34.6Selling prices1.14.6-3.5Increasing1911.977.310.8Capital expenditures14.416.7-2.3Increasing3522.769.08.3
General Business ConditionsCurrent
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook2.02.6-0.6Improving1120.062.018.0General business activity8.07.3+0.7Improving924.958.116.9
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in TexasSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRevenue28.127.2+0.9Increasing4147.233.719.1Employment21.417.6+3.8Increasing4035.251.013.8Part-time employment10.0-0.9+10.9Increasing118.772.68.7Hours worked6.96.8+0.1Increasing3512.881.35.9Wages and benefits30.534.4-3.9Increasing6734.461.73.9Input prices44.440.2+4.2Increasing6747.249.92.8Selling prices14.418.2-3.8Increasing3626.062.411.6Capital expenditures19.417.8+1.6Increasing4032.055.512.6
General Business ConditionsSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook8.911.3-2.4Improving1126.755.517.8General business activity10.15.8+4.3Improving1026.457.316.3*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero,indicator is unchanged.**Number of months moving in current direction.Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey2
EXASETAILUTLOOKURVEY
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas, RetailCurrent
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRetail Activity in TexasSales-3.67.0-10.6Decreasing125.745.029.3Employment12.313.3-1.0Increasing1217.776.95.4Part-time employment3.44.9-1.5Increasing66.790.03.3Hours worked4.5-8.2+12.7Increasing114.176.39.6Wages and benefits5.85.0+0.8Increasing238.489.02.6Input prices5.28.2-3.0Increasing2416.672.011.4Selling prices-0.76.5-7.2Decreasing113.272.913.9Capital expenditures11.315.6-4.3Increasing1619.472.68.1Inventories14.98.6+6.3Increasing1326.162.711.2Companywide Retail ActivitySales10.616.0-5.4Increasing1429.451.818.8Internet sales-2.111.3-13.4Decreasing18.580.910.6Catalog sales2.65.1-2.5Increasing27.787.25.1
General Business Conditions, RetailCurrent
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook-5.60.7-6.3Worsening112.669.218.2General business activity-6.54.6-11.1Worsening119.354.925.8
Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas, RetailSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Increase%Reporting No Change%Reporting DecreaseRetail Activity in TexasSales41.233.4+7.8Increasing4153.733.812.5Employment10.117.7-7.6Increasing3123.762.713.6Part-time employment9.34.8+4.5Increasing1016.376.77.0Hours worked6.18.2-2.1Increasing3411.982.35.8Wages and benefits26.622.3+4.3Increasing4329.567.62.9Input prices33.929.0+4.9Increasing3937.359.33.4Selling prices23.727.4-3.7Increasing3933.955.910.2Capital expenditures11.816.4-4.6Increasing1623.764.411.9Inventories20.516.8+3.7Increasing3231.557.511.0Companywide Retail ActivitySales41.734.2+7.5Increasing4051.937.910.2Internet sales22.831.9-9.1Increasing4027.368.24.5Catalog sales8.17.9+0.2Increasing213.581.15.4
General Business Conditions, RetailSix Months Ahead
IndicatorJulIndexJunIndexChangeIndicatorDirection*Trend**(months)%Reporting Improved%Reporting No Change%Reporting WorsenedCompany outlook18.718.6+0.1Improving3927.962.99.2General business activity8.710.5-1.8Improving1025.457.916.7*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero,indicator is unchanged.**Number of months moving in current direction.Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.
Federal Reserve Bank of DallasTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey3
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